1
The Perfect Demographic Storm

• College Board National Forum
• October, 2005
• Andre Bell
• Vice President
• College University Enrollment Services

2
Number of Public High School Graduates Peaks in
2009 and doesnt recover until 2018
Source WICHE/The College Board
3
Number of High School Graduates, 1994-2018
United States
Source WICHE/The College Board
4
Number of High School Graduates,
1994-2018Southern, Southwestern, Western
Regions
Source WICHE/The College Board
5
Number of High School Graduates, 1994-2018
Middle States, Midwestern New England Regions
Source WICHE/The College Board
6
Number of High School Graduates, 1994-2018 By
CB Regional Totals
Source WICHE/The College Board
7
National Tuition and FeeHistory and 10 Year
Growth Projection
8
Tuition Fees and Median IncomesAges 45 - 54
9
Tuition and Fees/ Median Income Ages 45 - 54
10
Pell GrantsTotal Pell Expenditures, Maximum
Pell Grant, and Average Pell Grant in Constant
(2003) Dollars, 1981-82 to 2003-04
11
State GrantsTotal Need-Based and Non-Need-Based
State Grant Aid in Constant (2003) Dollars, 1982
to 2002
12
Percent of Total Undergraduate State AidNot
Based on Need, 1982 to 2002
13
Historic HS Graduates and College Participation
Rates
14
Minority Enrollment by Type - 2002
15
Minority Group Enrollment by Institution Type
16
Distribution by Type and Control A
Disproportionate Picture
17
Data Sources

• Western Interstate Commission for Higher
  Education (WICHE) / The College Board
• Trends in Student Aid, The College Board 2004
• U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables P
  series for subgroups by age 2003
• Minorities in Higher Education Annual Status
  Report, American Council on Education 2003, data
  source US Census Bureau, Current Population
  Reports School enrollment and economic
  characteristics of students, 1980-2000
• U.S. Department of Education, National Center
  for Education Statistics (NECS)
• The Chronicle of Higher Education, Almanac Issues
  2005-6