Nuclear Power in the European Union

1
Nuclear Power in the European Union

• Post-Oil Europe
• Conference on European energy policy options
• Antony Froggatt
• a.froggatt_at_btinternet.com
• Tallinn, 27th October 2006

2
Summary of Presentation

• Historical Development
• Aging of Nuclear Reactor
• Generation III reactors
• Renewed Interest in Energy
• Views on New Investment
• Nuclears Dream Support Programme
• Conclusion

3
Global Reactors and Installed Capacity

• Source Mycle Schneider

4
Reactors Under Construction (2006)
5
Global Current Status

• Not Global Industry
• Of the 130-180GW of new capacity each year,
  1.5-2.5 is nuclear
• 22 of last 31 reactors completed were in Asia

6
EU Nuclear - Development

• UK first country to develop commercial nuclear
  electricity, in 1957
• 147 reactors in operation in EU. Largest nuclear
  union in the world, 8 more than US, three
  times more than Japan and seven times more than
  Russia.
• 4 countries in world produce 50 or more of
  electricity from nuclear, all in EU

7
History of New Reactor Completions in the
European Union
8
Status of Nuclear Power in Europe
9
Reactors to Be Closed
Reactor Size Date Reactor Size Date
Bulgaria Slovakia
Kozloduy 3 440 2006 Bohunice V-1 440 2006
Kozloduy 4 440 2006 Bohunice V-1 440 2008
Germany UK
Biblis A 1125 2007 Dungeness A-1 225 2006
Neckarwestheim 1 785 2008 Dungeness A-2 225 2006
Biblis B 1300 2009 Sizewell A-1 250 2006
Brunsbuettel 806 2009 Sizewell A-2 250 2006
Lithuania Oldbury A 225 2008
Ignalina-2 1200 2009 Oldbury A 225 2008
Wylfa A 570 2010
Wylfa B 570 2010
10
Operating Reactors in Europe
11
Reactor Designs

• 50 years of commercial electricity generation.
• As with all other technologies considerable
  changes have occurred in the design, size and use
  of the nuclear power plants.
• Reactor designs have been grouped into various
  generations I, II, III, IV

12
Age of Global Nuclear Fleet
13
Reactor Ageing

• Materials and components are affected by
  temperature, pressure, neutrons, ph, mechanical
  pressures.
• These external forces can impact upon the ability
  of components to function as designed.
• Ageing processes are difficult to detect because
  they usually occur on microscopic level.
• Inspection of materials most affected by external
  pressures often difficult.
• Ageing of some components is expected and leads
  to routine replacement steam generators
  others not.

14
Davis Besse

• Cracking thought to begin 1990
• Not detected in numerous inspections
• 2001 US NRC ordered inspections in all Vessel
  Heads
• Discovered by accident March 2002
• Whole vessel head corroded, only inner lining
  stopped splitting

15
Typical bathtub-curve of typical failure rates at
a Nuclear Power Plant
16
Implications of Ageing

• Growing problem as reactors get older
• Conflict with utilities desires for plant life
  extension/increase output
• Liberalised market means desire to cut costs to
  increase profitability lead to reduced
  maintenance.

17
New Threat - Terrorism

• Nuclear facilities have been targeted South
  Africa, Spain
• Post 2001, new fears that nuclear facilities
  become terrorist target.
• January 2002 President Bush said that U.S. forces
  found diagrams of American nuclear power plants
  in al-Qaeda materials in Afghanistan.
• Other recent examples of apparent threats
  Australia, Russia, UK

18
Technical Issues

• Containments not built to withstand large
  aircraft crash.
• Possible implement barriers no fly zones,
  anti-aircraft guns.
• Other areas of fuel cycle also, even more,
  vulnerable, e.g. spent fuel stores

19
Generation III

• Evolutionary design, largely modification of
  operational reactors,
• Some are operational ABWRs in Japan.
• Others under-construction, EPR (Finland),
• Others proposed
• AP1000 (Westinghouse)
• Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (ESKOM)
• APWR (S Korea)

20
European Pressurized Water Reactor

• No reactor in operation, but problems already
  visible with construction.
• Finish Safety Agency Report, released in 2006
  highlighted a number of problems, including.
• The tight cost frame is also a problem in
  selecting and supervising subcontractors. They
  have very often chosen a sub-contractor who has
  given the lowest tender
• organizations participating in the Olkiluto-3
  project have not achieved a shared view of the
  emphasis on safety awareness in the construction
  phase.
• the time and amount of work needed for the
  detailed design of the unit was clearly
  under-estimated when the overall schedule was
  agreed on.
• quality control problems in with the reactor
  base slab

21
AP 1000

• Not even under construction, but concerns have
  been raised, in particular in relation to safety
  vs economics.
• AP 1000 is an expanded version of the AP600,
  which was licensed but never built.
• It was expanded to improve the economics, as it
  has nearly doubled the output, with only marginal
  increase in construction costs.
• UCS claim that this has resulted in, AP-1000 has
  a ratio of containment volume to thermal power
  below that of most of current PWRs, increasing
  the risk of containment overpressure and failure
  in a severe accident

22
New Interest in Energy Policy

• Security of supply concerns
• Growing awareness and concern over climate change
  and environmental considerations
• Need for significant new investment

23
Security of Supply
24
IEA Global Business As Usual Energy Demand
Forecast (MToe)
25
Global Nuclear Programme

• Nuclear power uses uranium, which is limited.
• Current resources estimates suggest that uranium
  will be depleted, at current use levels, quicker
  than the other major fuels.
• A rapid increase in the use of nuclear will
  accelerate the depletion rate of uranium
• Decreasing uranium reserves lead to plutonium
  economy - Generation IV reactors.

Thousand Exajoules Consum-ption in 1998 Reserves Reserves-last (yrs) Resources Resource last (yrs)
Oil 0.14 11.11 80 21.31 152
Gas 0.08 14.88 186 34.93 436
Coal 0.09 20.67 229 179.00 1988
Uranium 0.04 1.89 47 3.52 88
26
Climate Change
27
Socolow Climate - Wedges
28
Investment Needs ( billion in 2000 dollars)
2000 2001-10 2011- 2020 2021- 2030 Total
Oil 87 916 1045 1136 3096 19
Gas 80 948 1041 1157 3145 19
Coal 11 125 129 144 398 2
Electricity 235 2562 3396 3883 9841 60
Total 413 4551 5610 6320 16481 100
Annual Average 413 455 561 632 549 100
29
Views on New Investment and Nuclear Power

• Key actors have differing views, these are
• Nuclear Vendors
• Financial Community

30
Nuclear Industry

• Currently, very active in promoting their
  products and claim that
• GE 66 GW of new capacity to be ordered by 2015
• Areva 150-250 GW by 2030
• Westinghouse 20 GW in India 1 GW each year.
• NNC (China) 30 GW by 2020
• World Nuclear Association
• nuclear power in the 21st Century will be
  economically competitive even without attaching
  economic weight to the global environmental
  virtues of nuclear power or to national
  advantages in price stability and security of
  energy supply

31
Financial Community

• Standard and Poors
• If new construction of nuclear power is to
  become a reality in the U.K., Standard Poor's
  has significant concerns over the future
  structure of the generating industry. In
  particular, the potential for increased
  regulation of the liberalized generating
  industry, a higher level of political
  interference in the market structure, and the
  ongoing prospects for nuclear power in a
  competitive power market. Standard Poor's
  expects that investment in nuclear power will
  rely on the long-term sustainability of high
  electricity prices in the U.K. energy market
• Developing new nuclear generation in the
  deregulated European market environment is a
  high-risk venture, given the long construction
  times and high capital costs. Siting issues are
  likely to be more sensitive today than in the
  1970s and 1980s when most reactors were built.
  Furthermore, political support will remain
  fragile to nuclear safety performance worldwide.
  Another Chernobyl-like accident can rapidly cool
  the current cordial sentiments. Fundamental
  issues, such as the final storage of nuclear
  waste and far-reaching social consensus, are
  still likely to be required before a potential
  large-scale renaissance can happen

32

• UBS
• a potentially courageous 60-year bet on fuel
  prices, discount rates and promised efficiency
  gains
• HSBC
• Hence this financial risk new build coupled
  with unforeseen construction delays, the risk of
  cumbersome political and regulatory oversight,
  nuclear waste concerns and public opposition
  could make new nuclear a difficult pill to
  swallow for equity investors.

33
The US Nuclear Support Programme

• In the US the 2005 energy Act allocated around
  12 billion for nuclear new build, through,
  production tax credits, loan guarantees, research
  and development, decommissioning support and
  framework against regulatory delays. the
  nuclear industry dream package.

34
Targeting of Public Funds

• Analysis undertaken by Amory Lovins suggests
• Every 0.10 spent on a new nuclear kWh could have
  resulted in
• 1.2-1.7kWh of Windpower
• 0.9-1.7 kWh of gas fired
• 2.2-6.5 kWh of co-generation
• Several to 10kWh of energy efficiency.
• There is an opportunity cost of different support
  schemes.

35
Prospects

• 148 reactors operating in 13 EU Member States
• Installed capacity is 130.5 GW
• Average age of reactors is 22 years.
• Assuming operating life of 50 years just to
  maintain current level of nuclear in EU, there
  would need to be 3 new EPRs connected to the grid
  every year.
• At best 2 will connected in next 10 years

36
Conclusion

• Nuclear Power has numerically started to decline.
• New Government interest in energy policy, for
  security of supply and environmental reasons
• Unprecedented level of investment needed in
  coming decades, especially in power sector
• How much new nuclear will depend on the
  subsidy/support schemes introduced
• These schemes will divert funding/attention away
  from real solutions, energy efficiency and
  renewables