Ren Winkin, Secretary general Fedil

1
The energy market Current situation and
perspectives beyond the economic crisis 

• René Winkin, Secretary general Fedil
• BCC Business lunch May, 8th 2009

2
The energy market Current situation and
perspectives beyond the economic crisis

• Introduction
• A few words about
• Fedil Business Federation Luxembourg (
  www.fedil.lu)
• Groupement Pétrolier Luxembourgeois (GPL)
  (www.petrol.lu),
• Fedil and GPL
• Key stakeholders in national energy policy
• Involved in EU energy policy, mainly through
  BUSINESSEUROPE, resp. EUROPIA
• Purpose of this presentation Tackling 3 themes
  from an energy producer and energy consumer
  perspective
• Crisis - Show visible and less visible
  implications for the energy market
• New context Show which economic and regulatory
  constraints begin to affect the energy market
• Perspectives Show interrelation between
  constraints with limits, risks and opportunities

3
The energy market Current situation and
perspectives beyond the economic crisis

• Crisis
• Interrelation Energy market ? Crisis
• Energy prices ? inflation ? intrest rates ?
  credit crunch
• Crisis ? decrease in demand ? short term reprieve
  for a very tense energy market
• From a consumer perspective
• Very rapid and substantial decrease of industrial
  production in some energy intensive sectors
• (Steel, aluminium, ...)
• Effects on maritime, air and road cargo transport
• (Some Luxembourg figures Jet fuel 2008/2007
  -20 Road Truck diesel Q1 2009/2008 -18)
• From an energy producer perspective
• Decreasing prices, sales and revenues,
  increasing stocks (oil)
• Delay of investment projects
• Impact on international trade balances

4
The energy market Current situation and
perspectives beyond the economic crisis

• New context
• Energy intensive growth potential in BRIC
  countries
• Increasing concentration of oil and gas reserves
  in OPEC countries and Russia
• Peak of easy oil and gas
• Liberalized but fragmented EU gas and power
  markets
• Carbon cap and trade
• New applications (new consumption patterns)
• Objectives remain the same
• Security of supply
• Sustainability (concentration on climate change)
• Competitiveness (economic performance)
• Perspectives can be drawn by analysing the
  interactions

5
The energy market Current situation and
perspectives beyond the economic crisis

6
The energy market Current situation and
perspectives beyond the economic crisis

• Luxembourg Whats at stake?
• Security
• Increase and diversify interconnections for
  electricity, gas,...and oil
• Oil storage (infrastructure for operational and
  legal framework for compulsory strategic storage)
• Emergency plans
• Sustainability
• Meeting the GHG emission targets -28/1990 in
  2008-2012 and -20 or -30/2005 in 2013-2020 in
  the most flexible and efficient way possible,
  taking particular circumstances into
  consideration.
• Meeting the11 renewables target by using cost
  efficient national potential and certificates
• Biofuels
• Competitivenes
• Potential for ENOVOS access to production sources
  (cost )
• How to affect additionnal carbon and RES costs?
• The need to maintain competitive indirect taxes