Title: Feb TexMex Dust Storm Analysis
1Feb TexMex Dust Storm Analysis
2Satellite
250m image
3- The National Polar-orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)
represents this countrys next generation of
polar-orbiting environmental satellite. - These projects involve improved tactical
communications - direct broadcast field
terminals, data mining techniques for large
heterogeneous data bases, data retrieval
algorithm development, data assimilation for
nowcasting applications, combat simulations
quantifying the value of data to the manager
exploring other remote sensing technologies to
augment NPOESS and. - NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) to launch in
2006, will provide a bridge from NASAs EOS
research missions (Terra, Aqua, and Aura) to the
operational NPOESS mission in the years that
follow. - Americas future (2012 period) geostationary
satellite series, GOES-R, is expected to be a
geostationary constellation whose major
meteorological observing instruments are an
Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) with up to 16
channels, and a Hyperspectral Environmental Suite
(HES) that is comprised of a hyperspectral imager
operating in the 0.4 to 1 micron range (HES-I)
and an atmospheric sounder operating across the
4-15 micron portion of the spectrum (HES-II).
That instrument is the GOES-R HES-I with a
spatial resolution on the order of 100 to 150
meters operating at 10 nanometer spectral
resolution across the 0.4 to 1.0 micron range
across a domain of 100x100 kilometers and capable
of being refreshed at 5 to 10 times per minute - This report documents a significant dust storm
outbreak that occurred on 3 March 2003 over the
Gulf of Oman. The case study demonstrates the
effective synergy of the AOD product together
with various other satellite-derived products on
the NRL Satellite Focus page and the Navy Aerosol
Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) to
characterize visibility conditions over data
sparse/data denied regions. Nearby synoptic
surface reports serve as validation to the
satellite and model-derived products presented
herein. This report also describes the
limitations and shortcomings of the current AOD
product arising from sun glint, clouds and water
turbidity contamination factors.
4- Presently, the Naval Research Laboratorys global
and regional dust models (NAAPS and COAMPSTM
Dust) use the USGS land use characteristic
dataset to determine dust emission areas. Since
its compilation a decade ago, two major
weaknesses in the USGS land use characteristic
dataset have become apparent. 1. The land uses
describing arid and semi-arid regions in Asia and
Southwest Asia have quickly become outdated. To
update and to improve the USGS dataset, we are
using GIS-like software named ENVI (Environment
for Visualizing Images), 1 km National
Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) global
topographical data, satellite imagery, maps,
atlases, and recently released governmental
reports. - The science behind the Air Force Weather Agencys
(AFWA) Dust Transport Application (DTA) is
discussed and the results of an extensive
verification of DTA over Africa, central and
southwest Asia are presented. DTA ingests AFWA
MM5 45km resolution surface wind data, which is
used to calculate the surface dust flux based on
wind threshold velocity. There are differing
threshold velocities based upon the dust
particles diameter, air and particle density,
and soil moisture. DTA also accounts for the
vertical transport of dust through the
calculation of horizontal divergence and a second
parameter that calculates vertical diffusion. In
addition, DTA uses a dust source region database
that was developed on the basis of land use,
topography, the use of Advanced Very High
Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and Total Ozone
Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data. - A dust aerosol model has been developed and fully
embedded in the Navys COAMPSTM as an on-line
module of the prediction system, using the exact
meteorological fields at each time step and each
grid point of all nests. COAMPSTM is being
applied to the experimental dust forecasts for
Southwest Asia including Iraq and Persian Gulf in
Spring 2003, the season of high frequency of
sandstorms in the region. The model is run twice
a day at 00Z and 12Z to produce 3-day forecasts
at 9, 27 and 81-km grid resolutions.
5- SATELLITE FOCUS A DYNAMIC, NEAR REAL-TIME
SATELLITE RESOURCE FOR THE DoD. (NRL) in
Monterey accelerated the development and
transition to operations of a new web-based
satellite imagery interface. The philosophy of
the Satellite Focus web page is sector-centric
a wide variety of value-added products populate
the website in near real-time over co-registered
domains. This provides one stop shopping for the
analyst, thereby mitigating the often-burdensome
task of searching for necessary information
across a myriad of independent resources of
variable coverage, capability, quality, and
timeliness. A completely dynamic tool, the
interface evolves with the introduction of new
sectors and products. Intelligent architecture
and site navigation, customizable animation,
image mosaics, satellite overpass prediction and
on-line product tutorials support cutting-edge
satellite multi-spectral and model-fusion
products developed by NRL Satellite
Meteorological Applications Section scientists
using a full complement of polar/geostationary
satellites and NWP fields. Highlighted among
these products are the high-resolution
multi-spectral applications available from the
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
(MODIS), a telemetry received in near real-time
via special arrangement between NOAA, NASA, and
DoD agencies in direct support of the War on
Terrorism. A mirror website transitioned to
Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography
Center has made Satellite Focus available upon
Secure Internet bandwidth and thereby more
readily accessible to assets in theater.
Constructive feedback from a wide variety of
operational users during OEF and OIF has helped
to further develop and optimize this resource.
Constructive feedback from a wide variety of
operational users during OEF and OIF has helped
to further develop and optimize this resource. -
- The FNMOC Dust Discussion. Dust event forecasting
is an emerging, but still immature science. With
the onset of war in Iraq, forecasting dust has
become an important issue, and forecasters in
theater have been doing their best to forecast
dust effects on operations for pilots, ground
forces, and ships at sea. As forces move further
inland, dust events present both a problem and an
opportunity for effective deployment of U.S.
forces. Toward this end, FNMOC has taken a
two-pronged approach by 1) upgrading its array of
satellite and model dust products, and 2)
reorganizing its operational watch team to focus
on dust analysis and forecasting. FNMOC began to
make use of the NRL/MRY Aerosol Group's Navy
Atmospheric Aerosol Prediction System (NAAPS)
products prior to formal transition to
operations. At NRL, the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere
Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) was enhanced
to provide aerosol prediction for Southwest Asia,
and preliminary model aerosol output from COAMPS
was made available for evaluation starting in
March of 2003 - An important aspect of FNMOCs new strategy is to
increase situational awareness and interaction
with forward deployed forecasters who directly
support the warfighter. To accomplish this
objective, the Operations Department watch
standers duties were restructured to include a
daily analysis of the dust products available on
the Satellite Focus and NAAPS Web pages. This
daily analysis was termed the Dust Discussion.
The procedures for this analysis and the content
of the Dust Discussion were developed by a group
of watch standers, scientists and forecasters
from FNMOC and NRL, who meet on a weekly basis to
provide guidance, review results, and modify
procedures or content as necessary. The watch
standers have undergone training to learn how to
forecast dust events. Training has included
analysis of satellite imagery, basic dust storm
physics, forecasting tips, and resource
utilization topics.
6- FIRES Unlike aerosol species such as dust and
smoke whos source functions can be determined
through dynamical fields, most fires are
anthropogenic in nature and hence emissions vary
considerably from day to day. To support field
operations that rely on EO systems, propagation
models need to be able to quickly adapt to new
fires. The smoke component of the Navy Aerosol
Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) utilizes
real time fire detection algorithms from
geostationary satellites with the NOAA/NESDIS
Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (ABBA) and
from MODIS with the University of Maryland
RapidFire and NRL fire hotspot algorithms. We
also discuss and contrast the physical optical
properties of biomass and oil fire smokes and how
they relate to light extinction in visible and IR
wavelengths. - 2D-4D grid data distribution system and its use
in support of tactical operations. The data have
been used in secondary modeling systems (surf, EM
propagation, and chemical dispersion forecasts),
planning tools for flight and landing missions
(JMPS, Brandes Associates), and for display on a
common operational desktop (WebCOP/XiS, Polexis).
We store NOGAPS, COAMPS, WW3, SWAN and other
model grids. Other parts of Metcast store derived
data (ship routes, surf forecasts). The built-in
fine-grained access control allows the system to
be used for coalition support and joint
operations. - The system incorporates the Grid DataBlade
(Barrodale Computing Services) stores tiles of
scalar and vector grids arranged in time and the
vertical dimension. The DataBlade can compute a
subgrid, select a vertical post, re-project and
interpolate in any dimension. Because these
computations are performed within the database
engine, they are highly efficient. A flexible
query system lets the user select a 1D-4D
(sub)grid based on a model, geographical region,
valid time and other criteria. The user can also
request a desired interpolation mode or
remapping, e.g. from a Lambert-Conformal
projection to spherical coordinates. The data
distribution system is reflective and can
describe, in various levels of detail, which
gridded data are potentially or currently
available.
7Project Goal and Objective
- The goal of the project is to provide technical
support to EPA RPOs on - Estimation of Natural Visibility Conditions over
the US - Tasks and Approach
- Conceptual Evaluation of Natural PM and
Visibility Conditions - Establish Virtual Workgroup with representatives
from EPA, RPOs, scientific community - Quantitative Estimation of Recent Regional
Natural Contribution Statistics - Conduct Data Analysis for estimating natural
contributions (1995, surf. and satellite obs) - Real-Time Estimation of Natural Aerosols and
Visibility - Implement a Web-based Tool for routine real-time
estimation of natural aerosols/visibility
8Task 1 Conceptual Evaluation of Natural PM and
Visibility Conditions
- Establishing the main natural source types, e.g.
- Windblown dust (local and distant)
- Biomass smoke (forest, grass and other
uncontrolled fires, local and distant) - Biogenic emissions (trees, marshes, oceans)
- Sea salt
- Physico-chemical properties of natural aerosols
- Size distribution
- Chemical composition
- Optical properties
- Evaluate suitable metrics for statistically
describing natural conditions - Relevant aerosol components (e.g. SO4, NO3, OC,
EC, Dust) - Spatial scales and resolution of natural
events/conditions - Temporal scales and resolution of natural
events/conditions
9Background
- Atmospheric aerosol system has three extra
dimensions (red), compared to gases (blue) - Spatial dimensions (X, Y, Z)
- Temporal Dimensions (T)
- Particle size (D)
- Particle Composition ( C )
- Particle Shape (S)
- Bad news The mere characterization of the 7D
aerosol system is a challenge - Spatially dense network -X, Y, Z(??)
- Continuous monitoring (T)
- Size segregated sampling (D)
- Speciated analysis ( C )
- Shape (??)
- Good news The aerosol system is self-describing.
- Once the aerosol is characterized (Speciated
monitoring) and multidimensional aerosol data are
organized, (see RPO VIEWS effort), unique
opportunities exists for extracting information
about the aerosol system (sources,
transformations) from the data directly. - Analysts challenge Deciphering the handwriting
contained in the data - Chemical fingerprinting/source apportionment
10Aerosols Many Dimensions
- Compared to gases (X, Y, Z, T), the aerosol
system has four extra dimensions(D, C, F, M). - Spatial dimensions X, Y Satellites, dense
networks - Height Z Lidar, soundings
- Time T Continuous monitoring
- Particle size D Size-segregated sampling
- Particle Composition C Speciated analysis
- Particle Shape/Form F Microscopy
- Ext/Internal Mixture M Microscopy
- Bad NewsThe mere characterization requires many
tools. - Some tools sample a small subset of the xDim
aerosol data space - These need extrapolation, e.g. single particle
analysis - Other tools get integral measures of several
dimensions - These require de-convolution of the integral,
e.g. satellite sensors
Satellite-Integral
11Aerosols Opportunity and Challenge
- Good news The aerosol system is self-describing.
- Once the aerosol is characterized
(size-composition, shape) and - Spatio-temporal pattern are established,
- gt The aerosol system describes much of its
history through the properties and pattern, e.g
source type (dust, smoke, haze), formation
mechanisms, atmospheric interactions. and
transformations. - The aerosol dimensions (D, C, F, M) are most
useful for establishing the sources and effects,
including some of the processes. - The Source of can be considered an additional,
derived aerosol dimension. - Analysts challenge Deciphering the handwriting
contained in the data - Chemical fingerprinting/source apportionment
- Meteorological transport analysis
- Multidimensional data extrapolation,
de-convolution and fusion
12Local, Sahara and Gobi Dust over N. America
- The dust over N. America originates from local
sources as well as from the Sahara and Gobi
Deserts - Each dust source region has distinct chemical
signature in the crustal elements.
13Seasonal and Secular Trends of Sahara Dust over
the US
- Seasonally, dust peaks sharply in July when the
Sahara plume swings into the Caribbean.
Regional Sahara Dust events occur several times
each summer
14Sahara Dust Passage over the EUS (Poirot,
2003)Dirty dust composition based on Positive
Matrix Factorization, PMF
- At Brigantine, NJ, dust composition is enriched
by SO4 (30 dirty dust mass) and NO3 (8)
Dirty dust and salt composition
15Direction of Dust Origin at 5 IMPROVE Sites
High dust concentration at 5 sites indicate
the same airmass pathway from the tropical
Atlantic
Ad hoc Data Processing Value Chain
16The Influence of Emissions, Dilution and
Transformations
- The PM concentration, C, at any given location
and time is determined by the combined
interaction of emissions, E, atmospheric
dilution, D, and chemical transformation and
removal, T, processes - C f (E, D, T)
- Each of the three processes has its own pattern
at secular, yearly, weekly, synoptic, diurnal and
micro time scales. - The yearly, weekly and the diurnal scales are
periodic
17(No Transcript)
18Seasonal Pattern of PM2.5
- The seasonal cycle results from changes in PM
background levels, emissions, atmospheric
dilution, and chemical reaction, formation, and
removal processes. - Examining the seasonal cycles of PM2.5 mass and
its elemental constituents can provide insights
into these causal factors. - The season with the highest concentrations is a
good candidate for PM2.5 control actions.
Key reference CAPITA
19Seasonal PM2.5 During 1988
- At Washington DC and Philadelphia, (Mid-Atlantic)
the PM2.5 concentrations are 60 higher in summer
than in winter. - In the rural Appalachians, the summer PM2.5
concentrations are a factor of three higher than
during the winter.
- At urban Southwestern sites, PM2.5 concentrations
in the winter are 50 higher than in the summer. - At rural Southwestern sites, PM2.5 concentrations
are 50 higher during June than January.
Key reference CAPITA
20Regional Haze Goal Attain natural conditions by
2064
21Pattern of Fires over N. America
- The number of ATSR satellite-observed fires peaks
in warm season - Fire onset and smoke amount is unpredictable
Fire Pixel Count Western US
North America
22Asian Dust Cloud over N. America
Asian Dust
100 mg/m3
Hourly PM10
On April 27, the dust cloud arrived in North
America. Regional average PM10 concentrations
increased to 65 mg/m3 In Washington State, PM10
concentrations exceeded 100 mg/m3
23Origin of Fine Dust Events over the US
Gobi dust in spring Sahara in summer
Fine dust events over the US are mainly from
intercontinental transport
24Daily Average Concentration over the US
Sulfate is seasonal with noise Noise is by
synoptic weather
VIEWS Aerosol Chemistry Database
- Dust is seasonal with noise
- Random short spikes added
25Sahara and Local Dust Apportionment Annual and
July
The Sahara and Local dust was apportioned based
on their respective source profiles.
- The maximum annual Sahara dust contribution is
about 1 mg.m3 - In Florida, the local and Sahara dust
contributions are about equal but at Big Bend,
the Sahara contribution is lt 25.
- In July the Sahara dust contributions are 4-8
mg.m3 - Throughout the Southeast, the Sahara dust exceeds
the local source contributions by w wide margin
(factor of 2-4)
26Supporting Evidence Transport Analysis
Satellite data (e.g. SeaWiFS) show Sahara Dust
reaching Gulf of Mexico and entering the
continent.
The air masses arrive to Big Bend, TX form the
east (July) and from the west (April)
27Seasonal Fine Aerosol Composition, E. US
Smoky Mtn
Upper Buffalo
Everglades, FL
Big Bend, TX
28Sahara PM10 Events over Eastern US
July 5, 1992
Much previous work by Prospero, Cahill, Malm,
Scanning the AIRS PM10 and IMPROVE chemical
databases several regional-scale PM10 episodes
over the Gulf Coast (gt 80 ug/m3) that can be
attributed to Sahara.
June 30, 1993
June 21 1997
- The highest July, Eastern US, 90th percentile
PM10 occurs over the Gulf Coast ( gt 80 ug/m3) - Sahara dust is the dominant contributor to peak
July PM10 levels.
29May 9, 1998 A Really Bad Aerosol Day for N.
America
Asian Smoke
Canada Smoke
- What kind of neighborhood is this anyway?
C. American Smoke
30Seasonal PM2.5 Dependence on Elevation in
Appalachian Mountains
Monitor Locations and topography
- During August, the PM2.5 concentrations are
independent of elevation to at least 1200 m.
Above 1200 m, PM2.5 concentrations decrease. - During January, PM2.5 concentrations decrease
between sites at 300 and 800 m by about 50 .
PM2.5 concentrations are approximately constant
from 800 m to 1200 m and decrease another 50
from 1200 to 1700 m.
Key reference
31Local, Sahara and Gobi Dust over N. America
- The dust over N. America originates from local
sources as well as from the Sahara and Gobi
Deserts - Each dust source region has distinct chemical
signature in the crustal elements.
32Attribution of Fine Dust (lt2.5mm) Local and Sahara
The two dust peeks at Big Bend have different
Al/Si ratios During the year, Al/Si 0.4 In
July, Al/Si reaches 0.55, closer to the Al/Si of
the Sahara dust (0.65-0.7) The spring peak is
identified as as Local Dust, while the July
peak is dominated by Sahara dust.
- In Florida, virtually all the Fine Particle Dust
appears to originate from Sahara throughout the
year - At other sites over the Southeast, Sahara
dominates in July - The Spring and Fall dust is evidently of local
origin
33Supporting Evidence Aerosol Pattern and
Transport Analysis
There are large seasonal differences in the
directions that air masses arriving in Big Bend,
TX have taken. During winter and into spring,
they come from the west and the northwest,while
during the summer, they come mainly from the east.
- In July (1998) elevated levels of absorbing
aerosol (Sahara Dust) reaches the Gulf of Mexico
and evidently, enters the continent . - High TOMS dust levels are seen along the
US-Mexican borders, reaching New Mexico. Higher
levels also cover the Caribbean Islands and S.
Florida. - Another patch of absorbing aerosol (local dust?)
is seen over the Colorado Plateau, well separated
from the Sahara dust.
34Illustration of RAW Quebec Smoke, July 6, 2002
Right. SeaWiFS satellite and METAR surface haze
shown near-real time in the Voyager distributed
data browser Below. SeaWiFS, METAR and TOMS
Absorbing Aerosol Index superimposed Satellite
data are fetched from NASA GSFC surface data
from NWS/CAPITA servers
35Incremental Transport Probalility
36Analysis Value Chain CATTs Habitat
37Transport Probability Metrics
- The transport metric is calculated from two
residence time grids, one for all trajectories
and another for trajectories on selected
(filtered days). Both residence time grids are
normalized by the sum of all resdence times in
all grid cells - pijfrij/SS rij pijarij/SS rij
- pijf, is the filtered and pija is the unfiltered
residence time probabilitiy that an airmasses
passes through a specific grid. There is a choice
of transport probaility metrics - The Incremental Residence Time Probability (IRTP)
proposed by Poirot et al., 2001 is obtained by
subtracting the chemically filtered grid from the
unfiltered residence time grid, IRTP pijf -
pija - The other metric is the Potential Source
Contribution Function (PSCF) proposed by Hopke et
al., 19xx which is the ratio of the filtered and
unfiltered residence time probabilities, PSCF
pijf / pija
38Transport Metric Selection
- Currently, there is a choice of two different
transport probability metrics - Incremental Residence Time Probability (IRTP)
proposed by Poirot et al., 2001 is the difference
between the chemically filtered and unfiltered
residence time probalbilities. Positive values of
IRTP in a grid indicates more than average
liekihood of transport (red) negative IRTP
values (blue) represent less than average
likeihood of transport. - Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF)
proposed by Hopke et al., 19?? is computed as the
ratio of the filtered and unfiltered residence
time probabilities. Higher values of PSCF is
indicative of inreased source contribution. - The desired metric is selected through a dialog
box invoked by clicking on the right-most button
in the TRAJ_CHEM layer.
39SUMMARY
- The atmospheric dust system occupies at least 8
key dimensions - g (x, y, x, t, size, comp, shape, mixture)
- The current observational revolution (satellites,
surface networks) allows monitoring many aspects
of the global daily aerosol pattern and
transport. - Each sensor/system measures different aspects of
aerosols, usually resolving some and integrating
over other dimensions. - Data from multiple sensors/systems (satellites
AND surface) along with models are required to
characterize the 8D system and to derive
actionable knowledge. - Current data and analysis tools allow the
estimation of transcontinental transport of dust
to N. America. - The yearly average fine (lt2.5 um) Sahara dust
concentration over the SE US is 0.2 1 ug/m3,
with July peak concentration of 2-6 ug/m3. - During specific transcontinental dust transport
episodes from Africa and Asia, the globally
transported surface dust concentrations approach
50-100 ug.m3 over 1000 km - scale regions of
North America. - These events constitute significant perturbations
to the aerosol pattern of North America.
40SUMMARY New Opportunities
- We are in the midst of a sensory revolution
regarding the detection of global aerosol
sources, transport and some of the effects.
Satellite and surface network provide daily
pattern of aerosol. - Still, the available aerosol data provides only a
sparse characterization of the aerosol system. - The Internet facilitates communication and the
sharing, (reuse) of data and tools. There is a
growing collaborative-sharing spirit in the
scientific community The winds of change are
here but we need to harness them for faster
learning - Establishing trans-continental source-receptor
relationship for dust is attainable with
available observational and modeling tools but
will require - Open flow of data/knowledge and sharing of tools
- Creation of scientific value-adding chains
- Decomposition and reintegration of the 8D aerosol
system
41Combined Aerosol Trajectory Tool (CATT)
- Example Airmass origin for high (2.5average)
nitrate
Boundary Waters
Doly Sods
Lye Brook
Smoky Mtn.
Triangulation indicates nitrate source in the
corn belt
42CATT A Community Tool! Part of an Analysis
Value Chain
43Significant Natural Contributions to Haze by RPO
Judged qualitatively based on current surface
and satellite data
WRAP Local Smoke Local Dust Asian Dust
MANE-VU Canada Smoke
VISTAS Local Smoke Sahara Dust
MRPO Local Smoke Canada Smoke Local Dust
CENRAP Local Smoke Mexico/Canada Smoke Local
Dust Sahara Dust
- Natural forest fires and windblown dust are
judged to be the key contributors to regional
haze - The dominant natural sources include locally
produced and long-range transported smoke and dust
44Scientific Challenge Description of PM
Particulate matter is complex because of its
multi-dimensionality It takes at leas 8
independent dimensions to describe the PM
concentration pattern
- Gaseous concentration g (X, Y, Z, T)
- Aerosol concentration a (X, Y, Z, T, D, C, F,
M) - The aerosol dimensions size D, composition C,
shape F, and mixing M determine the impact on
health, and welfare.
45Technical Challenge Characterization
- PM characterization requires many different
instruments and analysis tools. - Each sensor/network covers only a limited
fraction of the 8-D PM data space. - Most of the 8D PM pattern is extrapolated from
sparse measured data. - Some devices (e.g. single particle electron
microscopy) measure only a small subset of the
PM the challenge is extrapolation to larger
space-time domains. - Others, like satellites, integrate over height,
size, composition, shape, and mixture dimensions
these data need de-convolution of the integral
measures.
46Data Analysis and Decision Support
47July 2020 Quebec Smoke Event
- Superposition of ASOS visibility data (NWS) and
SeaWiFS reflectance data for July 7, 2002
- PM2.5 time series for New England sites. Note the
high values at White Face Mtn. - Micropulse Lidar data for July 6 and July 7, 2002
- intense smoke layer over D.C. at 2km altitude.
48GLAS Satellite Lidar (Geoscience Laser Altimeter
System) First satellite lidar for continuous
global observations of Earth
California Fires, Oct 7, 2003
492002 Quebec Smoke over the Northeast
- Smoke (Organics) and Sulfate concentration data
from VIEWS integrated database - DVoy overlay of sulfate and organics during the
passage of the smoke plume