Semi-empirical estimation of the climate sensitivity

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Semi-empirical estimation of the climate
sensitivity

• Torben Schmith
• DMI

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Strålingsbudget
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Global Climate Modelling
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Earth System Modelling
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2xCO2 klimascenario
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Feedbacks (selection)

• Boltzmann feedback (-)
• Water vapour feedback ()
• Ice-albedo feedback (-)
• Cloud feedback (?)

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Bestemmelse af klimasensitivitet

• IPCC 2.1-4.4 K (for 2xCO2)
• Global Climate Model studies
• Paleo-studies (LGM, MCM)
• Instrumental data (few studies only)

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Energibalancemodel
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Myhre et al. data
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Myhre et al. data
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ECHO-G
2.6 K (Roeckner et al. (1999)
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• Cointegrated VAR approach
• Model identification
• Model estimation