Canada

1
Canadas Energy FutureWhat Role for Wind Power?

• Jim Prall
• Systems Programmer
• The Edward S. Rogers Sr.. Dept. Of Electrical and
  Computer Engineering
• University of Toronto
• jim.prall_at_utoronto.ca
• http//www.eecg.utoronto.ca/prall
• part-time student of climatology (etc.)

2
The Wind Power Industry

• Wind power the fastest growing sector
• As high as 30 per year growth
• Already a mature industry worldwide
• Dozens of major manufacturers
• Consolidation under way
• Mature designs now in mass production
• Wind power prices already competitive in many
  markets, getting closer elsewhere

3
Wind Power Worldwide

• 2003 Rated capacity, MW

Germany 14609
Spain 6202
Denmark 3110
Netherlands 912
Italy 904
United Kingdom 649
Austria 415
Sweden 399
Greece 375
Portugal 299
France 239
Ireland 186
Denmark supplying 18 of national demand from
wind!
USA 4685
Canada 322
4
Wind Power in Ontario
Operator Location Date in Service Equipment rated kW Status
Ontario Hydro Tiverton 1995/10 1x Tacke TW-600 CWM (600 kW) 600 Active
O.P.G. Pickering 2001/10 1x Vestas V80 (1,800 kW) 1,800 Active
Private Port Albert 2001/12 1x Vestas V47 (660 kW) 660 Active
Huron Wind Kincardine 2002/11 5x Vestas V80 9,000 Active
Sky Generation Ferndale 2002/11 1x Vestas V80 1,800 Active
Source http//www.canwea.ca/CanadianProduction.ht
ml
5
Wind Power in Canada

• Canada has decent wind resources
• Yet wind industry not as far along here
• Why not?
• Cheap power
• fossil fuels historically subsidized
• Limited political support so far
• Provincial utilities slow to embrace wind
• Hydro nuclear power well developed
• Both avoid air quality CO2 concerns
• This may mean less public pressure for wind
• Lenders unfamiliar with wind charge more

6
Phasing Out Coal

• Smog KILLS thousandsin Canada each year
• http//www.hc-sc.gc.ca/pphb-dgspsp/publicat/rdc-mr
  c01/pdf/rdc0901e.pdf
• http//eastern.sierraclub.ca/campaign_coal_fired_p
  ower_is_killing_us.shtml
• http//www.oma.org/phealth/report/airq001.pdf

7
Phasing Out Coal

• Smog kills almost 2000 each year
• Coal power plants a big problem
• More prevalent in U.S. than Canada
• Coal reliance by Province
• Alberta 81
• Saskatchewan 69
• Nova Scotia 80
• New Brunswick 35
• Ontario 16 lt- but out of 22 GW peak load!
• Manitoba 1

8
How Much Wind Rated Capacity vs. Yield

• rated or nameplate capacity vs. working output
  capacity factor (CF)
• Depends on technology and application
• For wind power this is a vital statistic!
• In better wind sites, wind turbine yields can run
  about 35 CF. So cant match 1 MW of wind to 1
  MW of other types.

9
Price of Power Today

• Ontario example retail price per kWh
• Generation 4.3
• To be raised to 4.7 (5.5 after the first 750
  kWh/mo.)
• Transmission 1.1
• Distribution 0.7 1.1
• Varies with local hydro distribution co.
• System operation regulation 0.6
• Stranded nuclear debt charge 0.7
• Total 7.3 to 7.7 /kWh
• Will become 7.7 to 8.1 /kWh (8.5 8.9 in 2nd
  block)

10
How Much Wind Resource Is Out There?

• Wind Resource Assessments
• National
• Provincial
• Local
• Software modeling is pivotal
• a good place to apply computer skills
• relies on climatology

11
How Much of the Wind Can Be Exploited?

• Cost-effectiveness
• Levelized cost overall cost / lifetime yield
• Cost of borrowing looms large
• Site ownership / availability
• Siting acceptability permits
• Public concern with
• sight
• noise
• perceived dangers
• Hooking into the power grid
• Proximity to Transmission
• Proximity to Loads

12
Searching for the Best WindWind Prospecting

• What Makes for Better Winds?

13
Wind Varies with Height

• The geostrophic or free wind is strong
• average 25 m/s
• But the speed at the surface is zero
• The profile of wind with height depends on
  surface roughness
• Low-level turbulence leads to problems

http//www.blwtl.uwo.ca/climate/climate2.htm
14
To Get at the Best Winds...

• Build taller towers?
• but this adds cost
• and there are practical limits to height
• the public and the aviation industry may object
• Mountains?
• Tops of tall buildings?

15
Getting at Good Winds

• In the end, you need to go to the best locations
  flat areas
• low surface roughness
• long flat fetch upwind of your site
• least turbulence as well
• Open water
• Prairies farm country
• Tundra

16
Mapping Canadas Winds

• Canadian Wind Atlas
• www.cmc.ec.gc.ca/rpn/modcom/eole/CanadianAtlas.ht
  ml

17
Compare the Canadian model to this U.S.
Model... Canadian model dismisses mountains!
18
Canadian Wind Mapping

• Canada's wind mapping not complete
• National map stalled
• Completed only coarse map (25km resolution)
• Authors advise the offshore model is unreliable!
• Fails to represent mountainous terrain traits
• Only 4 smaller areas modeled to Level 1 (5km)
• No new data posted in the past year
• Provinces working independently on mapping
• BC completed
• http//www.bchydro.com/rx_files/environment/e
  nvironment1839.pdf
• P.E.I.
• http//pei.cbc.ca/regional/servlet/View?filenamep
  e_windhydrogen20040114
• Nunavut
• Newfoundland

19
Canadian Wind Hot-Spots on Land

• Good sites near load
• Southern Alberta
• Prairies
• Gulf of St. Lawrence coasts
• (Hydro Quebecs Le Nordais)
• Locally in Maritimes
• (PEIs North Cape)
• PEI already 5 from Wind
• Aiming for much more
• Trial hydrogen village
• S.W. Ontario
• Ocean coasts

20
Canadian Wind Hot-Spots on Land

• Many of the best wind sites are remote
• Labrador
• N. Quebec
• Ontario North Shore
• James Bay / Hudsons Bay

21
Canadian Wind Hot-Spots Off-Shore

• Ocean coasts
• most extreme conditions for siting
• Hudson's Bay
• Gulf of St. Lawrence
• Bay of Fundy
• Great Lakes
• Tideless
• less swell
• close to load!

22
Canada's Wind Resource

• Seasonal variations
• winter peak - historically
• summer peak - increasing
• Wind geography large-scale wind patterns
  surface roughness, "fetch"
• Best winds not always near load centres.
• Raises the need to weigh transmission cost vs.
  yield.

23
Thank You!
24
Wind Generation Traits

• Wind resource varies (exogenous).
• Wind turbines produce no power at very low wind
  speeds (below cut-in speed) and run well below
  rated capacity at low-modest wind speeds.
• Here is a typical power curve for a contemporary
  1MW unit

Source http//www.blwtl.uwo.ca/climate/climate2.h
tm
25
Wind Generation Traits, 2

• Wind patterns frequency of occurrence of
  different wind speeds
• Characterized by Weibull distribution
• Curve reflects specifics of a given site

Source http//www.blwtl.uwo.ca/climate/climate2.h
tm
26
Projecting Yield

• Combine Power Curve and sites wind frequencies
  to give projected annual total yield

50-100
0-50
100
0 -- overspeed cut-out
27
Integrating Wind in the Grid

• Network operators must incorporate wind power as
  a non-dispatchable resource.
• Wind forecasting software is a key area of
  development
• Allow network operators to make best use of wind
  output
• Incorporate forecast wind output into full
  network schedule
• Costing methods pay the wind operator for correct
  forecasts

28
Labrador Wind Farm
(figures in CDN millions) 1 turbines 400 2,000 8,000 16,000
peak capacity 2.5 MWp 1,000 5,000 20,000 40,000
turbine purchase price 2.99 mil.Cdn. C 1,197 C 5,984 C 23,935 C 47,869
foundation construction 0.12 mil.Cdn. C 144 C 718 C 2,872 C 5,744
extra installation costs (climate) 0.05 mil.Cdn. C 7 C 36 C 144 C 287
Fixed costs   C 50 C 50 C 50 C 50
total project completion cost   C 1,398 C 6,788 C 27,000 C 53,951
finance cost, 20 yrs_at_9.5 CRF 11.35 mil.Cdn. C 159 C 770 C 3,064 C 6,122
O M _at_ 2 of all capital 2 mil. Cdn. C 28 C 136 C 540 C 1,079
total annual cost of production mil. Cdn. C 187 C 906 C 3,604 C 7,201
annual yield on 700 Wm-2 site 10 gWh 4,000 20,000 80,000
annual yield on 650 Wm-2 site 9 gWh 144,000
Levelized cost before transmissn CAD/kWh 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
share of Cdn coal-fire generation 100,000 gWh 3.50 17.40 70 125
share of all Cdn. Demand 550,000 gWh 0.70 3.60 15 26