Accelerating improvements in the accuracy

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• Accelerating improvements in the accuracy
• of one-day to two weeks high-impact weather
  forecasts
• for the benefit of society and economy

2003
2013
A photographic collage depicting the societal,
economic and ecological impacts of severe weather
associated with four Rossby wave-trains that
encircled the globe during November 2002.
Generic Presentation
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What is THORPEX?

• THORPEX was established in May 2003 by the
  Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress as a
  ten-year international global atmospheric
  research and development programme under the
  auspices of the WMO Commission for Atmospheric
  Sciences (CAS)
• THORPEX is a component programme of the WMO World
  Weather Research Programme (WWRP)

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Why?

• To reduce and mitigate natural disasters
• To fully realise the societal and economic
  benefits of improved weather forecasts
• especially in developing and least developed
  countries.
• This is achievable by transforming timely and
  accurate weather forecasts(1) into specific and
  definite information in support of decisions(2)
  that produce the desired societal and economic
  outcomes(3)
• Extending the range of skilful weather forecasts
  to time scales of value in decision-making (up to
  14 days) using probabilistic ensemble forecast
  techniques
• Developing accurate and timely weather warnings
  in a form that can be readily used in
  decision-making support tools
• Assessing the impact of weather forecasts and
  associated outcomes on the development of
  mitigation strategies to minimise the impact of
  natural hazards.

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What will it do?

• THORPEX will conduct a series of regional and
  global projects including various experiments on
  targeted satellite and in-situ observations(1),
  data assimilation(2), numerical weather
  prediction systems(3) and demonstrations of
  social and economic outcomes(4)
• Advance the knowledge of global-to-regional
  influences on the initiation, evolution, and
  predictability of high-impact weather Design the
  strategy for interactive forecasting and targeted
  observations thus contributing to the process of
  evolving the WMO Global Observing System (GOS)
  which is recognized as a core component of future
  Global Earth Observation System of Systems
  (GEOSS)
• Create and evaluate systems for the assimilation
  of targeted observations from satellites and
  in-situ measurements
• Accelerate improvements of the accuracy of
  weather forecasts test and demonstrate
  effectiveness of a multinational multi-model
  multi-analysis global ensemble forecasting
  system
• Improve and demonstrate decision support tools,
  which utilise advanced forecasting products, in
  the most representative social and economic
  sectors.
• THORPEX aims to inform the development of the
  future operational interactive forecast system

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Where?

• Globally, focusing specifically on the
  extra-tropical and tropical Pacific and Atlantic,
  the Pacific-Indian Ocean warm pool, and Polar
  regions.

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Who participates and benefits?

• National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
  (operational forecast and research entities)
• Academic institutions
• Consumers of products and services
• International organizations (ECMWF, EUMETNET,
  etc.), Initiatives (International Polar Year,
  GEO) and
• Other contributors (e.g. electricity generators,
  water resource agencies, foreign assistance
  agencies, etc.)
• The THORPEX programme activities are supported
  through voluntary contributions of the
  Governments of the WMO Members participating to
  THORPEX including donations to the THORPEX Trust
  Fund established by WMO.

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How is it Organised?

• The CAS International Core Steering Committee
  (ICSC) and International Science Steering
  Committee (ISSC) lead THORPEX in coordination
  with
• CAS Science Steering Committee for WWRP
• Joint CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical
  Experimentation (WGNE), and the
• WMO Commission for Basic Systems (CBS).
• North American, European and Asian Regional
  Committees coordinate regional activities.

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Implementation

• The THORPEX Implementation Plan (TIP) will guide
  the execution
• of the programme. The TIP is dynamic, evolving as
  the science
• opportunities and national priorities evolve. The
  TIP
• - Defines THORPEX deliverables based on the
  expectations of the operational meteorological
  community, research scientific opportunities and
  the availability of resources
• Follows the THORPEX International Science Plan
  and the regional science plans for Asia, Europe,
  North America and other regions or nations
  whenever their contribution to THORPEX is
  defined
• Defines milestones and deliverables from each of
  the THORPEX participants
• Identifies opportunities for collaboration
  between THORPEX and other WMO programmes (such as
  WWW, Programme on Natural Disasters Reduction and
  Mitigation, WMO Space Programme, WCRP, WCP, HWR,
  AMP) and initiatives (e.g. International Polar
  Year 2007-2008, GEO)
• Defines decision points and the necessary steps
  to carry out THORPEX research and development
• Facilitates the transition of results to
  operations within the Members organizations.

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Principal Tasks

• Principal tasks will be addressed throughout
  the lifetime of the programme. They are
  identified within the four THORPEX research sub
  programmes described in the THORPEX International
  Science Plan
• Predictability and Dynamical Processes
• Observing Systems
• Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies
• Societal and Economic Applications
• Full version of THORPEX International Science
  Plan
• www.wmo.int/thorpex/mission.html

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Predictability And Dynamical Processes

• Predictive skill
• Investigate the effect of dynamical and physical
  processes on forecast skill
• Determine the influence of flow regimes on the
  climatology of forecast skill
• Assess predictive skill at all forecast ranges,
  including potential predictability
• Ensemble predictions
• Quantify the contributions of initial condition
  and model uncertainty to forecast errors
• Investigate the relative effects of small and
  large-scale initial-condition uncertainty
• Develop improved ensemble-prediction systems,
  including a THORPEX Interactive Grand Global
  Ensemble (TIGGE) Prediction System
• Sub-seasonal predictive skill

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Observing System

• Develop and test new airborne delivery systems
  for deploying in situ sensors
• Carry out field-demonstrations of prototype
  remote -sensing systems for future airborne and
  satellite deployments

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Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies

• Improved use of observation
• Quantify observing system errors
• Develop methods for efficient utilisation of
  high-volume datasets
• Improve use of satellite observations
• Improve assimilation of physical processes
• Targeting techniques
• Refine targeting strategies
• Generalise existing targeting techniques
• Test targeting algorithms for a wide range of
  weather systems
• Design observational networks
• Adaptive Data Assimilation
• Improve background-error covariances in existing
  assimilation schemes
• Develop methods for cycling flow-dependent
  background errors
• Develop adaptive quality control
• Incorporate model uncertainty into data
  assimilation procedures

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Social Economic Applications

• Social and economic value of weather forecasts
• Identify high-impact weather forecasts
• Assess the impact of improved forecast systems
• Develop advanced forecast verification measures
• Estimate costs and benefits of improved forecast
  systems
• Develop new user-specific weather products

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Demonstration Projects

• Demonstrate social and economic benefits that
  would result from the operational implementation
  of new forecasting tools and techniques
• Disaster mitigation and reduction in developing
  and least developed countries (e.g., Flood
  response)
• Economic efficiency in developed countries (e.g.
  Energy generation)
• 4 components to these projects
• The ensemble forecasting system, which provides a
  probabilistic forecast
• An interpreted weather forecast
• Decision support tools derived from the
  probabilistic forecast and
• Evaluation of the use of the decision support
  tool.

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THORPEX and international initiatives

• THORPEX is the meteorological component of the
  International Polar Year 2007-2008
• Atmospheric predictability in the Polar Regions
• Improving use of satellite and in situ data from
  high latitudes
• THORPEX is a user of the Global Earth Observation
  System of Systems (GEOSS)
• - Design the strategy for interactive forecasting
  and targeted observations. Definition of when,
  where, what type and how earth observations
  maximally improve the skill of forecasting to
  create more accurate user-specific products.
• Contributing to the process of evolving the WMO
  Global Observing System (GOS) - a core component
  of future Global Earth Observation System of
  Systems (GEOSS).

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THORPEX Management

• WMO/CAS ICSC
• Senior representatives of leading nations
• Chairs of regional committees
• Chairs of relevant programmes committees
• SSC/WWRP, JSC for WCRP, WWW-CBS, PWS, ISSC
• Senior representatives of participating
  international organisations
• ECMWF, IOC, ICSU, EUMETNET, and others
• Coordinators of major THORPEX sub-programmes
• Leaders of demonstration projects
• Regional Committees
• National entities
• Task Force for other programmes and initiatives
  involving THORPEX
• IPY, GEO,
• WMO Secretariat
• International Programme Office
• Central and distributed functions