Houston' ' ' '

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Houston. . . .
Dr. Arthur C. Nelson, ASCE, FAICP Professor
Director Urban Affairs Planning Virginia Tech
Alexandria Center May 19, 2004
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. . . . We Have an Opportunity
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Economic Benefits of Managed Growth But
first a look into the future
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Perspective ? Next 30 Years
90 million new people. 40 million homes
supporting new residents. 20 million replaced
homes 60 million total new homes 60 million
new jobs. 50 billion square feet supporting
new jobs. 40 billion replaced square feet. 90
billion total nonresidential square feet.
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The BIG Picture Nationally
220 billion square feet to be built 55 of
development seen in 2035 built between now and
then. About 70 of everything seen
today. 22 Trillion in construction. 3
Trillion in total infrastructure. 25 Trillion
total investment
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The Story in Houston/Harris Co
3,000,000 new people 1,300,000 million homes
for new residents. 300,000 replaced homes
1,600,000 total new homes 2,000,000 new jobs.
1.1 billion square feet supporting new jobs.
0.7 billion replaced square feet. 1.8 billion
total nonresidential square feet.
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The BIG Picture in Houston
5 billion square feet to be built Up to 65 of
development seen in 2035 built between now and
then. More than 80 of everything seen
today. 500 Billion in construction. 100
Billion in total infrastructure. 600 Billion
total investment
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Where Does It Go?
Does it Matter?
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• Economic Benefits of Managed Growth
• Infrastructure Savings
• Economic Development Advantages
• The Density Connection
• Responding to Major Market Shifts

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• What IS Managed Growth?
• Preserving public goods
• Minimizing taxpayer exposure
• Maximizing economic exchange
• Elevating the quality of life
• Distributing benefits burdens equitably
• Above all, facilitating needs efficiently
• What ISNT Managed Growth?
• Growth controls
• Moratoriums or quotas
• Caving into NIMBYism

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Modest Management Recenter 25 New Development
Infrastructure Savings for Harris County Water
demand savings 14 MGD (11) Sewer demand
savings 12 MGD (12) Lane miles of roads saved
2,000 Up to 10 billion saved Savings gt 7,000
per residential unit Source Adapted from
Robert Burchell et al. Costs of Sprawl 2000. 30
year projections.
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Modest Management
Growth Management Economic Development Nelson
Peterman (J. Pl. Ed. Res.2000) Growth
management explains 10 of growth. Nelson et
al. (J. Am. Pl. Assoc. 2000) Urban containment
revitalizes central cities without robbing
suburban growth, exurban sprawl
curtailed Sanchez (J. Am. Pl. Assoc. 2000)
Higher percent transit coverage lowers
unemployment. Nelson Foster (J. Urb. Affairs.
2000) Regional governance increases personal
income.

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Density and Economic Growth Ciccone Hall (Am.
Ec. Rev. 1996) Doubling density increases labor
productivity 6. Cervero (Lincoln Inst. Land
Policy 2000) Increasing density increasing
transit network density increases labor
productivity wages. Nelson Moody (J. Urb.
Pl. Dev. 2000) Each beltway lowers retail
service trade 2 - 5. How do we get there
from here?
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Headlines In 2003, sales of attached owner
occupied homes exceeded sales of detached homes
for the first time. Also in 2003, prices of
attached homes exceeded prices of detached homes
for the first time. Is the market telling us
something?
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Traditional Households on the Wane
Household Type 1970 2000 2030 Family
Households 81 69 60 With
Children 40 26 20
Nonfamily Households 19 31 40 Living
Alone 17 26 30
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Market Analysts Finding Changing
Preferences National Association of
Realtors National Home Builders
Association Robert Charles Lesser Lend
Lease Joint Center for Housing Policy
Harvard/MIT Arcada Company Chris
Leinberger Friends, clients and golfing buddies
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What Are They? Apartment/rental demand
33 Low/Moderate income New to area or family
transition Young professionals and free
spirits Assisted living, empty
nester Owner-occupied demand 67 Hard
demand for townhouse density 35 Soft
demand for townhouse density
25 Traditional subdivision demand 40
Even in Tallahassee
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Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way Distribution
of demand 2005 to 2035 30 apartment. 20
townhouse (city and suburb). 20 small, cluster
lot, zero-lot line. 30 conventional large
lot. 70 urban-esque (10 units per acre) 30
conventional subdivisions.
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Market Response to Density and Configuration

• Home value appreciation food chain
• Conventional Mixed PUD/Mixed
  New Urban
• Subdivision Residential Land Uses
  Urbanism Neighborhood
• Snoopy Flats Radburn Woodlands
  Kentlands Arlington

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Manage Resources to Facilitate the Market Next
2,000,000 people want ? small lot, cluster,
townhouse, new urbanism A 70 shift, not a 25
shift Maybe save 20 MGD water and
wastewater Maybe not build 5,000 lane miles of
roads Maybe save 20-30 billion Will need new
kinds of investments Retail/service transactions
become more efficient. More economic stability,
higher incomes, fewer jobless. Distribute
economic opportunity more equitably. Are you up
to it?
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Houston . . . . . . . .The future looks bright