MILITARY OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM

1
MILITARY OPERATIONS RESEARCHAND OPERATION IRAQI
FREEDOM

• AMANDA PINGITOREDecember 10, 2003

2
Background

• During WWII, the military asked some engineers,
  scientists, and researchers to help them analyze
  and solve military problems involving the
  strategic allocation of scarce resources, the
  evaluation of equipment, and the evaluation of
  phases of war from action reports.

3
What do Military Operations Researchers do?

• Develop simulation models
• Develop technologies such as radar
• Create algorithms that can predict the success or
  failure of a battle

4
Questions

• Was there a better strategy that the U.S. could
  have taken in its campaign against Iraq?
• Were the casualties higher and outcomes different
  from what our government first expected?
• Was there a way to predict the wars successes
  and its casualties?

5
Solving Operations Research Problems

• Observe and Formulate Problem
• Construct Mathematical Model
• Model Validation
• Provide Understandable Suggestions

6
Some Types of Attrition Models

• High resolution each soldier and vehicle is
  represented as a single entity
• Low Resolution larger groups are used as single
  entities (battalions)
• Heterogeneous Lanchester Theory poses weapons
  systems v. weapons systems
• (predicts conflict success based on weapons)

7
HERO Land Warfare Database

• Created by Col. Trevor N. Dupuy
• Contains data from over 600 battles from
  1600-1973
• Many variables in the LWDB will need to be
  considered for my uses.

8
Types of Variables

• Independent determined before battle begins.
  (force sizes, operational variables, and
  environmental variables)
• Dependent these are the results of the battle
  (total advance, personnel casualties, armor
  losses)

9
Gantt Chart
10
Formulate Specific Problem/Gather Data

• After using an existing algorithm, will the
  number of predicted casualties match within an
  acceptable margin of error the actual number of
  casualties that occurred during the combat time
  period?
• If the predicted number of casualties is way off
  base, is it possible to adjust the existing
  algorithm in order to adapt it to work in this
  particular combat environment?

11
Choose/Construct Model

• The data I am able to collect will play a large
  part in which algorithm I choose.
• I will need to research many types of algorithms,
  but will choose one that gives me attrition
  rates.

12
Validation

• At this point, I will input the appropriate data
  into the combat model/algorithm I choose. I may
  need to adjust my model for my specific purposes.

13
Problems

• Force size (who to include)
• Actual casualties (only during declared combat?)
• Use caution when collecting data (victor records
  data, so it may be biased)

14
Draw Conclusions

• How do my results compare with the realities of
  the war and its outcomes?
• How did the outside factors influence/affect my
  results?
• Are my answers valid and supported by evidence?
• Are there any suggestions I could make to help
  prepare for future wars?