Targets in Swedish Tree Improvement of Scots pine and Norway spruce

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Targets in Swedish Tree Improvement of Scots pine
and Norway spruce

• Dag Lindgren
• at
• Adaptive Traits Needed for Breeding Zones
  Delineation
• Madrid, February 25-26, 2008

http//www-genfys.slu.se/staff/dagl/TREEBREEDEX/Ma
dridMeeting.htm
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Zones seldom static

• I suggest lineation among zones should seldom be
  regarded as fixed, but change over the time and
  for the purpose. Adaptation is to a point and a
  moment, not over a permanent area.
• There are seldom sharp borders.
• In Sweden temperature and latitude most
  important.
• Large edafic differences is more choice of
  species than tree breeding.
• A most important adaptation is to global warming,
  I come to that
• Ill show a few Swedish zones.

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Tree Breeding

• Swedish long term tree breeding is structured in
  subpopulations, each with 50 tested founders.
• The populations are targeted based on heat sum
  and light climate (altitude and latitude).
• Figures show the targets of 24 pine (left) and 22
  spruce (right) subpopulations

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Current Swedish seed orchard target areas for new
seed orchards, (15 per species)
Spruce
Pine
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Seed orchard targets for producing seed orchards
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One target for planning and establishmentLater,
when crop is available, a recommendationActual
use may still be something else, but little exact
statistics
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A second round seed orchard may now look like this
Västerhus seed orchard
Photo Dag Lindgren
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Recommended area for using the seed orchard Västerhus (T10) Latitude for plus tree origin 6330' Category Tested Location Latitude 63,8 N Elevation 15 m Established 1991
     
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Global warming

• We have a global warming how shold tree
  breeders react?

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Swedish breeding does prepare for an uncertain
future in a general way!!!!

• The breeding population targets are somewhat
  wider spaced than corresponds to forest area or
  plant use, thus breeding effort goes towards sea
  level and timber limit to prepare for an
  uncertain future!
• Forest trees are plastic by Nature and likely to
  be able to stand some change
• As materials are tested over a range of
  environments they will be more plastic and stable
  than Evolution made them. Evolution knows only
  now and here.. This is an advantage tree
  breeders have over evolution! Sweden aims for a
  still larger spreading of the breeding materials
  in testing from now than 2006.

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Temperature is rising in the World and Sweden
World
Sweden
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I became convinced 2007

• Since the UN report early 2007 I consider it a
  fact. It will be warmer, and the temperature will
  not cool down to pre-2006 within a century!
• We must react in some way not just be prepared
  for an unspecifiec change, but react to the fact
  it will be warmer!

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What temperature change?

• Target near the time future plantations 2015
  (The years following plantation are most
  critical).
• Avoid too large change
• Few scenarios predict less than 2 degrees rise in
  a century
• Standard temperature is for 1961-1990
• Our experience on transfers mainly based on
  before 1990 events.
• Thus a change from sometime slightly before 1990
  to sometime slightly after 2015, could be half a
  degree.
• Make it simple!

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How to mimic temperature change?

• Just reduce the elevation!
• Temperature in Swedish vegetation period rises
  somewhat more than one degree when elevation is
  reduced 100 m!
• Thus, reduce elevation 50 m!

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Dags recipe tree breeding response to global
warming

• Use materials as the plantation site had 50 m
  lower elevation.
• Long term breeding could act accordingly. Target
  and test plantations for Swedish breeding
  populations 50 m higher up.

http//www-genfys.slu.se/staff/dagl/TREEBREEDEX/Ma
dridMeeting.htm