Kathryn Pearson Assistant Professor Department of Political Science

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Election 2008 What Happened, What to
Expect
Kathryn Pearson
Assistant Professor Department of
Political Science
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2008 Electoral College Map
Source http//www.nytimes.com/
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2004 Electoral College Map
Source http//www.nytimes.com/
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Red to Blue States

• Florida (27 Electoral Votes)
• Ohio (20)
• Virginia (13)
• Iowa (7)
• Colorado (9)
• New Mexico (5)
• Nevada (5)
• Indiana (11)
• North Carolina (15)
• 9 states switched from 04-08

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2008 by County
Source http//www.nytimes.com/
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The Presidential Vote

• 2008 Electoral College Vote
• 364-162
• (MO and 1 EC vote in NE undecided)
• 2008 Popular Vote
• Obama 53 - McCain 46
• (In 2004, President Bush had a 2.4 margin)

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Election Turnout
From http//elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm
2004 60.3 turnout 2008 62.5 turnout projected
(133.3 million votes)
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The Results Contextual Factors

• State of the Nation
• Economic Conditions War
• 75 think the country is going in the wrong
  direction
• 85 are worried about economic conditions
• Presidential Approval
• Historically unpopular President hurt McCain
• Partisan Identification of the Electorate
• 9 of 10 partisans voted for party candidate
• Party Identification advantages Democrats
• 39(D) - 32(R) 29(I)

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The Results Campaign Effects and Short Term
Forces

• Candidates Persona and Policy
• Fundraising
• Obama is the first general election candidate to
  reject public funding (84 million grant)
• Campaign Organization
• Message, Unity, GOTV
• Battleground States Expanded
• Vice Presidential Selection
• 60 said Palin was not qualified to be President
  if necessary, 16 of whom voted for McCain

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National Exit Polls 2008
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National Exit Polls 2004
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Issues --gt
lt-- Race
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U.S. Senate
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U.S. Senate

• Larger Democratic majority
• From 51 to 57 or more Democrats
• Fewer moderate GOP Senators
• A record 17 women
• 3 outcomes still not determined
• Alaska (leaning Republican)
• Georgia (runoff likely)
• Minnesota (recount)

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Polls Minnesota Senate
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Minnesota Senate Race

• Split Ticket Voting
• Obama wins 54 of state vote, McCain 44
• 74 of Obama supporters vote Franken
• 81 of McCain supporters vote Coleman
• Dean Barkley wins 15
• Incumbency Advantages for Coleman
• Record Spending (50 million)
• Negative Advertising Helps Barkley
• 60 think both attacked unfairly, 23 of those
  voted for Barkley

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U.S. House
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U.S. House

• Democrats gain around 20 seats
• Democrats gained 30 seats in 2006
• First time since the 1930s Democrats make big
  gains 2 cycles in a row
• Regional divide
• No House Republicans in New England remain
• Minnesota delegations partisanship unchanged
• Bachmann wins in the 6th
• Paulsen wins in the 3rd

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Meaning of Elections

• Policy Mandates?
• Assumes knowledgeable citizens
• Assumes clear and differing candidate positions
• I earned capital in this campaign, political
  capital, and I intend to spend it
• (President George W. Bush, 2 days after
  reelection in 04)
• Judgments of Performance?
• Retrospective Voting
• The Economy, War and Peace

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Challenges and Opportunities for President Obama

• Extraordinary Economic Challenges
• Require Quick and Skilled Action
• Fulfilling Campaign Promises Will be Challenging
• Foreign Policy and Energy Challenges
• Unified Democratic Control
• Easier to move White House Priorities
• High Expectations
• Senate Filibuster
• Requires working with Republicans
• Fewer moderates in the Senate
• Cross-Pressured Democrats

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Challenges and Opportunities for President Obama

• Unified Party Government
• No guarantee of success
• Democrats margins similar to 1993
• Learning from Clintons failures in 1993-1994
• Health care stalls, Democrats lose Congress in
  1994 elections
• But the political context differs from 1993-1994
• Obamas margin and coattails more significant
  than Clintons
• Party leaders are stronger today

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Congressional Parties are Stronger and More
Polarized

• Both parties have become more ideologically
  cohesive over the last 30 years
• Political changes in the South
• No longer a one party system
• Southern conservatives are now Republicans
  instead of conservative Democrats
• Institutional changes have given party leaders
  more power over committee chairs
• More safe, partisan districts
• Close margins fierce policy and electoral
  competition

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2008 by County
Source http//www.nytimes.com/