Project Proposal Demand Forecasting FCPS February 9, 2006

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Project ProposalDemand Forecasting
(FCPS)February 9, 2006

• Team L4Ws
• Team lead Clarence Worrell
• Team members
• Bruce Laher Laura White Fumie Wingo Warisa
  Wisittipanich
• Faulty advisor Prof. Karla Hoffman
• External sponsor Dr. Bob Zarnich/Steve Hunt
  (FCPS)
• Project type SE

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Problem Statement

• Static Pupil Population Across County
• Growth in some parts, decline in others
• Forecasting this for infrastructure, boundaries,
  and other related planning is critical

Funding constraints
Infrastructure cant keep pace with growth
Overcrowded Schools
Unreliable forecasting models
Inaccurate projection of needs
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Background Population Forecasting

• Varied Methods
• Ad Hoc
• Expert Opinion
• Lag Technique (Use Last Year to Fix This Year)
• Varied Sources of Data
• County Survey
• Federal Census
• Other County Sources

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Statement of Work (SOW)

• Develop an effective methodology to accurately
  forecast school demand in a high resolution
  fashion to allow local forecasting for each
  school community using existing resources
• Develop overarching Information Technology System
  Design to allow more effective use of existing
  county, federal or private data available to
  support forecasting requirements
• Assess utility of addition sources of data via
  surveys or appropriate sampling method

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Scope

• Develop Methodology / System to forecast student
  population to support 1, 5, and 10 year planning
  horizons.

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Technical Approach

• Understand Problem
• Identify Data Sources and Key Drivers
• Develop Methodology
• Define/Design/Build System
• Verify/Validate System

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Understand Problem

• Determine extent nature of deviations from past
  trends (lessons learned)
• Identify/analyze factors conditions that cause
  people to move in/out of area (e.g., new industry
  relocating to area, retirees)
• Interview Stakeholder
• School Staff
• School/Zoning Board
• Citizen Organizations

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Possible Data Sources

• Data Types
• Industry/Labor data
• Housing data
• Household income data
• Population demographics
• School stats (FCPS other schools in metro area)
• Enrollment data (number of students, class size,
  etc)
• Standardized test scores, national school
  ratings, etc
• Boundary maps
• Sources
• Census bureau
• Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
• Industry profiles, business journals (e.g., Dunn
  Bradstreet)
• NoVA Association of Realtors
• FCPS
• Employment reports (CPDF, BRAC, etc)
• Subjective stakeholder data

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Develop Methodology / Model

• Use historical data, current data and forecasting
  data
• Analyze trends rates of change
• Analyze impact of dynamics in metro area
• Key public infrastructure (i.e., roads, bridges)
• Other public infrastructure (i.e., parks, malls)
• House values, housing development market
• Urban sprawl emergence of new school districts
• Crime
• Other metro area national school rankings and
  trends
• Leverage existing forecasting models

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Define / Design / Build System

• Define and Validate System Requirements
• Requires Stakeholder Input
• Develop Functional/Physical Architecture
• Code / Build

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Preliminary Requirements

• Easy to update and run
• Utilize proven methodology
• Provide consistent and accurate results
• Run on a standard, windows-based desktop computer
• User friendly
• Require no special software
• No special training required
• Well documented (built into system)
• Use readily available input data sources
• Provide output in both screen and report format
• Output easily understood

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Verification Validation

• VV is critical to User/Stakeholder acceptance of
  the system
• Verification (Did we build the thing right?)
• Originating and Derived Requirements must be
  testable / verifiable.
• Verification Methods Inspection Test
• Validation (Did we build the right thing?)
• Method Demonstration
• Validate against scenarios with known outcomes

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Key Deliverables

• Systems Engineering Documentation
• Validated System/Forecasting Tools
• User Documentation
• Final Project Report Demo
• Initial Set of Results

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Project Management

• Schedule
• Team Responsibilities
• Risk Management

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Top Level Schedule
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Team Responsibilities/Leads
(notional)
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Team Collaboration

• Group site established
• http//groups.google.com/group/Land4Ws
• Check emails/group site at least once a day
• Set up a due date/time for each milestone
• Configuration management

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Preliminary Risks

• Schedule
• a. Short timeline to produce results
• Technical
• a. Complexity of problem
• b. Data may not be readily available

1a
2b
Probability of Occurrence
2a
Consequence of Occurrence
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Summary
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Comments/Questions?

• THANK YOU!