Title: FNCE 3020 FINANCIAL MARKETS AND INSTITUTIONS
1FNCE 3020FINANCIALMARKETS ANDINSTITUTIONS
- Lecture 2 Understanding Interest Rates
2Beginning Quotes
- A bank is a place that will lend you money if
you can prove that you dont need it.- Bob Hope - Achieving price stability is not only important
in itself, it is also central to attaining the
Federal Reserve's other mandate objectives of
maximum sustainable employment and moderate
long-term interest rates. - Ben Bernanke
3Discussion Slide Interest Rate
- What do you think of when you hear or read the
term interest rates?
4Interest Rate Defined
- Dual Definition
- Borrowing the cost of borrowing or the price
paid for the rental of funds. - From the standpoint of deficit entities.
- Saving the return from investing funds.
- From the standpoint of surplus entities.
- Both concepts are expressed as a percentage per
year (Percent per annum). - True regardless of maturity of instrument.
- Thus, all interest rate data is annualized.
- See http//www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/up
date/
5Commonly Used Interest Rate Measures
- There are four important ways of measuring (and
reporting) interest rates on financial
instruments. These are - Coupon yield The promised annual percent
return on a coupon instrument. - Current Yield Bonds annual coupon payment
divided by its current market price. - Discount Yield and Investment Yield The yield
on T-bills (and other discounted securities, such
as commercial paper) which are selling at a
discount of their maturity values. - Yield to Maturity The interest rate that
equates the future payments to be received from a
financial instrument (coupons plus maturity
value) with its market price today (i.e., to its
present value).
6Coupon Yield
- Coupon yield is the annual interest rate which
was promised by the issuer when a bond is first
sold. - Information is found in the bonds indenture.
- The coupon yield is expressed as a percentage of
the bonds par value. - Par value is also called the maturity value (or
face value). - In the United States, all bonds have a par value
of 1,000 (Government bonds called Treasurys). - UK Government bonds (100 par value called
gilts) - Japanese Government bonds (10,000 par value
called JGBs) - German Government bonds (100 par value, called
bunds) - Canadian Government bonds (CAD1,000 par value)
- If a bond has a stated coupon yield of 4.5, this
means that it will pay the holder 45 per year
(0.045 x 1,000). - The coupon yield on a bond will not change during
the lifespan of the bond.
7Current Yield
- Since bond prices are likely to change, we often
refer to the current yield which is measured by
dividing a bonds annual coupon payment by its
current market price. - This provides us with a measure of the interest
yield obtained at the current market price (i.e.,
cost) - Current yield coupon payment/market price
- So, if our 4.5 coupon bond is currently selling
at 900 the calculated current yield is - 45/900 5.00
- And if the bond is selling at 1,100, the current
yield is - 45/1,100 4.09
8Discount and Investment Yield
- Discount yields and investment yields are
calculated for T-bills and other short term money
market instruments (e.g., commercial paper and
bankers acceptances) where there are no stated
coupons (and thus the assets are quoted at a
discount of their maturity value). - The discount yield relates the return to the
instruments par (or face or maturity) value. - The discount yield is sometimes called the bank
discount rate or the discount rate. - The investment yield relates the return to the
instruments current market price. - The investment yield is sometimes called the
coupon equivalent yield, the bond equivalent
rate, the effective yield or the interest yield.
9Calculating the Discount Yield
- Discount yield (PV - MP)/PV 360/M
- PV par (or face or maturity) value
- MP market price
- M maturity of bill.
- For a new three-month T-bill (13 weeks) use 91,
and for a six-month T-bill (26 weeks) use 182. - For outstanding issues, use the actual days to
maturity. - Note 360 is the number of days used by banks
to determine short-term interest rates.
10Discount Yield Example
- What is the discount yield for a 182-day T-bill,
with a market price of 965.93 (per 1,000 par,
or face, value)? - Discount yield (PV - MP)/PV 360/M
- Discount yield (1,000) - (965.93) / (1,000)
360/182Discount yield 34.07 / 1,000
1.978022Discount yield .0673912 6.74
11Investment Yield
- The investment yield is generally calculated so
that we can compare the return on T-bills to
coupon investment options. - The calculated investment yield is comparable to
the yields on coupon bearing securities, such as
long term bonds and notes. - As noted The investment yield relates the return
to the instruments current market price. - In addition, the investment yield is based on a
calendar year 365 days, or 366 in leap years. - Investment yield (PV - MP)/MP 365 or
366/M
12Investment Yield Example
- What is the investment yield of a 182-day T-bill,
with a market price of 965.93 per 1,000 par, or
face, value? - Investment yield (PV - MP)/MP
365/MInvestment yield (1,000 965.93) /
(965.93) 365/182Investment yield 34.07
/ 965.93 2.0054945Investment yield
.0707372 7.07
13Comparing Discount and Investment Yields
- Looking at the last two examples we found
- Discount yield (PV - MP)/PV 360/M
- Discount yield (1,000) - (965.93) / (1,000)
360/182Discount yield 34.07 / 1,000
1.978022Discount yield .0673912 6.74 - Investment yield (PV - MP)/MP
365/MInvestment yield (1,000 965.93) /
(965.93) 365/182Investment yield 34.07
/ 965.93 2.0054945Investment yield
.0707372 7.07 - Note The discount formula will tend to
understate yields relative to those computed by
the investment method, because the market price
is lower than the par value (1,000). - However, if the market price is very close to the
par value, the yields will be similar. - See http//www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finan
ce/debt-management/interest-rate/daily_treas_bill_
rates.shtml - And http//www.treasurydirect.gov/RI/OFBills
14Bloomberg and Reported Yields on T-Bills
- Go to http//www.Bloomberg.com
- Go to Market Data
- Go to Rates and Bonds
- You will see for U.S. Treasuries the following
data (note this is an example from the Jan 1,
2009 site) - Coupon Maturity Current
Date Price/Yield - 3-month 0.000 4/30/2009 0.22/.23
- 6-month 0.000 7/30/2009 0.34/.34
- 12-month 0.000 1/14/2010 0.46/.47
- Key These are T-bills, thus the coupon is 0
(recall they are sold at a discount). At maturity
date they will pay the holder 1,000. The
current price is the discount yield (bank
discount yield) and the current yield is the
investment yield (bond or coupon equivalent
yield).
15Yield to Maturity
- The yield to maturity uses the concept of present
value in its determination. - Yield to maturity is the interest rate at which
if we discount the incomes (i.e., cash-flows) of
a bond, we get the par value exactly (or the net
present value 0). - Yield to maturity (i) is calculated as
- MP Market price of a bond (i.e., present value)
- C Coupon payments (a cash flow)
- PV Par, or face value, at maturity (a cash
flow) - n Years to maturity
- Note i is also the internal rate of return
16Yield to Maturity Example
- Assume the following given variablesC 40
(thus a 4.0 coupon issue paid annually)N 10
PV 1,000MP 1,050 (note bond is selling at
a premium of par) - 1050 40/(1 i)1 40/(1 i)2 . . . 40/(1
i)10 1000/(1 i)10 - Solve for i, the yield to maturity
- Note The i" calculated using this formula will
be the return that you will be getting when the
bond is held until it matures and assuming that
the periodic coupon payments are reinvested at
the same yield. In this example, the i" is 3.4.
17Yield to Maturity Second Example
- Now assume the following
- C 40 N 10PV 1,000MP 900.00 (note bond
is selling at a discount of par) - 900 40/(1 i)1 40/(1 i)2 . . . 40/(1
i)10 1,000/(1 i)10 - Solve for i, the yield to maturity
- Note The i" calculated in this example is
5.315. - What one factor accounts for the yield to
maturity difference when compared to the previous
slide, with its i of 3.4?
18Useful Web Site for Calculating a Bonds Yield to
Maturity
- While yields to maturity can be determined
through a book of bond tables or through business
calculators, the following is a useful web site
for doing so - http//www.money-zine.com/Calculators/Investment-C
alculators/Bond-Yield-Calculator/
19The Yield to Maturity
- Think of the yield to maturity as the required
return on an investment. - Since the required return changes over time, we
can expect these changes to produce inverse
changes in the prices on outstanding (seasoned)
bonds. - Why will the required return change over time?
- Changes in inflation
- Changes in the economys credit conditions
- Changes in central bank policies
- Changes in the credit risk associated with the
issuer of the bond
20Illustrating the Relationship Between Interest
Rates and Bond Prices
- Assume the following
- A 10 year corporate Aaa bond which was issued 8
years ago (thus it has 2 years to maturity) has a
coupon rate of 7, with interest paid annually. - Thus, 7 was the required return when this bond
was issued. - This bond is referred to as an outstanding (or
seasoned) bond. - Question How much will a holder of this bond
receive in interest payments each year? - This bond has a par value of 1,000.
- Question How much will a holder of this bond
receive in principal payment at the end of 2
years?
21What Happens when Interest Rates Rise?
- Assume, market interest rates rise (i.e., the
required return rises) and now 2 year Aaa
corporate bonds are now offering coupon returns
of 10. - This is the current required return (or i in
the present value bond formula) - Question What will the market pay (i.e., market
price) for the outstanding 2 year, 7 coupon bond
noted on the previous slide? - PV 70/(1.10) 1,070/(1.10)2
- PV 947.94 (this is todays market price)
- Note The 2 year bonds price has fallen below
par (selling at a discount of its par value). - Conclusion When market interest rates rise, the
prices on outstanding bonds will fall.
22What Happens when Interest Rates Fall?
- Assume, market interest rates fall (i.e., the
required return falls) and now 2 year Aaa
corporate bonds are now offering coupon returns
of 5. - This is the current required return (or i in
the present value bond formula) - Question What will the market pay (i.e., market
price) for the outstanding 2 year, 7 coupon
bond? - PV 70/(1.05) 1,070/(1.05)2
- PV 1,037.19 (this is todays market price)
- Note The 2 year bonds price has risen above par
(selling at a premium of its par value). - Conclusion When market interest rates fall, the
prices on outstanding bonds will rise.
23What if the Time to Maturity Varies?
- Assume a one year bond (7 coupon) and the market
interest rate rises to 10, or falls to 5. - PV_at_10 1,070/(1.10)
- PV 972.72
- PV _at_5 1,070/(1.05)
- PV 1,019.05
- Now assume a two year bond (7 coupon) and the
market interest rate rises to 10, or falls to 5 - PV_at_10 70/(1.10) 1,070/(1.10)2
- PV 947.94
- PV_at_5 70/(1.05) 1,070/(1.05) 2
- PV 1037.19
- Conclusion For a given interest rate change,
the longer the term to maturity, the greater the
bonds price change.
24Summary The Interest Rate Bond Price
Relationship
- 1 When the market interest rate (i.e., the
required rate) rises above the coupon rate on a
bond, the price of the bond falls (i.e., it sells
at a discount of par). - 2 When the market interest rate (i.e., the
required rate) falls below the coupon rate on a
bond, the price of the bond rises (i.e., it sells
at a premium of par) - IMPORTANT There is an inverse relationship
between market interest rates and bond prices (on
outstanding or seasoned bonds). - 3 The price of a bond will always equal par if
the market interest rate equals the coupon rate.
25Summary The Interest Rate Bond Price
Relationship Continued
- 4 The greater the term to maturity, the greater
the change in price (on outstanding bonds) for a
given change in market interest rates. - This becomes very important when developing a
bond portfolio-maturity strategy which
incorporates expected changes in interest rates. - This is the strategy used by bond traders
- What if you think interest rates will fall?
Where should you concentrate the maturity of your
bonds? - What if you think interest rates will rise?
Where should you concentrate the maturity of your
bonds? - See Appendix 1 for Excel Calculation of bond
prices.
26Interest Rate (or Price) Risk on a Bond
- Defined The risk associated with a reduction in
the market price of a bond, resulting from a rise
in market interest rates. - This risk is present because of the inverse
relationship between market interest rates and
bond prices. - Greatest risk (i.e., potential price change) the
longer the maturity of the fixed income security
you are holding and the greater the interest rate
change. - For a historical example, see the next slide.
27Illustration of Price Risk 1950 - 1970
28Reinvestment Risk on a Bond
- Reinvestment risk occurs because of the need to
roll over securities at maturity, i.e.,
reinvesting the par value into a new security. - Problem for bond holder The interest rate you
can obtain at roll over is unknown while you are
holding these outstanding securities. - Issue What if market interest rates fall?
- You will then re-invest at a lower interest rate
then the rate you had on the maturing bond. - Potential reinvestment risk is greater when
holding shorter term fixed income securities. - With longer term bonds, you have locked in a
known return over the long term. - For a historical example, see the next slide
29Illustration of Reinvestment Issue 1990 - 2008
30Concept of Bond Duration
- Issue The fact that two bonds have the same
term to maturity does not necessarily mean that
they carry the same interest rate risk (i.e.,
potential for a given change in price). - Assume the following two bonds
- (1) A 20 year, 10 coupon bond and
- (2) A 20 year, 6 coupon bond.
- Which one do you think has the greatest interest
rate (i.e., price change) risk for a given change
in interest rates? - Hint Think of the present value formula (market
price of a bond) and which bond will pay off more
quickly to the holder (in terms of coupon cash
flows).
31Solution to Previous Question
- Assume interest rates change (increase) by 100
basis points, then for each bond we can determine
the following market price. - 20-year, 10 coupon bonds market price (at a
market interest rate of 11) 919.77 - 20-year, 6 coupon bonds market price (at a
market interest rate of 7) 893.22 - Observation The bond with the higher coupon,
(10) will pay back quicker (i.e., produces more
income early on), thus the impact of the new
discount rate on its cash flow is less.
32Duration and Interest Rate Risk
- Duration is an estimate of the average lifetime
of a securitys stream of payments. - Duration rules
- (1) The lower the coupon rate (maturity equal),
the longer the duration. - (2) The longer the term to maturity (coupon
equal), the longer duration. - (3) Zero-coupon bonds, which have only one cash
flow, have durations equal to their maturity. - Duration is a measure of risk because it has a
direct relationship with price volatility. - The longer the duration of a bond, the greater
the interest rate (price) risk and the shorter
the duration of a bond, the less the interest
rate risk.
33Calculated Durations
- Duration for a 10 year bond assuming different
coupons yields - Coupon 10 Duration 6.54 yrs
- Coupon 5 Duration 7.99 yrs
- Zero Coupon Duration 10 years
- Duration for a 10 coupon bond assuming different
maturities - 5 years Duration 4.05yrs
- 10 years Duration 6.54 yrs
- 20 years Duration 9.00 yrs
- Note See Appendix 2 for Excel calculations
34Using Duration in Portfolio Management
- Given that the greater the duration of a bond,
the greater its price volatility (i.e., interest
rate risk), we can apply the following - (1) For those who wish to minimize interest rate
risk, they should consider bonds with high coupon
payments and shorter maturities (also stay away
from zero coupon bonds). - Objective Reduce the duration of their bond
portfolio. - (2) For those who wish to maximize the potential
for price changes, they should consider bonds
with low coupon payments and longer maturities
(including zero coupon bonds). - Objective Increase the duration of their bond
portfolio
35Interest Rates Money and Capital Market
Instruments, 2008 and 2009
- Yields in percent per annum
- Sept 4, 2008 Jan 22, 2009
- Money Markets
- T-Bills (91 days) 1.66 0.10
- Commercial Paper (3 months) 2.11 0.29
- CDs (3 months) 2.79 1.07
- Prime Loans 5.00 3.25
- Capital Markets
- Aaa Industrial Bonds 5.46 5.21
- Baa Industrial Bonds 7.01 8.24
- Government Bonds (30 years) 4.27 3.25
- Source http//www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h1
5/update/
36Bond Market Data, 2009
- The Economist, Jan 29, 2009
- The average stock market investor had a
miserable year in 2008. By contrast, holders of
government bonds did rather well, as falling
interest rates lifted prices. Bonds that started
the year with the highest yields had most scope
for capital gains. That helps to explain why the
return on Australian bonds was the highest in the
13 countries making up JPMorgans global bond
index. Short-term interest rates were also
slashed in Britain and America, driving long-term
rates down and bond prices up. Sovereign-bond
investors in Japan, where interest rates were
already low, did worst in local-currency terms.
37Savings versus Borrowing Rates They Move
Together, 1990 -
38With Short Term Rates Being Driven by the Federal
Reserve
39But the Relationship is Not as Clear with Long
Term Rates
40The Real Interest Rate
- Real interest rate
- This is the market (or nominal) interest rate
that is adjusted for expected changes in the
price level (i.e., inflation) and is calculated
as follows - irr imr - pe
Where irr real rate of interest (
p.a.) imr market (nominal) rate of interest
( p.a.) pe expected annual rate of
inflation, i.e., the average annual price level
change over the maturity of the financial asset
( p.a.)
41Real Interest Rate Impacts on Borrowing and
Investing
- We assume that real interest rates more
accurately reflect the true cost of borrowing and
true returns to lenders and/or investors. - Assume imr 10 and pe 12 then
- irr 10 - 12 -2
- When the real rate is low (or negative), there
should be a greater incentive to borrow and less
incentive to lend (or invest). - Assume Imr 10 and pe 1 then
- Irr 10 - 1 9
- When the real rate is high, there should be less
incentive to borrow and more incentive to lend
(or invest).
42U.S. Real and Nominal Interest Rates 1953-2007
43Real Interest Rate as an Indicator of Monetary
Policy
- The real interest rate (on the fed funds rate) is
also assumed to be a better measure of the stance
of monetary policy than just the market interest
rate. - Why Real rate affects borrowing decisions.
- If the real rate is negative, or very low,
monetary policy is very accommodative and
borrowing will be encouraged. - If the real rate high, monetary policy is very
tight and borrowing will be discouraged. - A neutral monetary policy occurs when the real
rate is zero.
44Example of Nominal Versus Real Rate
- U.S. experiences the 2000 dot-com stock market
crash and terrorist- attack induced recession
of 2001 - March 11, 2000 to October 9, 2002, Nasdaq lost
78 of its value. - In response the Fed pushed the fed funds rates to
1.0 (levels not seen since the 1950s)
45Real Fed Funds Rate
- Real Rate Goes Negative 2003/04
- Effective Rate ______
- Go to http//www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker
FEDL013AIND - Latest Inflation ______
- Go to
- http//www.bls.gov/bls/inflation.htm
- Your analysis of monetary policy and credit
conditions in the economy?
46Another Web Site for Calculating Yields
- Visit the web site below. It allows you to
calculate the current yield and yield to maturity
for specific data you input on - Current Market Price
- Coupon Rate
- Years to Maturity
- It also allows you to calculate present values.
- Use this web site to test your understanding of
the relationship between bond prices and interest
rates. - See what happens to the calculated interest rates
when you change the bond price above and below
the par value. - Note the inverse relationship.
- http//www.moneychimp.com/calculator/bond_yield_ca
lculator.htm
47Internet Source of Interest Rate Date
- Historical and Current Data for U.S.
- http//www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/update/
- Real Time Data (U.S. and other major countries)
- http//www.bloomberg.com
- Go to Market Data and then to Rates and Bonds
- Other Countries
- Economist.com (both web source or hard copy)
48Appendix 1
- Using Excel to Calculate the Market Price
(Present Value) of a Bond
49Using Excel to Calculate Bond Price
- Go to Formulas in Microsoft Excel
- Go to Financial
- Go to Price
- Insert Your Data
- Example for 20 year, 10 coupon bond with market
rate of 11 - Settlement DATE(2009,2,1) Assume, Feb 1, 2009
- Maturity DATE(2029,2,1) Note 20 years to
maturity - Rate 10 (this is the coupon yield)
- Yld 11 (this is the yield to maturity)
- Redemption 100 (this is the price per 100)
- Frequency 2 (assume interest is paid
semi-annually) - Basis 3 (this basis uses a 365 day calendar
year) - Formula result (i.e., price per 100 face value)
91.97694 (or 919.77)
50Appendix 2
- Using Excel to Calculate the Duration of a Bond
51Using Excel to Calculate Duration
- Go to Formulas in Microsoft Excel
- Go to Financial
- Go to Duration
- Insert Your Data
- Example for 10 year, 10 coupon bond with market
rate of 10 - Settlement DATE(2009,2,1) Assume, Feb 1, 2009
- Maturity DATE(2019,2,1) Note 10 years to
maturity - Rate 10 (this is the coupon yield)
- Yld 10 (this is the yield to maturity)
- Frequency 2 (assume interest is paid
semi-annually) - Basis 3 (this basis uses a 365 day calendar
year) - Formula result 6.54266
52Appendix 3
- The Real Interest Rate during a period of
deflation
53What if the Rate of Inflation is Negative (i.e.,
Deflation)
- Assume the following
- imr 3 and pe -2
- Then the calculated real rate would be
- irr 3 - (-2) 5
- Issues
- 1. What will be the economys incentive to
borrow? - High or low.
- 2, What are the issues facing the central bank
when the economy is experiencing deflation? - How can borrowing be encouraged?
54Appendix 4
- Types of Debt Instruments and Lending Terms
552 Basic Types of Debt Instruments
- Discount Bond (Zero-coupon Bond)
- A bond whose purchase price is below the face (or
par) value of the bond (i.e., at a discount) - The entire face (par) value is paid at maturity.
- There are no interest payments.
- U.S. Treasury bills are an example of a discount
security (as is commercial paper and bankers
acceptances). - Coupon Bond
- A bond that pays periodic interest payments
(stated as the coupon rate) for a specified
period of time after which the total principal
(face or par value) is repaid. - In the United States and Japan, interest payments
are typically made every six months and in Europe
typically once a year. - coupon bonds can sell at either a discount or
premium (of par value). - These bonds are generally callable.
- Issuer can retire them before their stated
maturity date. - Why do you think they might do this?
56Important Terms in Lending
- (Loan) Principal the amount of funds the lender
provides to the borrower. - Maturity Date the date the loan must be repaid
or refinanced. - (Loan) Term the time period from initiation of
the loan to the maturity date. - Interest Payment the cash amount that the
borrower must pay the lender for the use of the
loan principal. - (Simple) Interest Rate the annual interest
payment divided by the loan principal. - In bond terminology, the coupon interest rate is
the annual interest payment divided by the par
value.
57Types of Loans
- Simple Loan Principal and all interest both
paid at maturity (i.e., date when loan comes
due). - Borrow 1,000 today at 5 and in 1 year pay
1,050 - Commercial bank loans to businesses are usually
simply loans. - Fixed-payment Loan Equal monthly payments
representing a portion of the principal borrowed
plus interest. Paid for a set number of years, at
which time (maturity date) the principal amount
is fully repaid. - Referred to as an amortized loan.
- Home mortgages (conventional), automobile loans.
58Amortization Loan Example Real Estate
- Mortgage Loan
- Principal Amount 500,000
- Years To Maturity 30 years (with monthly
payments) - Interest rate 7 (fixed rate mortgage)
- Monthly Payment
- 3,326.51 (for 360 months, i.e., 30 years)
- First Month Payment (n 1)
- Principal 409.84 Interest 2,916.67 (or,
3,326.51) - Last Month Payment (n 360)
- Principal 3,307.22 Interest 19.29 (or,
3,326.51)
59Appendix 5
- Quoting Treasury Notes and Bonds
60Treasury Prices in 32nds
- Treasury note and bond prices are quoted in
dollars and fractions of a dollar. - By market convention, the normal fraction used
for Treasury security prices is 1/32 (of 1). - In a quoted price, the decimal point separates
the full dollar portion of the price from the
32nds of a dollar, which are to the right of the
decimal. - Thus a quote of 100.08 means 105 plus 8/32 of a
dollar, or 100.25, for each 100 face value of
the note. - Note the symbol refers to ½ of 1/32nd.
- Change data is the difference between the current
trading day's price and the price of the
preceding trading day. It, too, is a shorthand
reference to 32nds of a point. - For example, a 16 refers to a change of 16/32 or
50 cents from the previous day.