Today

1
Todays lecture

• Waves
• Can political regimes be imposed by force of
  arms?
• A typology of external influences
• Globalization, soft power, and democracy
• A few questions for section

2
Encore Trend in Polity IV scores
3
The Falklands combatants
4
U.S. military occupations, 20th century

• Austria
• Cuba
• Dominican Republic
• Germany
• Haiti
• South Korea
• Japan

• Micronesia
• Nicaragua
• Palau (island)
• Panama
• Philippines
• South Vietnam

5
Levitsky and Way revised

• L W
• Leverage
• Linkage

• Revised
• Pressure
• Armed force
• Purposive inreach by West
• Purposive outreach by local democrats
• Existential involvement

6
Components of Kearney/Foreign Policy
globalization index

• Economic integration
• Trade, FDI, portfolio capital flows, investment
  income
• Personal contacts
• Travel tourism, telephone traffic, remittances
  transfers
• Technological connectivity
• Internet users, hosts, secure servers
• Political engagement
• Memberships in international organizations,
  contributions to UN peacekeeping, ratification of
  selected treaties, governmental transfer payments

7
Most globalized countries, 2004

• Singapore
• Switzerland
• United States
• Ireland
• Denmark
• Canada
• Netherlands
• Australia
• Austria
• Sweden

8
Least globalized countries, 2004

• Iran
• India
• Indonesia
• Venezuela
• Bangladesh
• Turkey
• Pakistan
• Egypt
• Colombia
• Kenya

9
Most globalized Polity scores

• Singapore
• Switzerland
• United States
• Ireland
• Denmark
• Canada
• Netherlands
• Australia
• Austria
• Sweden

• -2
• 10
• 10
• 10
• 10
• 10
• 10
• 10
• 10
• 10

10
Least globalized Polity scores

• Iran
• India
• Indonesia
• Venezuela
• Bangladesh
• Turkey
• Pakistan
• Egypt
• Colombia
• Kenya

• -6
• 9
• 8
• 6
• 6
• 7
• -5
• -6
• 7
• 8

11
Globalization and Polity scores, 2004
12
Some outliers
13
Effects on Polity scores of components of
globalization, 2004
Component Effect of 10-point shift in index Effect of 50-point shift in index
Economic integration N.S. N.S.
Personal contacts -0.8 -4.0
Technological connectivity 1.9 9.5
Political engagement 1.1 5.4
14
Some questions for sections

• How important is the international factor,
  relative to other drivers of regime change?
• Purposive vs. existential influence
• Are there natural limits to internationally-led
  democratization? What about China, Russia, Iran,
  Pakistan?
• Any lessons from Iraq war? From Hugo Chavez
  (Venezuela)?
• Democratization or U.S./Western domination?