WCRP Conference 1997 Research priorities for the next decade

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Observation, Prediction and Projection of
Climate Variability and Change
World Climate Research Programme
Peter Lemke Chair JSC/WCRP
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WCRP Overview

• Origin
• Stockholm Study Conference (1974)
• First World Climate Conference (1979)
• Sponsors
• World Meteorological Organisation (WMO,1980)
• International Council of Scientific Unions
  (ICSU,1980)
• Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
  (IOC/UNESCO,1992)
• Objectives
• To determine the predictability of climate
• To determine the effect of human activities on
  climate

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WCRP Projects
WGNE WGCM
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WCRP Domains
SPARC
GEWEX
TOGA
ACSYS
WOCE
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WCRP Domains
SPARC
GEWEX
CLIVAR
ACSYS
WOCE
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WCRP Domains
GEWEX CliC CLIVAR
SPARC
SPARC
GEWEX
CLIVAR
CliC
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The Oceans
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10-year record of sea surface topography from
satellite altimeters
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(No Transcript)
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Status of the Tropical Moored Buoy Network
TRITON
TAO
PIRATA
80 complete
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Ocean Reference Stations
19 complete
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0.2
Changes in the Water Masses of the
Atlantic Joyce, Zenk Hogg, 1996
0.0
-0.2
1920 1960 1990
Temperature Anomaly 500 to 2500 dbars Bermuda
Station S
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Warming of Weddell Sea Warm Deep Water
Warm Deep Water flowing into and out of the
Weddell Sea has warmed by about 0.3C since the
mid-1970s. (Robertson et al., 2002)
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Argo Implementation status
Schematic of operation
Expected coverage by 2004/5 (Needs 750 per year
to maintain)
GODAE Global Ocean Data Assimilation Exp. Ocean
Prediction
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Argo - Building on WOCE
Argo - building on WOCE
DATA collected June 29 2001 Available via the
GTS July 1
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The AtmosphereTemperatureTrends in Stratosphere
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SPARC
"Stratospheric temperature trends observations
and model simulations" (paper awarded the WMO
Norbert Gerbier-MUMM Award, 2003).
2s uncertainty
Mean vertical profile of annual decadal
temperature trend at 45oN.
1979-1994
Compiled using radiosonde, satellite and analysed
data sets
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Global Precipitation Climatology Project
20 year pattern of global precipitation
LAND
OCEAN
Three new GPCP products -- 20 year monthly
(2.5x2.5) -- 20 year Pentad (5 dy) (
shows MJO ) -- 1x1 degree daily since 97
TOTAL
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GPCP No evidence for a significant global trend
over last 20 years...
Curtis/Adler/Huffman 912
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GPCP No evidence for a significant global trend
over last 20 years...
Curtis/Adler/Huffman 912
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GPCP No evidence for a significant global trend
over last 20 years...
Curtis/Adler/Huffman 912
But regional trends exist
However, climate-change ensemble results show
flooding in 20th century within normal
variability (Milly 2002)
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Coordinated - EOP (CEOP)
Enhanced Observing Period - 2001-2004
Impacts all of GEWEX
gt Global data sets gt CSEs Process studies gt
Modelling gt Intra/Inter GEWEX/WCRP
To address the influence of continental
hydroclimate processes on the predictability of
global atmospheric circulation and changes in
water resources -- with particular focus on the
heat source and sink regions .
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New satellites and GEWEX/CLIVAR campaigns provide
opportunity for significant benefit from a more
Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP).
North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
Monsoon Experiment in South America (MESA)
(MDB)
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The First Global Integrated Data Sets of the
Water Cycle
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Sea Ice Summer and Winter Extent
NH
SH
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Record minimum Arctic Sea-ice Extent and Area in
2002 (Serreze et al., 2003)
Reductions in Arctic sea ice cover observed
during the passive microwave era (1978-present)
exemplified by the record ice loss in September
2002 are part of a larger pattern of Arctic
change including increases in surface air
temperature, permafrost degradation, increased
river discharge to the Arctic Ocean and changes
in ocean structure which may have feedbacks on
the global climate system
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ACSYS/CliC
Variations of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness
(Rothrock et al. ,1999)
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Largest area of melt over Greenland in 2002
(Steffen and Huff) Passive Microwave derived
maximum melt extent
2002 Melt Extent
1992 Melt Extent
Greenland ice sheet melt area increased on
average by 16 from 1979 to 2002. The smallest
melt extent was observed after the Mt. Pinatubo
eruption in 1992
Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, University of
Colorado at Boulder
University of Colorado
CliC mass balance CLIVAR stability of TH
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Modelling Seasonal Prediction (El Niño)
TOGA, WOCE, CLIVAR
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El Niño - 2002
Adapted from International Research Institute
NINO-3.4
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CLIVAR
WGSIP
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CLIMATE 1000 - 2100ADSourceIPCC 2001
Climate change assessment projections
WGCM ? IPCC
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Outstanding Future Questions (1)

• hydrological cycle (acceleration under warming?)
• modelling clouds, radiation, precipitation

• sea level rise due to glacier/ice sheet melt?
• abrupt climate change due to regime change in
  cryosphere?

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Outstanding Future Questions (2)

• mechanisms of natural climate variations
• predictions models observations present/past

• effects of atmosph. composition on climate
• anthropogenic impacts

• inclusion of biosphere in climate models
• effect of bio-geo-chemical cycles on climate

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Prerequisites

• earth system models (physics, bio-geo-chemistry)
  

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Climate-Chemistry-Ecosystems ? WGCM / GAIM
Online
CLIMATE
Offline
Direct and Indirect Effects
Greenhouse Effect
Human Emissions
AEROSOLS
GHGs
CH4, O3, N2O, CFC
Fires soot Mineral dust
Oxidants OH, H2O2 HO2,O3
CO2
Human Emissions
N deposition 03, UV radiation
CHEMISTRY
ECOSYSTEMS
Biogenic EmissionsCH4,DMS,VOCs Dry deposition
stomatal conductance
Land-use Change
Human Emissions
Source - P Cox
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Prerequisites

• earth system models (physics, bio-geo-chemistry)
  

• improved modelling infrastructure

• operational climate prediction centers

• operational climate observing systems

• integrated assessment for management,
• policy and development

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What is the WCRPs long-range vision?
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1980 Aims

• To determine to what extent climate can be
  predicted
• To determine the extent of mans influence on
  climate

Themes observation, quantification,
understanding, prediction

• Achievements
• Improvement of observing systems and climate
  models
• Improved basis for climate prediction

2003 New Strategy Overarching and integrating
activity Prediction of entire climate
system (? Earth system)
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Climate system Observational and Prediction
Exp.(2005-2015)


TF-SP

COPE
TF-2

TF-3
TF-SP (limited-term) Task Force on Seasonal
Prediction
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Health
www.ess-p.org