The Carbon Reduction Project

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Whose Planet? Whose Future?
Bury St Edmunds 5th May 2005
The Carbon Reduction Project Hard
Choices Ahead
CRed
Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy
Science Director Low Carbon Innovation
Centre School of Environmental Sciences
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Whose Planet? Whose Future?

• The facts about Global Warming
• Options for Energy Supply
• The Hard Choices we have to make
• What can we do? What can you do?

WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/
This presentation will be available from tomorrow
at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm
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Future Global Warming Rates
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Change in precipitation 1961-2001
Source Tim Osborne, CRU
Total summer precipitation
Total winter precipitation
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Is Global Warming man made?
Prediction Natural only good match until 1960
Prediction Anthropogenic only Not a good match
between 1920 and 1970

• Predictions include
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity

Prediction Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a
good match
Source Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
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Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
• Nasa satellite imagery

• 20 reduction in 24 years

Source Nasa http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/n
ews/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
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Difficult Choices Ahead
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Non-Renewable Methods
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable

• Transport Fuels
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
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It is all very well for South East, but what
about the North?
House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles - less than
15,000 people live north of this in UK!
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Our Choices They are difficult

• Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e
  onshore/offshore wind and biomass.
  Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for
  next 20 years.
• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy on this and the
  other attendant risks?

• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise
  significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration
  within 10 years which is unlikely

If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave
things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and
electricity generation? gtgtgtgtgtgt
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Our Choices They are difficult

• If our answer is YES
• By 2020
• we will be dependent on around 70 of our
  heating and electricity from GAS
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran,
  Iraq, Libya, Algeria
• Are we happy with this prospect? gtgtgtgtgtgt

If not We need even more substantial cuts in
energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our
future to effects of Global Warming? - the
North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on
renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making
will lead us down the GAS option route and all
the attendant Security issues that raises.
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Our Choices They are difficult
A diverse renewable supply will be local, and
will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as
those recently in US, London, Italy,
Denmark. Conventional generation is based on
large units 500 660 MW enough to supply over
1 million homes. These do fail from time to
time, and require much greater backup than
required for the failure of a few wind
turbines. Renewable generation is less prone to
major interruption
We must not get drawn into a single issue debate
a rational debate covering all the
alternatives is needed. Available Renewables
Nuclear Conservation
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Our Choices They are difficult

• NETA has to cope with the loss of Sizewell B
  through a reactor trip. This loss amounts to
  around 1.5 times the total installed capacity of
  wind at present.
• NETA also has to cope with sudden changes in
  demand (up to 2.5 times Sizewell B) in a matter
  of minutes e.g. from TV scheduling.
• Experience from Denmark shows that the normal
  maximum change in any one hour from Wind Output
  is no more than 18 on one occasion in a year.
  With a larger country area the figures for
  diverse wind generation will be less in UK.

Renewable Energy The Issues Isnt Energy from
Renewables unreliable? we need secure supply

• One will not save Carbon Dioxide because power
  stations are running in case they are needed.
• There is very little truth in this. The
  amount of carbon dioxide emitted is dependant on
  the output of a fossil fuel power station. If
  it is running under low load it will emit only a
  very small amount of extra CO2.
• Allowing for this, the effect of standby
  reserve will amount to a maximum of 15 20 gms
  per kWh of Wind Energy compared to 430 for gas or
  1000 for coal.
• A substantial saving is made.

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Our Choices They are difficult

• Latest some evidence to suggest that a few
  birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW
  per year except in a few locations.
• the oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill
  has an RSPB reserve right next to it.
• in Orkney a party from UEA came across new
  fewer than 3 dead birds on roads in 2 days in
  area around turbines.
• Currently UK has around 850 MW installed
  perhaps 2500 killed a year
• Estimates of 1 million killed each year by
  vehicles
• British Trust for Ornithology estimate 100
  million birds collide with fixed objects of whom
  one third are killed

Wind Energy The Issues Wind Turbines kill birds
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Our Choices They are difficult

• Affect House Prices
• Evidence from Estate Agents in the Swaffham
  Area say they have a positive effect on house
  prices.

Whilst the wind turbine is considered 'ugly' by
some residents of Swaffham, most consider it a
unique landmark and see it as an asset to the
town. Most of the local population are proud of
the turbine and it seems to have had a positive
impact on the town in a number of ways.
I do believe that were it not for the number of
visitors to Swaffham, coming to see the turbine
for whatever reason, we would not have such a
high influx of buyers from out of the area. This
has increased house prices, and the prosperity of
the area.
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Our Choices They are difficult
Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient
Efficiency the ratio of the USEFUL work to
the total energy available (or expended) Oxford
English Dictionary
Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 42 of
available energy in the wind Modern Coal Fired
Power Stations achieve 38 Sizewell B achieves
32 A car engine achieve 30 at best
Compared to many other energy devices, Wind
Turbines are Very Efficient
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Our Choices They are difficult

• Wind Turbines are beautiful!
• Wind Turbines are Ugly!
• What is the consequence of not using wind
  alongside conservation, biomass etc?.
• Insecure supply of Electricity when we import
  fossil fuels from Russia
• The North Norfolk Coal Field
• Increased Famine
• 20 new nuclear power stations in the UK by 2025
• Increased incidence of extreme weather events.

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Government Response

• Energy White Paper aspiration for 60 cut in
  CO2 emissions by 2050
• Will require unprecedented partnership activity
  in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s
• ( but no indication of how this will be
  undertaken)

There will be much more local generation, in
part from medium to small local/community power
plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from
locally generated waste, and from local wind
sources. These will feed local distributed
networks, which can sell excess capacity into the
grid. - Energy White Paper February 2003
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The CRed ambition

• To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse
  community to debate, plan and execute a programme
  to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60 by 2025
• Can a local community take on the
  responsibility for starting to confront the
  challenge of climate change and make a
  difference?
• Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere
  else?
• Can we encourage politicians/officials to be
  bolder on our behalf?
• It will involve an integrated approach to use
  of renewables alongside conservation
• exemplar for the world

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On average each person in UK causes the emission
of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks
like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year. 490 000
each year for St Edmundsbury
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Some facts
A mobile phone charger left on even when not
charging up to 20 kg CO2 a year Standby on
television gt 60 kg per year Filling up with
petrol (30 for a full tank)
--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5 of one
balloon) How far does one have to drive in a
small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to
emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
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Involve the local Community

• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney)
  compaigned for a wind turbine.
• On average they are fully self-sufficient in
  electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter
  of electricity

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Electricity Statistics Kings Lynn and West
Norfolk

• Each house in Kings Lynn and West Norfolk
  consumes, on average 5908 kWh per year 59 more
  than a house in Norwich
• Kings Lynn and West Norfolk
• 813 kWh per year (390 million kWh domestic).
• A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply
  36 of domestic needs for whole of Kings Lynn
  and West Norfolk (or 17.5 of total demand)
• Would save 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon
  dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each
  year.
• The alternative
• Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car
  again
• Or 300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less
  each year.

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Hard Choices

• What can we do?
• What can you do?
• Visit the CRed WEB Site www.cred-uk.org
• Sign a pledge to
• combat global warming
• help secure energy supplies for the future
• by
• saving energy
• promoting appropriate renewable energy

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Conclusions

• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few
  decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly
  important. Inaction over making difficult
  decisions now will make Energy Security more
  likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL
  generation of energy
• It is as much about the individuals response
  to use of energy as any technical measures the
  Government may take.
• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real
  alternatives for renewable generation in next 5
  10 years.
• Otherwise Nuclear???
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming
  Energy Security issues will shortly start to
  affect us.
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make
  choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an
  old persons room