Comments, on 1819 May

1
Comments, on 18/19 May

• Hans von Storch
• Institute for Coastal Research
• GKSS, Germany

2
Comments

• Needs for ethics to avoid corruption or
  perception of such (closed shop)
• Insufficient linkage to WG I concepts
• Insufficient analysis of regional and local
  perspectives

3
Ethics

• IPCC is in some quarters perceived as closed
  shop.
• A significant aspect is that some key thinkers in
  the field ( key authors) are assessing their own
  work. Some of these are in the process for a very
  long time and have become dominant.
• There should be a set of rules, furthering the
  independence of the scientists assessing the
  available knowledge claims from those publishing
  these claims.

4
Ethics

• We should acknowledge the fact that disturbing
  assessments by the IPCC are in the social
  interest of the assessers.
• Being together for an extended time, aligning
  concepts and paradigms may allow the social
  process science assessment to fail.
• Read Ludwik Fleck Genesis and Development of a
  Scientific Fact (University of Chicago Press,1979)

5
WG-I concepts

• Regional specification required but difficult
  (Coastal problems in the UK different from those
  in Panama).
• Historical dimension needed gt natural
  variability. Hazards are not stationary (long
  term memory phenomena). Vulnerability and
  adaptive capacity are partially socially
  determined and therefore sometimes ephemeral.
  History of perceptions, social guardrails needed.
• Detection and attribution so far not done for
  spatially disaggregated impact relevant
  variables. Analysis of what did not change is
  needed.

6
Regional and local perspectives

• Global integration and top-down assessments
  needed for the overall moral political process
  of pushing for mitigation of emissions and
  political agreements.
• Regional specific statements helpful to reduce
  contemporary regional vulnerability as well as
  likely increased future regional vulnerability.
• Regional assessment needs regionally specific
  scenarios of social, economic, technological
  change, which are not merely downscaled versions
  of SRES.
• Historical analyses of other cases of
  regulations, responses and perceptions of pending
  environmental threat (e.g. Swiss forestry law, US
  immigration law phasing-out of gasoline lead).

7
Major challenge for IPCC

• More self reflection.
• Less Bushois Righteousness.