SELECTION OF WATER QUALITY MONITORING SITES and CSUs STARMAP

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SELECTION OF WATER QUALITY MONITORING
SITESandCSUs STARMAP
byN. Scott Urquhart Department of
Statistics Colorado State University Director of
STARMAP
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EPAs CURRENT GUIDANCE for 305b

• States and territories are encouraged to use
  probabilistic designs for water quality
  assessments and to include reports of these
  assessments with their Integrated Reports.
• SOURCE The Total Maximun Load (TMDL) Program,
  Office of Water, November 19, 2001. Memorandum
  concerning 2002 Integrated Water Quality
  Monitoring and Assessment Report Guidance

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STARMAP FUNDING

• EPA
• OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
• NOT FUNDED BY OFFICE OF WATER
• ROUTINE (REQUIRED) DISCLAIMER
• The work reported here today was developed
  under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement
  CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental
  Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State
  University. This presentation has not been
  formally reviewed by EPA.  The views expressed
  here are solely those of presenter and the
  STARMAP, the Program he represents. EPA does not
  endorse any products or commercial services
  mentioned in this presentation.

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HOW SHOULD WATER QUALITY MONITORING SITES BE
SELECTED?

• Depends on OBJECTIVES
• Evaluating the effect of a known point source
• Evaluate quality above and below point source
• Trying to find unidentified point source
• Start from known presence of pollutant
• Work upstream checking concentration of
  pollutant in each branch.
• Characterizing all waters in some domain
• Like for Clean Water Act 305b reporting
• Select sites randomly
• Increasingly being done by states
• Endorsed by EPAs Office of water
• More generally, variable probability is possible

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STATES ARE BEGINNING TO USE PROBABILITY-BASED
SITE SELECTION
States adopting EMAP designs
States evaluating EMAP designs
States considering EMAP designs
Courtesy of Steve Paulsen, EPA
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QUICK ILLUSTRATION

• To investigate flow status of stream
  traces identified as intermittent
• Sampling frame USGS/EPA National
  Hydrography Dataset (NHD)
• 100 sites in each state the 12 states in EPA
  Regions 8, 9, 10.

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IMPORTANCE OF EMAP-TYPE DESIGNS
Condition of a States streams using
different designs
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NORTH EAST LAKES STUDIES

• EMAP NORTHEAST LAKES PILOT
• PROBABILITY SAMPLE OF ALL LAKES IN THE
  NORTHEASTERN US
• SECCHI TRANSPARENCY EVALUATED (AMONG MANY
  RESPONSES)
• GREAT AMERICAN DIP-IN LAKES
• 5,000 PARTICIPANTS IN VARIOUS LAKE MONITORING
  PROGRAMS (US-WIDE)
• VOLUNTEERS WERE ASKED TO EVALUATE SECCHI
  TRANSPARENCY IN THEIR LAKES BETWEEN 7/1/95 AND
  7/9/95 (AND AGAIN IN 1996)

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NORTH EAST LAKES STUDIES - II

• ONE INFORMATION SOURCE
• SAMPLE REPRESENTATIVENESS A MUST FOR RELIABLE
  REGIONAL LAKE CONDITION ESTIMATES OF LAKE
  CONDITION
• by S.A. Peterson, N. S. Urquhart, and E. B.
  Welsh Environmental Science and Technology 33
  1559 - 1565. (1999)

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SIZE OF NORTH EAST LAKES STUDIES

• EMAP NORTHEAST LAKES PILOT
• 312 LAKES SAMPLED
• GREAT AMERICAN DIP-IN LAKES
• 422 LAKES REPORTED FOR NORTHEAST
• POINT THESE TWO DATA SETS ARE OF FAIRLY SIMILAR
  SIZE

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SECCHI DEPTH IN LAKES EVALUATED BY BOTH EMAP and
DIP-IN
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ESTIMATED CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF
SECCHI DEPTH, EMAP AND DIP-IN
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CONCLUSIONS

• THE SHORTCOMINGS OF A CONVENIENCE COLLECTION OF
  SITES CANNOT BE OVERCOME BY EITHER
• ABSENCE OF A PLAN TO BIAS THE SITUATIONS
  EXAMINED, or
• LARGE DATA SETS
• gt SEVERELY LIMITS THE BREADTH OF ANY
  INFERENCES WHICH CAN BE DRAWN FROM RESAMPLING
  STUDIES
• BOOTSTRAPPING
• JACKKNIFING

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A PROGRAM INSTATISTICAL SURVEY DESIGN AND
ANALYSIS FOR AQUATIC RESOURCES

• STARMAP THE PROGRAM AT
• COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

• SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCES
• MODELING AND ANALYSIS PROGRAM

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SUMMARY OF BACKGROUNDfor STARMAP

• Probability-based surveys of aquatic resources
  have a role and will be implemented
• Important associated questions
• How should we combine
• Probability survey data with
• Data from purposefully picked sites?
• How can we incorporate remotely
  sensed information (satellite) with ground
  data?
• Role of landscape data (GIS) is?
• How can we make accurate predictions of water
  quality at unvisited sites, using all of above?

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STARMAPS MAJOR OBJECTIVES

• TO ADVANCE THE SCIENCE OF STATISTICS TO ADDRESS
  SUCH QUESTIONS
• TECHNIQUES OF HIERARCHICAL SURVEY DESIGN AND
  ALLIED TECHNIQUES
• SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING
• BAYESIAN METHODOLOGY
• TO DEVELOP AND EXTEND THE EXPERTISE ON DESIGN
  AND ANALYSIS TO THE STATES AND TRIBES

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STARMAPS VISION

• PERSPECTIVE
• A SEARCHING ANALYSIS OF A REAL, MODERATELY
  COMPLEX, DATA SET ALMOST ALWAYS GENERATES
  QUESTIONS WHOSE ANSWER CALLS FOR AN EXTENSION
  OF EXISTING STATISTICAL THEORY OR METHODOLOGY.

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STARMAP PROJECTS

• COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA SETS - JENNIFER
  HOETING
• LOCAL ESTIMATION - JAY BREIDT
• INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT - DAVE THEOBALD (CSUS
  Natural Resources Ecology Lab)
• OUTREACH - SCOTT URQUHART
• This is why I am here

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COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSUCONTINUED

• COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES
• SUB-STATE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AUTHORITIES
• EPA PERSONNEL
• REGIONS 8, 9 10
• HEADQUARTERS
• OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
• OFFICE OF WATER
• TRIBAL SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL
• EPA LABS
• ..

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COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSUCONTINUED 2

• COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES
• EPA PERSONNEL
• EPA LABS
• WESTERN ECOLOGY LAB - CORVALLIS
• MIDWESTERN ECOLOGY LAB - DULUTH, MN
• EASTERN ECOLOGY LAB
• ECOSYSTEMS RESEARCH DIVISION
• LAS VEGAS LAB - LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY
• STATE PERSONNEL
• MAINLY AT OSU, SO FAR

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A CROSS-PROJECT THRUST

• FLOW AND FLOW STATUS
• EPA DIRECTIVES TO STATES AND TRIBES
• PROBABILITY SAMPLING
• OBSTACLES TO ACCURATE PROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING

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FLOW AND FLOW STATUS

• FLOW - AN INDICATOR OF BASE FLOW QUANTITY
• FLOW STATUS
• PERENNIAL
• NON-PERENNIAL
• CLIENT STATE AND TRIBAL WATER QUALITY AGENCIES
• REPORTING UNDER 305b OF CLEAN WATER ACT

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A MAJOR PROBLEM FOR PROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING OF
WATER BODIES

• PROBABILITY-BASED SELECTION OF SITES RELIES ON A
  FRAME OR LIST OF POTENTIAL SITES
• THE NATIONAL HYDROGRAPHY DATASET (NHD) - BASED
  ON BLUE LINES ON USGS MAPS IS THE ONLY
  PRACTICALLY AVAILABLE FRAME MATERIALS
• MAJOR PROBLEM FRAME ERRORS

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FRAME ERRORSTO BE DOCUMENTED SHORTLY

• WATER BODY SIZE
• IMPORTANCE OF SIZE WILL BE ADDRESSED SHORTLY
• FLOW STATUS -- re PERENNIAL
• IDENTIFIED AS PERENNIAL, BUT NOT
• WASTES EFFORT OF FIELD CREWS
• IDENTIFIED AS NON-PERENNIAL, BUT REALLY IS
  PERENNIAL
• MISSED RESOURCE
• INACCURATE ASSESSMENT

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EMAP-West Stream/river Length(km 95 CI)from
Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium
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EMAP-West Stream/river Length(km 95 CI)from
Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium
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EMAP-West Stream/river Length(km 95 CI)from
Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
QUESTIONS and/or COMMENTS ARE WELCOME
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FUNDING SOURCE

• ALL OF THE WORK REPORTED HERE TODAY was
  developed under the STAR Research Assistance
  Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S.
  Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado
  State University, or CR-829096 awarded to Oregon
  State University.  These presentations have not
  been formally reviewed by EPA.  The views
  expressed here are solely those of authors and
  the respective Programs. EPA does not endorse any
  products or commercial services mentioned in
  these presentations.

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THIS TALK

• STARMAP
• OBJECTIVES AND VISION
• PROJECTS
• COORDINATION
• A CROSS-PROJECT THRUST
• DEVELOP MODELS METHODS TO SUPPORT
• STATE TRIBAL USE OF PROBABILITY-BASED SITE
  SELECTION

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STARMAPS VISIONCONTINUED

• SUCH RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES WILL BECOME
  PROBLEMS ATTACKED BY
• IN ORDER OF COMPLEXITY
• MASTERS STUDENTS
• DOCTORAL STUDENTS
• POST-DOCTORAL FELLOWS
• AFFILIATED FACULTY SUPERVISORS

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STARMAPS VISIONCONTINUED - 2

• THE IDENTIFICATION OF THOSE QUESTIONS REQUIRES
• A STRONG WORKING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
• THE STATISTICIAN AND
• THE (SUBJECT MATTER) SCIENTIST
• STARMAP WILL FOSTER SUCH RELATIONSHIPS

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STARMAPS FUNDING ALLOCATION(ALL 12-MONTH BASIS)

• DIRECTOR - 0.60 FTE
• FACULTY - 0.75 FTE
• GRADUATE STUDENTS - 3 FTE
• POST DOCTORAL FELLOWS - 2 FTE
• STAFF 1.00 FTE - 2 YEARS, ONLY
• AMPLE FUNDS FOR COLLABORATION PROFESSIONAL
  TRAVEL
• SUBCONTRACTORS ( 185K 120K)

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COORDINATION

• MAJOR RESPONSIBILITY OF BOTH PROGRAM DIRECTORS
• CSU/OSU - EACH DIRECTOR IS FUNDED ON THE OTHERS
  ADMIN BUDGET
• INTERCHANGE VISITS
• EX STEVENS GITELMAN AT CSU IN JANUARY
• THESE JOINT CONFERENCES
• FREQUENT E-MAILS PHONE TALKS
• DIRECTORS HAVE VISITED SUBCONTRACTORS

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COORDINATION - AT CSU

• FREQUENT COMMUNICATION AMONG ALL PIS
• SEVERAL JOINT PLANNING MEETINGS LAST FALL
• SEMINAR LAST SPRING
• BACK AND FORTH WITH LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY
• INTERACTION WITH AQUATIC BIOLOGISTS
• POFF BLEDSOE AT CSU
• STAR MEETING IN DENVER NEXT WEEK

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COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSU

• COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES
• ESTUARINE GREAT LAKES INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT
  (EaGLes)
• ATTEND ALL HANDS MEETINGS
• PRESENT INFORMATION ABOUT OUR PROGRAMS
• EMAP - PERSONAL CONTACT
• SOURCE OF NEW PROBLEMS
• EX ACID RAIN REPORT TO CONGRESS - TREND AT
  PROBABILITY HAND-PICKED SITES
• OPPORTUNITIES FOR PROJECTS 1 2

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COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES
- SO WHAT

• FOR USE AREA IS IMPORTANT
• RECREATION
• REARING HABITAT - SHRIMP TO GEESE
• DOMESTIC INDUSTRIAL WATER USERS - EVEN
  VOLUME
• FOR PRESERVATION OF BIOLOGICAL
  DIVERSITY NUMBERS ARE VERY IMPORTANT

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COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES
- SO WHAT II

• PROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING HAS TO BALANCE NUMBER
  AGAINST SIZE
• REGARDLESS OF WATER BODY TYPE
• THIS PRECLUDES SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING
• CONSEQUENCE VARIABLE PROBABILITY/VARIABLE
  DENSITY SAMPLING HAS TO BE USED

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PREREQUISITE FOR ACCURATE SITE SELECTION

• AN ACCURATE FRAME
• SPATIALLY (REGIONAL) CONSISTENCY
• CRITICAL FOR CREDIBILITY AMONG WATER RESOURCE
  MANAGERS
• THE NEEDGOOD PREDICTORS OF
• WATER BODY SIZE
• PERENNIAL STATUS

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PREDICTION OF WATERBODY SIZE

• INITIAL EFFORT - STREAMS - MAHA
• OVERCOMES LIMITATIONS OF
• STRAHLER ORDER
• REGIONAL INCONSISTENCIES DUE TO VARIABLE
  DENSITY OF BLUE LINES ON USGS MAPS (SEE MAP ON
  THE WALL)
• INITIAL EFFORT GET WATERSHED
• AREA
• PREDICTOR CHARACTERISTICS
• GAUGED FLOW (PERHAPS ONLY BASE FLOW)

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PREDICTION OF PERENNIAL STATUS

• IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE DATA
• EMAP WESTERN PILOT STUDY
• SURVEY OF TRACES LABELED NON-PERENNIAL
• 100 PER WESTERN STATE DATA NOW AT CSU
• STARMAP NOW COMPILING ASSOCIATED LANDSCAPE
  INFORMATION
• SITE EVALUATION FROM SITES SELECTED ON TRACES
  LABELED PERENNIAL
• ON GOING WORK IN EMAP-WEST

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PREDICTION OF PERENNIAL STATUSOTHER POTENTIAL
DATA SOURCES

• MAIA - ORIGINAL SAMPLING INCLUDED ALL TRACES
• REGARDLESS OF PERENNIAL CLASS
• OTHER SURVEYS
• REGION 7
• VARIOUS STATES
• OTHER SURVEYS POSSIBLE IF METHODOLOGY WORKS

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EXPECTED OUTPUTS

• MODELS TO INCORPORATE INTO SITE SELECTION
  PROGRAMS
• MORE GENERALLY, STATISTICAL METHODS TO SUPPORT
  THOSE MODELS
• A RANGE OF GIS TOOLS USEFUL FOR AQUATIC
  MONITORING
• CONTINUED

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EXPECTED OUTPUTS

• ...
• AN EXPERIENCE BASE
• FUTURE GENERATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS
• ORIENTED TOWARD AQUATIC SCIENCES

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QUESTIONS ARE WELCOME
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NEXT SPEAKER

• JENNIFER HOETING
• LEADER OF PROJECT 1
• COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA SETS

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COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES

• INFORMATION PROVIDED APPLIES TO ALL LAKES IN THE
  LOWER 48
• A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OCCURS IN ALL PARTS OF
  THE US
• OTHER KINDS OF WATER BODIES
• SAME KIND OF PATTERN
• STREAMS RIVERS
• WETLANDS
• ESTUARIES