A Summary of the First Decadal Survey for Earth Sciences and Applications Michael J' Kavaya NASA Lan

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A Summary of the First Decadal Survey for Earth
Sciences and ApplicationsMichael J. KavayaNASA
Langley Research Centermichael.j.kavaya_at_nasa.gov
14th Coherent Laser Radar ConferenceSnowmass,
COJuly 8-13, 2007
This presentation consists primarily of material
taken from a report by the National Research
Council that has been released to the public in
Jan. 2007.
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What Was The NRC Committee Asked To Do?
By Who?
Sponsors NASA SMD, NOAA NESDIS, USGS Geography
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What Were the Criteria for Prioritization?
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Figures From Chapter 2 The Next Decade of Earth
Observations From Space
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Extreme Event Warning
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Human Health
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Weather Prediction
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No Tropospheric Winds for Climate Prediction???
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Air Quality
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Tropospheric Winds (Coherent Lidar) Not Included
in Figures

• Earthquake early warnings, 2.11
• Sea level rise prediction, 2.13
• Climate prediction, 2.14 (? winds, aerosols,
  clouds, CO2)
• Fresh water availability, 2.15 (? river
  discharge)
• Ecosystems services, 2.16 (? ocean
  eddies/currents, CO2)

(possibilities for coherent lidar)
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Some Decadal Survey Recommendations
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Some Decadal Survey Recommendations
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First mission in this section
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Mission Summary Quotes
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17 Missions (Pink lt900 M Green 300-600
M Blue lt300 M)
NRC SLIDE
NOAA
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NASA
NRC SLIDE
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NASA
NRC SLIDE

Cloud-independent, high temporal resolution,
lower accuracy SST to complement, not replace,
global operational high-accuracy SST
measurement
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Decadal Survey Mission Costs Battles

• The Decadal Survey included mission cost
  estimates, but
• They used input from mission advocates
• p. 2-19 Responses 111 to the RFI submitted
  to the panels were valuable for developing
  individual mission costs however, a uniform
  approach
• p. 2-19 In consultation with NASA Mission
  designers, a budget spreadsheet was developed
• Before publication, NASA commissioned mission
  design cost studies in anticipation (e.g.,
  GWOS)
• NASA responded However, when the decadal
  surveys, including the Earth science report,
  publish rough cost estimates for several missions
  that are obviously off the mark by a factor of
  two or more, we have a self-inflicted problem
  within the space community that affects the
  credibility of all. (Remarks by Michael D.
  Griffin Administrator National Aeronautics and
  Space Administration to the Goddard Space
  Symposium 20 March 2007)
• NRC responded to NASA Price differences from
  NASAs mission studies not necessarily mistakes
  but rather different missions

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NASA SMD Response to Decadal Survey

• On-going Activities
• Cost refinement through Concept Studies at NASA
  Centers (GSFC, JPL)
• Technical challenges, cost completeness
  (including science)
• Mission Workshops for CLARREO, SMAP, ICESAT2,
  DesDynI
• Spreadsheet Engineering to identify realistic
  budget/science scenarios
• NPOESS climate sensor remanifestation scenarios
• NASA-NOAA-OSTP study (early May)
• NRC workshop report (mid-July)
• Updated Earth Science Division Science Plan
  (July)
• Draft NASA roadmap to be completed in Fall, 2007
• NAC and NRC review

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Unfortunate US Gauntlet of Zero-Sum Bottlenecks

• USA
• Large amount of codified, nondiscretionary
  spending
• House Committee on Appropriations 1 of many
  Committees
• Commerce, Justice, and Science Subcommittee (6
  ), 1 of 12 SCs
• CJS SC NASA (28) DOC, DOJ, NSF, OSTP, 10
  others
• NASA Exploration, Space Ops., Science (32),
  Aeronautics
• SMD Astrophysics, Earth Sci. (25), Planetary
  Sci, Heliophysics
• Earth Sci. Systematic Missions (41), ESSP
  (9), 5 other categories

• The phrase its a zero-sum game is invoked at
  every level
• Zero-sum groupings are arbitrary

Selected Mission
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Back Up
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Who Did The Study?
National Academies National Academy of
Science (NAS) Division on Earth and Life
Sciences Division on Engineering and
Physical Sciences Space Studies
Board Committee on Earth Studies
Ad Hoc Committee on Earth Science and
Applications from Space A Community Assessment
and Strategy for the Future
20 members (18 at end) 2 chairs (Richard A.
Anthes, Berrien Moore III) Chairs of 7 study
panels 11 at large members (9 at end)
111 RFI Responses 17 Reviewers
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD LENNARD A. FISK, University
of Michigan, Chair A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed
Martin Corporation (retired), Vice Chair SPIRO K.
ANTIOCHOS, Naval Research Laboratory DANIEL N.
BAKER, University of Colorado STEVEN J. BATTEL,
Battel Engineering CHARLES L. BENNETT, Johns
Hopkins University JUDITH A. CURRY, Georgia
Institute of Technology JACK D. FARMER, Arizona
State University JACK D. FELLOWS, University
Corporation for Atmospheric Research JACQUELINE
N. HEWITT, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology TAMARA E. JERNIGAN, Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory KLAUS KEIL, University of
Hawaii BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New
Hampshire KENNETH H. NEALSON, University of
Southern California NORMAN P. NEUREITER, American
Association for the Advancement of
Science SUZANNE OPARIL, University of Alabama,
Birmingham JAMES PAWELCZYK, Pennsylvania State
University RONALD F. PROBSTEIN, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology HARVEY D. TANANBAUM,
Harvard-Smithsonian Astrophysical
Observatory RICHARD H. TRULY, National Renewable
Energy Laboratory (retired) JOSEPH F. VEVERKA,
Cornell University WARREN M. WASHINGTON, National
Center for Atmospheric Research GARY P. ZANK,
University of California, Riverside MARCIA S.
SMITH, Director
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Charge to Panels
NRC SLIDE

• Identify needs and opportunities for observations
  from space to advance Earth science and
  applications for the next decade and beyond
• Propose programs or missions to meet these needs
  and opportunities, in priority order
• Describe each proposed mission in terms of
• Contributions to science and applications
• How it meets prioritization criteria
• Benefits to society
• Technical aspects
• Schedule
• Costs
• 4. Briefly identify needs for obs that are needed
  to complement space-based obs
• 5. Identify essential other components
  (telemetry, data processing, management and
  stewardship

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Mapping Missions to Panels
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RECOMMENDATIONS
NRC SLIDE

• Technology development in support of missions
• NASA-invest in both mission-focused and
  cross-cutting technology development to decrease
  risk in missions and promote cost reduction
  across multiple missions
• NASA-create new Venture class of low cost
  (100-200M) missions to foster innovation and
  train future leaders
• NOAA-increase investment in research to operations

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PROGRAMMATIC DECISION STRATEGIES AND RULES

• Manage Technology Risk
• Sequence missions according to technological
  readiness and budget risk factors technological
  investments should be made across all recommended
  missions.
• If there are insufficient funds to execute the
  missions in the recommended timeframes, it is
  still important to make advances on the key
  technological hurdles.
• Establish technological readiness through
  documented technology demonstrations before
  mission development phase.

NRC SLIDE
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Mission Summary Listed Benefits of Wind Mission

• More accurate, more reliable, and longer-term
  weather forecasts
• Public safety
• Forecast of extreme weather events
• Public confidence in hurricane warnings
• Superior description of hurricane wind fields,
  which will result in substantial numbers of
  lives saved
• Improved forecasts of severe weather outbreaks,
  tornadic storms, floods, and coastal high-wind
  events
• Specifying the initial potential vorticity
• Improve our understanding of sources and sinks
  of constituents such as atmospheric water
• Advances in understanding of El Niño, monsoons,
  and the flow of tropical moisture to the U.S.
• Improve the depiction of atmospheric dynamics,
  transport of air pollution, and climate processes

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Decadal Survey Quotes - Winds
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Decadal Survey Quotes - Winds
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Decadal Survey Quotes
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Decadal Survey Quotes
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Decadal Survey Quotes
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Trends In Earth Observations From Space
NRC SLIDE
Number of Missions
Number of Instruments
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Need for Interdisciplinary Program
NRC SLIDE
Weather 4/5 Water 3/5
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Other Comments by Ed Browell and Art Charo

• Over 120 people involved
• RFI responses were primary source of information
• Table of missions is not ranked, but listed by
  cost
• Price differences from NASAs mission studies
  not necessarily mistakes but rather different
  missions
• A mission is not necessarily one launch
• ESSP has caused risk by producing proposals with
  TRLs too low
• Report recommends return to 2000 earth science
  funding levels
• No substantive changes will be made to report,
  only editorial
• There was pure ranking by science only within
  the panels, but not by the overall study