Hong Kong is a beautiful city

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Hong Kong is a beautiful city
AIR POLLUTION IN HONG KONG and the PEARL RIVER
DELTA
However, sometimes less so
AJ Hedley1, SM McGhee1, W Barron2, PYK Chau1,
J Chau1, TQ Thach1, TW Wong3, C Loh4, CM Wong1
1 University of Hong Kong 2 University of
Science and Technology 3 Chinese University of
Hong Kong 4 Civic Exchange
Sunday 1 August 2004
Tuesday 4 January 2005
Photo Edward Stokes Hong Kong Conservation
Photography Foundation
Photo Edward Stokes Hong Kong Conservation
Photography Foundation
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BAD AIR, BAD PRESS
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HONG KONG IS WORSE THAN MOST CITIES
Pollution (RSP)
Shanghai, Guangzhou 2004 (99)
(microgram per cubic meter)
Hong Kong roadside 2004 (80)
Hong Kong 2004 (62)
Hong Kong AQO
Los Angeles 2003 (44)
London 2005 (30)
New York 2003 (22)
WHO AQG
Paris 2003 (21)
Vancouver 2004 (13)
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Monthly concentration of PM10 in year 2001-05
Concentration (mg/m3)
Hong Kong PM10 AQO (annual) 55
Proposed WHO PM10 (annual) 20
Roadside General
Time
Source Environmental Protection Department/
Department of Community Medicine HKU
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The Hong Kong air quality intervention 1990
Before After
Kwai Tsing
On July 1st 1990 the Environmental Protection
Department restricted the sulphur content of fuel
to 0.5 by weight
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AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS 1988 - 95 IN HONG
KONG
HALF YEARLY MEAN LEVELS
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Effect of conversion to low sulfur fuel (0.5)
on transition metals
mbefore24.73 mafter 3.95 p 0.000
mbefore9.48 mafter 2.87 p 0.000
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Reductions in cardiopulmonary deaths after sulfur
restriction 1990
0
-1
-2
-1.6
-1.8
-2.4
Reduction in annual trend
-3
-2.8
-4
-4.2
-5
-4.8
-6
15-64
65
15-64
65
15-64
65
All causes
Cardiovascular
Respiratory
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Monthly Trends of SO2, Ni, V in Year 2001-04
SO2
V
Ni
p0.001
Concentration (SO2 mg/m3 V/Ni ng/m3)
p0.129
p0.048
Month
Data source HKEPD Plotting Chau/Hedley 2006
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Hong Kong Annual decline in visibility
Hazy days
Number per year
Year
Source Hong Kong Observatory
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An analysis directed to GovernmentLegislators,
media and public

• Understanding the connection between visibility,
  air pollution and health costs
• in pursuit of accountability, environmental
  justice and health protection

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Visibility and pollutants in Hong Kong
MICROGRAM PER CUBIC METER
Source of data Environmental Protection
Department
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Hourly visibility on the days the photographs
were taken
Source of data Hong Kong Observatory
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Four levels of air quality General and roadside
Based on general monitoring stations except the
background monitoring station at Tap Mun Chau
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Potential improvements in air quality in Hong
Kong
of days at these levels in Hong Kong
Pollution
2
(microgram per cubic meter)
Poor
100
43
average to better
80
Hong Kong2004 (62)
Average
60
44
40
Better
8
20
Good
2
average to good
0
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Doctor visits, hospital admissions and
deaths Excess risks and avoidable events

• From time series, excess risks of
• family doctor visits
• hospital admissions for cardiopulmonary
  disease
• all causes mortality
• For each pollutant (P) we estimated the impact
  (I), as avoidable events for each health outcome,
  from air quality improvement as
• NI ERP LP IP Avoidable events
• and
• IP CI Avoidable costs

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UNIT COSTS IN ESTIMATION OF AVOIDABLE COSTS

• From gazetted public sector and surveys costs of
• in-patient and ambulatory care
• travel costs
• productivity loss
• From surveys, willingness-to-pay to avoid
• symptoms (cough) day
• hospital admission
• death

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Estimation of health impact and costs Single or
multiple pollutants?

• In Shanghai, Wuhan and Hong Kong the largest
  mortality excess risks are for NO2 and SO2,
  robust in 2-pollutant models
• The Hong Kong sulfur restriction led to reduction
  in mortality of 1 per 10µg/m3 SO2 in the absence
  of change in RSP, NO2 and O3
• In Hong Kong the largest effect on hospital
  admissions for cardiopulmonary disease is
  associated with NO2 in London with RSP

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Correlation between pollutants
(1-0.7682) 0.41 NO2
(1-0.0672 0.392) 0.84 SO2
Partial correlation between NO2 and SO2 adjusted
by RSP
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Estimating the total contribution of pollutants
to the burden of health effects and costs

• Main estimate
• T RSP 0.41 NO2 0.84 SO2 O3
• Sensitivity analysis
• At least impact-highest single pollutant effect
• for each outcome
• RSP O3 (WHO 2003)
• SO2 intervention effect (mortality)

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Avoidable events Deaths
Pollution
(microgram per cubic meter)
Poor
Hong Kong2004
100
80
Average
60
1,300
40
Better
Good
20
0
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Avoidable events Hospital bed days
Pollution
(microgram per cubic meter)
Poor
Hong Kong2004
100
80
Average
60
60,000
40
Better
Good
20
0
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Avoidable events Doctor visits
Pollution
(microgram per cubic meter)
Poor
Hong Kong2004
100
80
Average
60
6,700,000
40
Better
Good
20
0
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Annual Value of air quality improvement
Direct health costs productivity loss avoided
Intangible costs for pain suffering
Total US2250M
Total US246M
US M
US M

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Results of sensitivity analysis on annual
avoidable mortality and costs if pollution levels
reduce from Average to Good levels
Mortality NO2 Admissions NO2 Family doctor
visits RSP
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THE HKSAR GOVERNMENT RESPONSE

• The costs are indirect
• Other cities have worse levels of pollution
• More evidence is needed on health effects
• People need to understand that
  clearer skies may cost consumers more

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RSP Projected trends in Hong Kong
Roadside Reach HK AQO Year 2008 Reach Canadian
guideline Year 2015 Reach NZ guideline Year
2016
Canada guideline (24hr) 25
NZ guideline (annual) 20
Non-roadside Reach HK AQO Year 1996 Reach
Canada guideline Year 2026 Reach NZ guideline
After year 2031
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THE NEED for EFFECTIVE MULTI-SECTORAL STRATEGIES

• Local and regional sources
• Near term technical solutions
• Mid term technical priorities
• Long term structural solutions
• Cleaner fuels Urban design
• Euro IV V Manufacturing
• Flue gas sulpurization Power sector
• Rail rather than roads Transport

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Hong Kong 1987 Air Quality Objectives
Hong Kong AQO 1987 WHO AQG 2006
Hong Kong (2004) Average Pollutant Levels
150
SO2
100
NO2 (Roadside)
HK
80
NO2
RSP (Roadside)
60
RSP/NO2 (General)
PM10
40
NO2
WHO
20
PM10 /SO2
10
PM2.5
0
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Reduction in Bronchial Hyper-Reactivity
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Nitrogen Dioxide
Roadside Reach HK AQO Year 2010 Reach Euro
guideline After year 2030
HK Air Quality Objective (annual) 80
Euro guideline 40
Non-roadside Reach Euro guideline Year 2017
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Visibility and pollutants in Hong Kong
MICROGRAM PER CUBIC METER
Source of data Environmental Protection
Department