Non Conscious Processes preceding Intuitive decisions

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Non Conscious Processes preceding Intuitive
decisions

• Dick J. Bierman
• University of Amsterdam
• Utrecht University

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Intuition in this talk

• The ability to make a profitable decision without
  full rational analysis sometimes associated with
  a gut-feeling.
• Often if problems are underspecified or under
  time pressure.

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Why Intuition?

• In the management literature it is claimed that
  intuition is an important individual property.
• Example The role of intuition in strategic
  decision making ( Human Relations, 53 (1) 57-86)
• Conclusion .Use of intuitive synthesis was
  found to be positively associated with
  organizational performance in unstable
  environment, but negatively in stable environment

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Assessment

• Is there a valid assessment instrument?
• Questionaires are too obvious
• Needed a covert instrument based upon a model of
  intuition

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Intuition in Science

• Behaviorism
• Decision without reason
• Cognitive Science
• de Groot The thinking of the Chess Player
• Simon Chunking (Anderson)
• Cognitive Neuro Science
• Damasios somatic marker -gt model

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Decision making
Rational (left h) analysis
Decision
Problem
Outcome
Serial conscious
Emotion
Parallel non conscious
SOMATIC MARKING!!!
No
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Somatic Marking
Decision
Problem
Emotion
Association of bodily response with problem and
decision
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Intuition
Decision
LIMITEDRational analysis
Problem
Serial conscious
Parallel non conscious
Biasing of decision space by SM
Association of bodily response with problem and
decision
YES!
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Damasios Somatic Marker model
Previous problem
Current similar problem
Previous decision (selection of alternative)
NC Reduction of Alternatives
Good or Bad outcome
Somatic Marking Of Decision (nc emotion)
Current decision
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The 3 factors of Intuition

• Implicit Learning (from previous experiences)
• Development of Somatic marker
• Listening to Somatic marker (giving rise to
  advantageous decisions)

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Qualitative research Chess Player

• Automatic selection of a reduced set of
  alternatives
• Feels bad/good argument

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Lab research

• Damasio Gambling task. Choosing the good deck.
• Somatic marker Skin Conductance

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Damasio gambling procedure

• Participant gets initially 2000
• Draws cards from one of 4 different decks
• Two decks are good and 2 decks are bad
• Card is either winning or losing

Preparation
Skin Conductance
time
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Results Damasios Gambling experiment

• Increase of SM preceding incorrect decisions
  before knowledge is explicit.
• The body (GUT) knows what your cognition
  doesnt know yet.
• Not for subjects with prefrontal cortex damage

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Less attractive aspects of Gambling Task

• Implicit learning is too simple
• Factor of Listening to Somatic Marker cannot be
  measured through slow Skin Conductance
• So
• New task Artificial Grammar task
• New dep. Variable Pupil Dilation

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Movie
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Results skin conductance
decision
feedback
Confirm Damasios findings
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Results pupil dilation
(t(24) 1.87 plt 0.04 one tailed Preconceptual
phase only!
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Results maximum pupil size
(t(24) 3.02 plt 0.005) Preconceptual phase only.
SM drives the decision
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Top manager Nina Brink

• World On Line (brings shares to the market)
• Why did Nina Brink sell all her shares before day
  1? Foreknowledge?
• She did it again later, gues when?

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Is intuition also driven by the actual future
outcome
Somatic Marker
Current decision
Future outcome
Physiological Response
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Retrocausal?
Decision
LIMITEDRational (left h) analysis
Problem
Outcome
Terug in de tijd?
YES!
Biasing of decision space by SM
Association of bodily response with problem and
decision
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Testing Pre-sentiment

• ....Artificial divination makes predictions by
  argument, concluding upon signs and tokens
  Natural divination forms a presage from an
  inward presentiment of the mind, without the help
  of signs.... From Francis Bacon, On the dignity
  and the advancement of learning", book IV Chap
  III
• Anticipation of a random event
• Two potential outcomes
• One good, one bad
• Eg. Presentation of random positive and negative
  pictures but also presentation of random winning
  and loosing cards!

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CARD!-analysis Damasios Gambling experiment

• t 1.634 df117 p 0.053
• Presentiment effect 20!!!!

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Hamms Animal fear study
Skin Conductance
time
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Hamms publication
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Results re-analysis Hamms data
stimulus
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Erotic Presentiment effect at time -4
seconds. Td 2.89 df 39 p lt 0.01
Bierman Scholte, 2002
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Unified Intuition paradigm(include Presentiment)

• Manipulate the future randomly
• Is possible by having two reinforcements eg -10
  euro and -100 euro randomly selected.
• Manipulation is not as strong as
  neutral-emotional pictures

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Comparing -10 -100in BIAL experiment
feedback
Decision made
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Current plans

• Intuition assessment instrument (4 factors)
• Implicit learning
• Somatic marker
• Listening to SM
• Pre-sentiment
• Intuition training
• bio feedback of Somatic Marker

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Related to intuition

• Instinct
• Non conscious information is genetic
• Creativity
• Emotional biasing of search space is driven by
  aesthetics