Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach

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Coming Hurricane Problems by
Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach
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2004 Hurricane Season
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2004 Storm Tracks
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Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts for
2004
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2004
1995-2003
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FRAN
OPAL
BRET
1995-2003 Intense Hurricane Tracks (32 tracks)
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Improvement in Variance Explained (r2) between
U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes and Landfall
Probabilities when Multiple Years are Grouped
Together
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Landfalls in Top 15 December NTC Jackknife
Hindcasts versus Landfalls in Bottom 15 December
NTC Jackknife Hindcasts
Top 15 Hindcasts
Bottom 15 Hindcasts
Category 1-2
Category 3-5
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Typical Relative Storm Damage
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United States Landfalls in Top 10 NTC Years
versus United States Landfalls in Bottom 10 NTC
Years
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Atlantic Multi-Decadal Major-Hurricane
Variability
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Cause of Variability ---- Altantic
Salinity Changes
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GREAT OCEAN CONVEYOR BELT
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North Atlantic SST Annual Anomaly (50oN-60oN
50oW-10oW)
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2005-2020
1995-04
?
1926
1969
0.5
0
- 0.5
1925
1970
1994
-1
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
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TRACKS OF CATEGORY 3-4-5 HURRICANES
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August-October Average SST Differences
(1995-2004) minus (1970-1994)
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THC - Strong
?
1860 1900
1940 1980
2020
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Next 15-20 Year Prediction of US Hurricane
Destruction
-- Great increase over that of the last 40 years!
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Forecast for 2005 (as of 1 April 2005) Phil
Klotzbach
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OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION
LATENT HEAT FLUX
SENSIBLE HEAT AND POTENTIAL ENERGY FLUX
ABSORBED SOLAR RADIATION
NET ENERGY BALANCE
SUBSURFACE HEAT STORAGE
THERMAL INERTIA
OCEAN HEAT FLUX
TEMPERATURE
Flow diagram for climate modeling, showing
feedback loops. From Robock
(1985).
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"YOU CAN SEE A LOT BY LOOKING."
- Yogi Berra
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1 April 2005 Predictors
November 500 mb Ht.
5
5
()
()
Feb. SST
4
()
6
Sep.-Nov. SLP
(-)
February SLP
1
(-)
3
Feb. 200 mb U
()
2
Feb.-March 200 mb V.
(-)

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The number of years that our tropical cyclone
forecasts issued at various lead times have
correctly predicted above- or below-average
activity for each predictand over the past six
years (1999-2004)
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2005 FORECAST AS OF 1 APRIL 2005
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2005 Updates Forecasts
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United States Landfalling Storms
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Current Tools Used to Issue U.S. Landfall
Probability Forecasts

• Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC ) Activity Forecast
• Measure of North Atlantic Sea Surface
  Temperatures (SSTA)

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PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY
3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS FOR 2005

• Entire U.S. coastline 73
  (average for last century
  is 52)
• 2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida -
  53 (average for last century is 31)
• 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle
  westward to Brownsville - 41
  (average for
  last century is 30)
• 4) Expected above-average major hurricane
  landfall risk in the Caribbean - Bahamas

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New Landfalling Hurricane Web Application

• Currently Available at the following URL

http//www.e-transit.org/hurricane
In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory
Bridgewater State College, Bridgewater MA
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Areas for which Landfall Probabilities are Issued
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REGION 5 - FLORIDA
H
(a)
P
H
P
(b)
M
S
(c)
C
L
(d)
C
(e)
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Data Currently Available in the Landfalling
Hurricane Probability Webpage
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REGION 2 - TEXAS LOUISIANA
H
A
J
C
L
O
C
J
V
C
(c)
(b)
(a)
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Future Work

• Monthly Probabilities
• User-Selected Probabilities (Daily, Weekly
  Periods)
• Potential Damage

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Related Topics

• Global Warming
• Improved Intensity Prediction

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HUMAN INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING
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GLOBAL MODELS
REALITY
WATER VAPOR CIRRUS
SUPPRESSION OF OLR
CO2
2
1
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OTHER DIFFICULTIES

• Ocean Circulation
• Viscosity
• Numeric
• Etc., etc., etc.
• Cant Forecast

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2004 Harper-Collins Publishers (603 p)
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THC - Strong
?
COOLING
?
COOLING
WARMING
WARMING
COOLING
1860 1900
1940 1980
2020
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PREDICTION
Minor Global Warming (0.3oC) will occur over the
next century
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We must stop GLOBAL WARMING!
LANDFALLINGHURRICANES
MACK
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IMPROVED INTENSITY PREDICTION
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WHERE ARE THOSE HURRICANES? WHATS ALL THE FUSS!!