Challenges Facing the Future of TV Audience Measurement

1
Challenges Facing the Future of TV Audience
Measurement

• South African Advertising Research Foundation
• 5th One-Day Media Research Symposium

Sandton, South Africa October 6, 2004
Bob Luff Global CTO Media Measurement
Information
2
Measurement fundamentals

• Fundamental to TV ratings is measurement of
• What program is being viewed
• Who is in the audience
• A number of factors are evolving that are
  stressing or changing the measurement of these
  basic elements

3
Measurement fundamentals

• Whats changing?
• Why?
• Measurement technology response

4
Whats changing?

• Pressure on measurement systems developing at
  each stage of the TV end-to-end system

Transmission Technology
Reception Technology
Viewing Time
Viewing Location
Source
One Program Analog TV
Channel Tuning Real-time Few fixed locations
VOD/ Virtual Digital
Multiplexed Time Location Free
Channels Transmission
Channels Shifted Anywhere in home
Time-shifted Compressed Many
new Location Free
Virtual channels Multiplexed
Digital Devices Anywhere in World
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TV measurement challenges

• Pressure on measurement systems developing at
  each stage of the TV end-to-end system

Transmission Technology
Reception Technology
Viewing Time
Viewing Location
Source
One Program Analog TV
Channel Tuning Real-time Few fixed locations
VOD/ Virtual Digital
Multiplexed Time Location Free
Channels Transmission
Channels Shifted Anywhere in home
Time-shifted Compressed Many
new Location Free
Virtual channels Multiplexed
Digital Devices Anywhere in World
6
TV measurement challenges

• Pressure on measurement systems developing at
  each stage of the TV end-to-end system

Transmission Technology
Reception Technology
Viewing Time
Viewing Location
Source
One Program Analog TV
Channel Tuning Real-time Few fixed locations
VOD/ Virtual Digital
Multiplexed Time Location Free
Channels Transmission
Channels Shifted Anywhere in home
Time-shifted Compressed Many
new Location Free
Virtual channels Multiplexed
Digital Devices Anywhere in World
7
TV measurement challenges

• Pressure on measurement systems developing at
  each stage of the TV end-to-end system

Transmission Technology
Reception Technology
Viewing Time
Viewing Location
Source
One Program Analog TV
Channel Tuning Real-time Few fixed locations
VOD/ Virtual Digital
Multiplexed Time Location Free
Channels Transmission
Channels Shifted Anywhere in home
Time-shifted Compressed Many
new Location Free
Virtual channels Multiplexed
Digital Devices Anywhere in World
8
TV measurement challenges

• Pressure on measurement systems developing at
  each stage of the TV end-to-end system

Transmission Technology
Reception Technology
Viewing Time
Viewing Location
Source
One Program Analog TV
Channel Tuning Real-time Few fixed locations
VOD/ Virtual Digital
Multiplexed Time Location Free
Channels Transmission
Channels Shifted Anywhere in home
Time-shifted Compressed Many
new Location Free
Virtual channels Multiplexed
Digital Devices Anywhere in World
9
TV measurement challenges

• Pressure on measurement systems developing at
  each stage of the TV end-to-end system

Transmission Technology
Reception Technology
Viewing Time
Viewing Location
Source
One Program Analog TV
Channel Tuning Real-time Few fixed locations
VOD/ Virtual Digital
Multiplexed Time Location Free
A/P
Channels Transmission
Channels Shifted Anywhere in home
Time-shifted Compressed Many
new Location Free
Software Metering
Virtual channels Multiplexed
Digital Devices Anywhere in World
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Why?Whats driving all the change?
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• A look back into our rear view mirror

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40 of last 50 years

• Over regulated
• Little Sector competition
• No core technology evolution1

• Stable metering systems lasting 25 years
• TV Receivers cant evolve
• Metering technology atrophy

1 NTSC PAL TV standards established late 40s
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Whats causing change now?
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Short answer

• Technology rapid transference technology
• Competition Competitors using technology as
  strategic weapons quest for expanded revenues
• Mostly between Cable and Satellite providers (HD
  TiVO)
• New stakeholders
• Wireline telecoms
• Cellular companies
• Consumer electronic manufacturers
• John Q. Public taking control!
• Empowered to exercise control by technology

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Digital is key driver of TV change

• Digital is a killer displacement technology
• So much better than previous technology- rapidly
  kills off/ displaces the old technology
• Higher quality lower cost more thru-put future
  resilient
• CE devices can be better, more functions/value,
  lower cost, smaller
• Can have continuing significant impact to TV
  measurement systems
• Rapid transference of digital/PC technology to TV
• 30 years head start Low cost High reliability
  Direct plug-in to DTV space
• Low technology risk to TV industry
• Digital change Government mandated
• Easy transfer of well established PC/ digital
  technology
• Such dramatic shifts create opportunities/
  imperatives
• First mover advantage slower perish

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Low beam headlightsmeasurement issues already in
view

• Analog-to-Digital conversion
• HDTV
• Advanced consumer electronic devices
• Time-shifted viewing
• Out-of-home viewing measurement
• More fragmentation of audience

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Its not HDTV that is a challenge
DTV 3 Standard Def Channels 07-01, 07-02, 07-03
Analog Channel 2
HDTV still one program per channel
Short Wave Radio
FM Radio

6 MHz
6 MHz
6 MHz
Program multiplexing (MUX) makes channel centric
measurement systems obsolete
DTV High Definition Channel 06-01
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Its multiplexing of programs
DTV 3 Standard Def Channels 07-01, 07-02, 07-03
Cant tell which program is watched from just
channel information
Analog Channel 2
Short Wave Radio
FM Radio

6 MHz
6 MHz
6 MHz
Program multiplexing (MUX) makes channel centric
measurement systems obsolete
DTV High Definition Channel 06-01
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Digital is crushing concept of channel

• Concept of channel disappearing to viewer and
  measurement systems
• Channel is no longer deterministic of program-
  DTV multiplexing
• Surfing or guide Go To key after program
  name/description
• Channel viewer confusion
• NBC 4 simulcast on DTV 53, carried on Cable 93
• Time-shift devices eliminate original channel
  references
• Replaced by program name listings

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Digital transference

• Massive LSIs (Large Scale Integrated Circuits)
  from computer industry
• Device-on-a-chip
• No measurement access points
• Integrated functions (DVD VCR) Settop device
  time-shift
• Time-shiefed viewing hard drive
• Other examples
• Streaming media into home via internet
• Video-over-IP
• Wireless home media networks
• Cellular phone TV

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Implications

• Confidence for single technology measurement
  systems lasting 10 years is low
• 20 years impossible!
• Forward optimized measurement systems
• Not backward/ current environment freeze frame
  centric
• Imperative for flexibility/ upgradeable TV
  measurement systems- measurement systems with
  legs
• Modular
• Downloadable, software centric
• Multi-functional multi-engine

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Implications

• Stakeholders research organizations must look
  further ahead
• Considerable risk for not being prepared
• Last to know- First to go
• Stay in front of technology curve
• Use it yourself, watch early adopters carefully
• Faster RD development cycle time
• No perfect crystal ball - parallel RD efforts-
  60B currency
• Faster field trial cycle time/ industry approval

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And, theyre off...

• Global digital TV conversion just starting
• Stakes for CE manufacturers high
• DTV/ HDTV 5 of sales volume but 85 of profit
• Current analog devices non-sustainable low
  margins
• Develop new digital devices/features or perish
• World is their oyster-- multi-standard chips
  allow one device to be designed/ manufactured and
  sold into every country
• First movers have lucrative de facto industry
  standard royalties
• Limited only by consumer adoption rate/ budget

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High beam view

• An early peek at few selected future technologies
• Smart TVs
• Location free TVs
• Mailable meters
• Lower measurement hardware cost
• Outdoor
• Smart phones as meters
• Cell phones with TV capability

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Smart TVs

• TVs have been dutiful dumb media display
  devices
• Smart TVs have
• Computer-like microprocessor memory
• Independent high-speed wired or wireless inputs
• Unique features
• Can download and store their own alternative ads/
  short media
• User option to select their ads/media during
  commercials
• Pop-ups, crawls, shrink-backs
• Time-shifted viewing

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Location Free TVs

• Not rabbit ears TVs location free viewing of
  all home cable, satellite, internet,
  time-shifted media
• Location free anywhere around house/yardor any
  high speed wired or wireless location Globally
• Location free 802.11 Wireless TVs already being
  sold
• 3 hour rechargeable battery remote control
• Developing two methods to meter location free TV
  use

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Mailable Meter

• Small, battery powered, mailable
• meter
• Collects A/P Signatures with built-in microphone
• Data stored in digital memory on device
• Rechargeable battery powers unit for a week
• When returned USB interface retrieves data and
  recharges the meter

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A/P PC

• Leverage Commercial PC technology/ HW
• Lower cost, more flexibility
• Software solutions
• Long term flexible metering solution!
• 100 compatible with A/P

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Smart phone meter

• Software Meter on a cell phone/PDA to measure
• Media Exposure (A/P audio based technology)
• Location Exposure
• Surveys
• Single source measurement possibilities
• Portable or Setmeter capability
• It is a Phone! or, not!

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Outdoor media measurement

• Npod
• Tracks respondent using GPS satellite technology
• Initial development done in Johannesburg, S.A.
• First USA deployment in process - Chicago

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Cell phone with TV capability

• Sprints new MobiTV service
• 15 Cable TV channels
• 10/ month unlimited viewing
• CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, Arts Entertainment, FOX
  Sports, Discovery, Music TV channel, weather,
• Excellent audio (especially w/ earphones)
• Video _at_ 3 frames/sec (normal TV 30 frames/sec)
• Video quality will improve as data speed improves
• Moores Law at work
• Developed the technology to measure viewing

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When will these developments start to have an
impact on TV measurement?
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It started about ten years ago!
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It has already built up considerable momentum
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It is heading in your direction!
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• Enjoy the ride into the future

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• Better have your high beams on

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Thank-you
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