Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures

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Inconvenient Truths and Uncertain Futures

• Summary of HC 434 Physics and Politics of Global
  Climate Change

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Our basic Expectation
Long wavelength absorption properties of our
atmosphere increase the surface temperature-
Water vapor is the dominant effect, followed by
CO2
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Ice Core data

• Provides compelling qualitative evidence of the
  relation between temperature and CO2
• But time resolution is insufficient to truly show
  if CO2 is a driver or follower of temperature
  change

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Hockey Stick Problems

• Role of urbanization may not be adequately
  account for
• Average temperature of the Earth may not be a
  physically meaningful quantity.
• Reliability of multi-century record is
  questionable
• Two D representation is most convincing

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Methane

• Potential role of methane is larger than CO2
• GWP 21
• Scales with population growth
• Released from permafrost
• Released from hydrate deposits
• Emissions now rising again due to global wetlands
  returning from prolonged drought

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Competition among anthropogenic forces
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Feedbacks are huge uncertainty
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Solubility of CO2 is decreasing Ocean sink now
less than before
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Ocean PH Rising
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Oceans no longer scale with increasing emissions
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Future Scenarios
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Really, Three Choices

• BAU because we cant learn or dont know how to
  do anything differently ? react to disasters as
  they come
• A1T Alternative energy technology and fuels
  will come in time
• B1 We do what Cronon suggests ? understand that
  wilderness is everywhere and behave accordingly

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Carbon Trading

• Emission space is fixed ? bid or contract on
  emissions
• Effective trading requires many sources of
  generation
• What process determines size of emission space?
• What is the penalty for exceeding your emissions
  cap?

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Carbon Market

• In principle is very large, but how oversees it,
  accounts for it, verifies it?

Note that the CDM is supposed to encourage China
to switch from Coal to Natural Gas to lower its
share of the carbon market. This is not
happening to date
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Carbon, Capture and Storage

• Without a real market, whats the incentive for
  CCS?
• CCS technologies are not mature and need to be
  tested.
• Porosity of sequestration needs to be tested
  only sure reserve is deep ocean
• CCS the most politically sensible pathway to
  stablization

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Stabilization and Wedges

• 1 Wedge 1 Gigaton of Carbon per year
• This is a global effort
• Again, real carbon market could help provide
  various incentives
• And remember, global carbon emissions are now
  increasing annually

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Gaining a Wedge

• Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30
  to 60 mpg
• or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30 mpg
  cars from 10,000 to 5000
• Efficient buildings cut carbon emissions in
  buildings by 25
• Increase coal fired electricity efficiency from
  40 to 60 using advanced high temperature
  materials

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IPCC Scenarios

• Once again, three real choices
• Remain Market Driven
• Hope that technological leaps occur
• Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness
  that is needed to reduce personal consumption.
• Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)3.5
• Increasing global inequity should no longer be
  tolerated. Arent all men created equal?
• Your generation is inheriting the legacy of greed

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Resource Depletion

• Global resource use took a sudden uptick starting
  around 2000
• The world is currently in the most unsustainable
  epoch in history !

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We Are At Peak Oil!!
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Global Carbon Intensity is Increasing
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Sustainability, My Ass
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Markets need an ethical dimension
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Waveform of Fuckedness
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Raisins for Everyone
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Along with Malaria
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And we Policy Wank our way along

• "The United States is committed to reducing the
  greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy
  by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002
  to 2012.

Whoops ?
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Which box do we want to be in?
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What to Do?

• Subversive videos on You Tube dont hurt
• Drive less Period. Period. Period.
• Act according to Cronons imperative Wilderness
  is Everywhere
• Properly factor in avoidance costs in economic
  modeling of climate change

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20 Million College Students

• Have inherited this world

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Your Choice Matrix Give up or Not