Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transport IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report

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Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from
TransportIPCCs Fourth Assessment Report

• Steven Plotkin
• Argonne National Laboratory
• Mumbai and Kolkata, India
• October 9, 2007

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Summary

• Transport 23 of world energy-related GHG
  emissions growing faster than other end-use
  sectors .so must be a critical part of
  mitigation strategy.
• Emissions growth is slowing in developed world,
  but rapid motorization in developing nations is
  driving worldwide growth in emissions (2002-2030
  80!).
• Transports tie to oil adds to importance of
  mitigation!
• Advanced vehicle technology, low carbon fuels,
  urban planning, shifting to more efficient modes,
  and appropriate pricing all have crucial roles to
  play in mitigation.
• Best strategy will depend on local conditions.

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Transport energy and GHG emissions will grow
rapidly, especially in the developing world.

• Energy and GHG emissions growth 1-2/yr in
  developed world, 3-5/yr in developing
  world.India at nearly 5/yr, China 6
• 96 of transport energy comes from oil
• Road vehicles three quarters of total

By 2030, transport GHG emissions will grow by
80 compared to 2002 if current trends continue.
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If oil becomes scarce, alternative fuels can
profoundly affect GHG emissions.

• The obvious replacement fuels will come from
  unconventional oil, coal, and natural gas (GTL)
• higher
  greenhouse emissions
• Biofuels can play a major role, with positive GHG
  emissions effects.but must avoid negative
  impacts on the environment and on food supplies
• And some current biofuels are neither
  cost-effective nor especially climate-friendly
• Incentives to much greater efficiency generally
  will have positive effects, but watch the costs

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Development and rising income will bring
motorization, but alternative development
pathways can yield radically different outcomes.
Emphasis on private vehicles, unplanned
development
Strong public transport, planned urban development
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Reducing auto dependence requires attention to
public transport, biking and walking careful
urban planning and many other measures

• Can achieve fewer cars plus less driving per car
  U.S., 13,000 miles/yr Europe, 8,000 miles per
  year Japan, 6,000 miles/yr
• Geography is important, but policy plays a major
  role
• Are cities designed for cars or for people?
• Strength of public transport, design for walking
  and biking
• Parking policies/fuel taxes/registration
  taxes/etc
• Examples of success are limited but encouraging
• Bus rapid transit in Curitiba, Bogota, Quito
• Chinese cities combining pedestrian areas,
  restricted bus lanes, bikeways
• Londons pricing experiment is being replicated

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Light-duty vehicles 45 of transport emissions
new LDV fuel economy could rise by 50-100 by
the late 2020s if

• Advanced technology is used
• low loads 0.22 aero drag coefficient, 0.006
  tire rolling resistance, 20 weight reduction,
  super-efficient accessories
• Downsized, high efficiency drivetrain DI
  gasoline or diesel, hybridization, advanced
  transmissions, etc.
• The right policies are implemented fuel economy
  standards?
• Appropriate timing, recognizing manufacturer
  schedules
• Stringency based on weighing technology, cost,
  urgency
• Improved structure to maximize fairness, avoid
  distortions
• We find a way to stop the horsepower wars
• Fuel economy is traded off against power, size,
  luxury

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A key condition will be resisting trends to
faster, heavier, more luxurious cars..
Attribute trends
What could have happened
What did happen
In the U.S., fuel economy improvement potential
has been lost to more power, luxury, and sizeand
the same thing is happening in Europe and
elsewhere.
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Multiple additional policies to restrain light
vehicle energy use and GHG emissions

• Registration and annual fees based on efficiency,
  power, engine size, etc.
• Fuel taxes to restrain demand, account for
  externalities
• Feebate systems to reward efficient vehicles,
  penalize inefficient ones
• Parking cash back and taxes/restrictions
• Road pricing and central city access fees
• Other Transport Demand Management strategies
• Ecodriving

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Longer-term, hydrogen fuel cells, plug-in hybrids
and advanced biofuels are promising but all
require major advances, esp. in reducing costs.

• Benefits depend on details of the full fuel cycle
  how the hydrogen is produced, how the
  electricity is generated.
• With current biofuels, ethanol from sugar cane
  has strongest emission reduction ethanol from
  corn has modest reductions, potential for
  food/fuel conflicts
• Biofuels from cellulosic materials appear most
  promising, but require substantial RD progress
• Strong RD support is crucial for hydrogen fuel
  cells and batteries for plug-in hybrids

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Freight transport is often ignored in analyses,
but its 35 of transport emissions and growing
fast!

• Continuing shift to faster, more energy-intensive
  modes
• Freight trucks now dominate energy use and GHG
  emissions air freight is small but growing fast
• Technology improvement is crucial hybridization
  for urban delivery vehicles, improved diesels for
  all, better aerodynamics for highway trucks
• Improved logistics and multi-modal deliveries
  combination of overcoming institutional barriers,
  computerizing networks

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Technologies and policies exist for air travel,
shipping, and other modes

• AIR Blended wing bodies, laminar flow control,
  advanced turbofan engines advanced traffic
  controls
• SHIPPING Sails and solar panels, advanced
  hydrodynamic hulls, biofuels

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GHG reduction strategies for the transport sector
are complex, and many are intensely local

• This presentation only scrapes the surface of the
  issue.
• India and other South Asian nations can use a
  host of technology solutions available to all
  nations, but a crucial part of the solution must
  lie in choices about how to shape their cities
  and provide transport services to all their
  citizens.
• We recognize that reducing GHG emissions may take
  a secondary place to issues such as relieving
  congestion, providing transport services to the
  poor, reducing air pollution, etc.but carefully
  planned solutions can address both sets of
  issues.