ICT Development Strategy

1
ICT Development Strategy

• Is ICT Engine of Growth?
• Motoo Kusakabe,
• Senior Counsellor to the President
• EBRD

2
What countries grew most rapidly?

• 11 years to 2001
• China 8.7
• Ireland 6.3
• Vietnam 5.7
• Korea, Rep 4.9
• Lebanon 4.8
• Chile 4.6
• Guyana 4.1
• Luxembourg 4.1
• Mauritius 4.0
• Singapore 4.0

• 21 YEARS TO 2001
• China 8.2
• Korea 6.1
• Ireland 4.8
• Botswana 4.8
• St. Kitts Navls4.6
• Thailand 4.6
• Mauritius 4.5
• Singapore 4.4
• Bhutan 4.2
• Cyprus 4.2

3
High Income Countries

• Luxemburg
• U.S.
• Ireland
• Iceland
• Norway
• Denmark
• Switzerland
• Netherlands
• Canada

• Austria
• Belgium
• Germany
• Japan
• Hong Kong
• Italy
• Finland
• Sweden
• U.K.
• France

4
How to find the factors which explain Growth and
Income level?

• Calculate correlation coefficients of 168
  countries between an indicator
• DGP per capita growth for last 11 years or
• GDP per capita of 2001
• Correlation is the measure of statistical
  association and not of causal relationship

5
Is ICT Usage Engine of Growth?

• Factors
• Internet Users
• PC
• Internet Server

• Growth
• 26
• 23
• 20

• Income
• 83
• 92
• 59

• ICT Usage indicators do not explain higher growth
• But they have strong correlation with high income
• ICT usage alone cannot ignite the high growth
• ICT needs collaboration with other factors

6
Is education engine of growth?

• Factors
• Expenditure per Student, Tertiary
• School Enrollment, Tertiary
• School Enrollment, Secondary
• School Enrollment, Primary Female
• School Completion, Primary
• Pupil-Teacher Ratio
• Repetition Rate
• PC Installed in Education

• Growth
• 6
• 10
• 13
• 28
• 25
• -7
• -3
• -4

• Income
• 90
• 71
• 70
• 48
• 60
• -59
• -37
• 45

7
Is innovation engine of growth?

• Growth
• 7
• 27
• 3
• -40

• Income
• 74
• 97
• 70
• 3

• Factors
• RD Expenditure
• Scientific Journal Articles
• Scientists/Engineers
• Patent Applications by residents

8
Is infrastructure engine of growth?

• Factors
• Road Paved
• Electric Power Consumption
• Electric Power Losses
• Telephone Mainlines
• Telephone Waiting Time

• Growth
• 3
• 4
• -22
• 25
• -43

• Income
• 56
• 33
• -26
• 92
• -53

9
Is trade engine of growth ?

• Income Level
• 18
• 45
• 35
• 17

• Factors
• Export Growth
• FDI (Gross inflow)
• Priv. Capital Flow
• Priv. Inv. telecoms

• Growth of DGP
• 62
• 20
• 6
• -6

10
What factors do explain the high export growth??

• IT Export performance

• 1. China 13.7 OO
• 2. Korea 12.5 OOO
• 3. Thailand 11.5 OO
• 4. Ireland 11.0 OOOO
• 5. Malaysia 10.8 OOO
• 6. Hong Kong 10.6 O
• 7. Bangladesh 10.0
• 8. Mexico 10.0 OO
• 9. India 9.1
• 10. Syria 8.8

11
Is finance engine of growth?

• Factors
• M2
• Domestic Credit to Private Sector
• Stock Traded

• Growth
• 39
• 41
• 21

• Income
• 53
• 73
• 55

12
Is governance engine of growth?

• Factors
• Voice Accountability
• Political Stability
• Government Effectiveness
• Regulatory Quality
• Rule of Law
• Control of Corruption

• Growth
• 27
• 38
• 47
• 48
• 40
• 40

• Income
• 68
• 69
• 87
• 72
• 87
• 89

13
What are the engines of growth?- summary

• Factors which have strong impact on growth
• Trade growth
• Primary education
• Financial markets
• Governance, particularly regulation quality
• Telecoms Infrastructure
• Factors which have less impact on growth
• Private capital flows
• Higher education
• ICT use
• Innovation
• Infrastructure

14
What factors are important to keep higher income
levels?

• ICT use
• Higher education, quality of education and
  Innovation
• Communications Infrastructure its management
• Financial Markets Governance
• Foreign Direct Investments, Private Capital flows

15
Lessons for next emerging countries

• Need for a comprehensive strategy to address the
  basic growth factors,
• such as trade, basic education, financial markets
  and governance
• Strategy should focus on
• Regulatory Reform to attract private investment
  in telecoms infrastructure
• Creating Regional ICT Clusters to create a good
  environment for entrepreneurs
• Creating jobs through ICT
• Education for innovation and entrepreneurship