Sutton Trust Research: The First and Second Decades

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Sutton Trust Research The First and Second
Decades

• James Turner, Policy Director
• 23 September 2009

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Research

• Access to educational opportunity
• Over 30 studies mostly in HE, but also early
  years, schools and social mobility
• Tends to be quantitative
• Tends to focus on fair access portion of WP
  agenda (but not always)
• Concentration of opportunity and resulting waste
  of talent

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2004 Missing 3,000

• Based on HESA benchmarks
• 3,000 missing state students with grades to
  attend top-ranked universities but who dont end
  up there
• State school pupils need two grades higher to
  stand same chance of admission as independent
  school peers
• Similar story when you look at low SES groups and
  poorer neighbourhoods

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2007 Admissions by Individual School

• Analysis of 2002-06 UCAS admissions patterns for
  3,700 individual schools
• Dramatic concentration 100 elite schools made up
  third of Oxbridge admissions one sixth of
  admissions to Sutton 13 group
• Not down to A-level results alone top performing
  grammars and comprehensives under-represented

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2009 Applications, offers and acceptances at
selective courses

• Pupils at top independent schools make twice as
  many applications to leading universities as
  peers from top comprehensives (and FE is
  particular issue)
• If admissions patterns were the same for
  similarly qualified state and independent school
  students, over 4,500 extra state school students
  could enter top 500 university courses
• No significant differences in offer rates
  (although again, and FE dimension)

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2008 Wasted Talent

• Combined NPD and HESA database
• 60,000 high performing state pupils do not go on
  to higher education
• When prior achievement taken into account,
  virtually no gap between FSM and non-FSM children
  poorer students who reach A-levels are as
  likely to go on to higher education as their
  better off peers
• But still an access problem - FSM pupils less
  likely to enter ST13

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Our picture

• Huge inequalities in access
• Attainment is key driver, both pre and post GCSE
• Raising school standards intractable
• The other As Applications, Advice and
  Aspirations are important too
• What else needs to be done? Contextual
  allowances? Pre-GCSE, sustained interventions?
  Talent-spotting?

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University chances in schools with different
characteristics

• Building on Wasted Talent report
• Quantify the school effect
• Same pupil different school context
• Where do, say, high-achieving FSM, pupils do well
  and not so well in accessing universities?
• Help to target work and inform admissions
  allowances

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STEP scheme

• International review of innovative schemes showed
  students do just as well
• A percent scheme for the UK, targeting top
  students in disadvantaged schools pre GCSE
• Contextual elements
• What progress do these students make against a
  control group?
• What entry allowances is it right to make? (very
  little evidence)

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Missing 3,000 explained

• Joint work with DBIS
• Tracking the motivations and decisions of
  university applicants with three As and three Bs
• Where do they end up?
• Rational decisions?
• How were choices made?

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• Happy to hear new research / project ideas
• James.Turner_at_suttontrust.com
• Lee.ElliotMajor_at_suttontrust.com