DOIUSGS Global Change Research relationship to CCRIUSGCRP

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DOI/USGS Global Change Research relationship
toCCRI/USGCRP
July 25, 2002
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DOI/USGS Global Change Research History

• Study of the Earth and its processes since 1879
• Interdisciplinary system dynamics and
  variability
• Long-term monitoring, process studies, modeling,
  assessment
• Terrestrial NA focus
• Responsive to land and resource management and
  policy needs.

• Chair CES CEES
• Chair Terrestrial Research Group
• Chair DOI GC group
• Chair National Assessment WG
• Lead AK, Rockies-Great Basin, SW and Water
  assessments support HA
• Co-chair US Carbon Cycle WG

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Review and Quality of DOI/USGS Global
Change Research

• USGS provides unbiased, objective scientific
• information upon which other entities may
  base
• judgments
• Comprehensive internal and external procedures
  exist
• to ensure the quality, objectivity, utility,
  and integrity of
• data,analyses, and scientific conclusions
• Early Global Change Program guided through an
• external review and advisory committee
• Current program guidance and review within the
• context of broader programs
• NAS/NRC often serves as Program reviewer
• Project awards made based on internal/external
• review.

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Examples of USGS Programs Contributing
to CCRI/USGCRP
National Streamflow Information Program (NSIP)

• 7000 active stations
• All data are freely available (on the web
  http//water.usgs.gov/nsip)
• Many partners contribute funding
• USGS operates the network on behalf of all

• Monitor streamflow --
• Streamflow Forecasts
• River Basin Outflows
• Interstate and International Waters
• Sentinel Watersheds
• Water Quality
• Estimate streamflow at ungaged sites

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Examples of USGS Programs Contributing
to CCRI/USGCRP
National Atmospheric Deposition Program /
National Trends Network (NADP/NTN)

• Provide a long-term, high-quality database of
  atmospheric deposition for research support in
  the areas of air quality, water quality,
  agricultural effects, forest productivity,
  materials effects, ecosystem studies, watershed
  studies and human health.

• Monitor wet atmospheric deposition (chemicals
  deposited in precipitation to the earths surface)
• Interagency NADP/NTN has 240 sites throughout the
  United States.
• USGS is lead Federal agency
• Operates 74 sites.

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Examples of USGS Programs Contributing
to CCRI/USGCRP

• DSS for Watershed and River System Management
• Watershed runoff combined with climate
  variability, water allocations, and dam operation
  requirements utilizing Modular Modeling System
• Visualization and GIS delivery of outputs

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DOI/USGS Global Change Research Program
02 03 USGCRP/CCRI Focused Programs Earth
Surface Dynamics 10.1 10.1 Terrestrial
Coastal Ecosystem Changes 5.5 5.5
Satellite Data Management Dissemination
4.5 4.5 Land Surface Characterization
3.1 3.1 Water Energy Biogeochemical
Budgets 2.7 2.7 Global Change Hydrology
(Hydroclimatology) 2.6 2.6 Total
28.5 28.5 Directly
Related Gas Hydrate Project 1.4 1.4
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DOI/USGS Global Change Program
x-walk with CCRI/USGCRP Goals
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Earth Surface Dynamics Program
Dust storms in arid lands

• Goal - Understand forecast response of land
  surface ecosystems to climate land-use
  changes on scales relevant to societal issues
• Objectives - Understand how land surfaces
  ecosystems responded to past climate other
  environmental factors
• Develop models that describe land-surface and
  ecologic change under likely scenarios of future
  climate and land use
• Monitor modern interactions among land surfaces,
  climate, ecological systems, human activities

Dust storm, Las Vegas April, 15, 2002
Las Vegas Wash
Climate Records
Las Vegas Wash - Floods, erosion, urban hazards
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ESD Program Activities
CCRI/USGCRP Goals

• Goal 1 Enhance the Science base
• - Interactions of natural climate variability
• Climate modeling on global/regional scales
• Global cycles of C,H20,N
• Interactions between humans/climate/environment
• Goal 2 Enhance observations and monitoring
  systems
• Observation systems
• Monitoring Systems
• Observation Programs
• Goal 3 Improve decision support tools
• Climate data sets
• Science based tools
• Potential scenarios
• Goal 4 Enhance exploratory research
• -Develop novel approaches
• - New ideas to improve scientific understanding

Carbon in Alaska Mississippi River basin
(quantification of sources / sinks fire
dynamics) Future vegetation change (North
American biosphere decadal scale) Permafrost
glacier monitoring (Arctic environments carbon
release from permafrost) Climate records
natural climate variability (Alaska, Gulf of
Mexico, Western U.S., Mid- continent) Landsca
pe evolutioncontrols on ecosystem dynamics
(invasive species, fire, drylands, forests, soil
moisture) Land-surface response to climate
variability land use (sediment/soil erosion
deposition soil moisture nutrient
status) Particulate matter dust sourcesair
quality human health (geologic factors)
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Earth Surface Dynamics Program
Partnerships with other agencies
Monitoring ecosystem / landscape dynamics
change Canyonlands National Park
DOI Research, monitoring, decision support
NPS 22 units, (25 activities), 2
offices (Geology Air Quality) BLM 16 districts
(8 states) Grand Staircase-Escalante Natl
Mon MMS Gulf of Mexico FWS 8 units BIA Navajo and
Hopi nations BOR Salton Sea air quality
Soil-moisture monitoring documents effects of
ongoing drought
NOAA - Drought histories sea-level change impacts
EPA - Long-distance dust transport of pathogens
PM10
DOD Dust storm prediction Alaska fire science
remote sensing
NASA Remote sensing applications
DOE LLNL accelerator for isotopic dating
CDC Toxic metals in in dust from Owens (dry)
Lake, CA
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ESD Accomplishments

• Climate Variability and Change
• Developing detailed records of past climatic and
  environmental changes
• (e.g., recent drought histories)
• Monitoring glaciers in retreat
• Monitoring permafrost changes on the North Slope,
  Alaska
• Recording recent temperature change from polar
  boreholes
• Changing Ecosystems
• Establishing databases of fossil pollen and plant
  macrofossils for regional syntheses
• Developing methodologies for assessing ecosystem
  changes through time
• Developing capabilities to monitor and model
  changes in ecosystems
• Developing geologic and ecologic methodologies to
  estimate the vulnerability of specific public
  lands to invasive plant species
• Human Dimensions of Global Change
• National Climate Change Assessment
• - lead role in Southwest

Carbon cycling/permafrost monitoring in the arctic
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ESD Accomplishments

• Global Carbon Cycle
• Development of the U.S. Carbon Cycle working
  group Carbon Cycle science plan.
• Detailed carbon inventory measuring modeling
  sources sinks Alaska and Mississippi R. basin
• Air pollution air quality related to
  particulate matter
• Long-term monitoring and modeling of dust
  generation and transport in arid regions of
  western U.S.
• Health effects of dust from soil inhabiting
  pathogens and toxic metals

Species may expand or contract their extent with
a changing climate. Here the range of Douglas fir
can be seen to diminish under a doubled CO2
climate.
Douglas Fir
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ESD - Future Emphasis

• Expand network of permafrost and borehole
  monitoring sites to determine regional thaw
  patterns in the arctic
• Arctic environments carbon release from
  permafrost
• Climate records- understanding natural climate
  variability
• Focus on recent changes and their effects on land
  surface
• Interdisciplinary research on interactions among
  physical, ecologic, human systems at regional
  ecosystem scales
• Sediment/soil erosion deposition soil
  moisture nutrient status invasive species
  fire dry lands forests ecologic forecasts
• Effects of climate change on air quality human
  health
• Geologic-ecologic factors of dust generation
  new methods to detect transport paths
• Natural human sources of particulate matter
• Dust-borne soil pathogens

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Terrestrial and Coastal Ecosystem Changes

• Program Goals
• Determine sensitivity and response of natural
  systems to climate and environmental factors at
  the local, landscape and regional levels
• Predict future global change impacts on the
  structure, function and viability of natural
  systems
• Provide scientific information and assistance for
  resource management.

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Terrestrial and Coastal Ecosystems
Accomplishments Glacier Decline Documentation
of decline of glaciers and treeline-tundra
invasion in Glacier NP and Cascades NP Fire
Climate History Long-term fire-climate history,
Does climate synchronize fire regimes at regional
scale? Past fire occurrence in the montane zone
of the Front Range is strongly influenced by El
Niño-Southern Oscillation events. Major fire
years tend to lag El Niño years by one to three
years due to moist springs which enhance fuel
production. Major fire years tend to coincide
with La Niña years which are characterized by dry
springs.
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Terrestrial and Coastal Ecosystems
Accomplishments Vegetation Change The pattern
of high-elevation conifer growth rates in the
Sierra Nevada during the last half of the 20th
century differs from any time in the past 1000
years, indicating a biological signature of
climate change. Multiple Stressors The
cumulative effects of key habitat loss, land use
change, invading plants, animals, and diseases
and other stressors need to be understood in the
context and climate change to manage effectively
in the coming decades and century. Sea-Level
Change Established standard method (Surface
Elevation Table, SET) to determine Sea-level
change in coastal wetlands, monitoring network,
wetland processes and ability of wetlands to
adjust to sea-level rise.
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Terrestrial and Coastal Ecosystem Changes Future
Directions
Wetland Carbon Sequestration Mountain Ecosystems
Coastal Wetlands Western Rangelands Wildlife-Habi
tat Interactions
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Satellite Data Management Dissemination

• Goal Provide national leadership in managing
  and providing access to satellite land remote
  sensing data and other earth surface data.
• Objectives Develop policies, programs,
  mandates, and foster a culture that enhances the
  Nations access to its investment in over 40
  years of satellite land remote sensing data and
  its potential use in global change research
  activities.
• Populate, preserve, protect, and provide access
  to the National Satellite Land Remote Sensing
  Data Archive (NSLRSDA) as directed by Public Law
  102-555.

Water Assessment
Deforestation and Fire Monitoring
Hazards Monitoring
Land Use Mapping
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Satellite Data Management Partnerships
National Partners NASA Migration of Science
Data to the long term archive. NOAA Reciprocal
Archive Arrangements Established DOD
Declassification of Satellite Coverage
1960-1980 DOA Department of Agriculture Archive
Advisory Committee International Partners CEOS
Committee on Earth Observation
Satellites United Nations Environmental Program
CCRS Canadian Center for Remote
Sensing Landsat International Ground Stations
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Land Remote Sensing from Space Acquisition to
Applications


Earth Observation Satellites
USGS National Archive Challenge
Data Applications

• Land Cover
• Fire Danger Rating
• Natural Hazards
• Coastal Zones
• Environmental Science
• Emergency Response

• Declassified Systems
• Landsat 1-5
• NOAA - POES
• Shuttle Radar Topo Mission
• Landsat 7
• NASA-EOS
• Other Systems

• Preserve
• Provide Access
• Process
• Reproduce
• Distribute
• Hold in Trust

Expanding to over 18 million images of the earth!
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SDMD Accomplishments

• Population
• Landsat 5 7
• EOS Terra (MODIS and ASTER)
• AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer)
• Earthsat Data Buy (Landsat Mosaics of the world)
• Long-term Data Transfers from NASA.
• Preservation
• Over 200,000 Landsat scenes recovered from old
  media (WBVT)
• Over 900,000 SPOT scenes converted to new media
  (DLT)
• Over 39,000 square feet of archive space
  maintained at proper archive temperature and
  humidity ratings.
• Providing Access
• Served up 6 million metadata records for web
  users and transferred over 30,000 data orders to
  the product generation system (Earth Explorer).
• Implemented two new access systems (GIS Server
  and GloViz)

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USGS Products from the Archive
Products Derived from Classified Data
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SDMD - Future Emphasis

• Declass II Release of 50,000 frames of imagery.
• Implementation of the next round of media
  conversion.
• Long-term archiving is not a one-time job.
• Add data from the EOS Aqua Mission (MODIS)
• Continue to foster backup archive arrangements.
• Continue to migrate NASA mission data to the USGS
  long-term archive.
• Promote seamless access to archive data.
• Encourage USGS partners to use archive and
  information/metadata standards and best
  practices.

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Land Surface Characterization Research Goals
Objectives

• USGS Goals
• Understand land surface response to natural and
  human forcing
• Understand impacts of land surface change on
• carbon and other nutrient cycling
• ecosystem health
• human health
• weather and climate

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Land Surface Characterization Research
Activities

• Examples of research activities
• Land cover trends
• Land cover characterization
• Regional land use change
• Geographic analysis of disease
• Impacts of metropolitan growth
• Land use/cover and carbon studies

• Goals of CCRI/USGCRP Integrated Program
• Goal 1 Enhance the Science base
• Factors that determine
• Feedbacks that determine
• Global cycles of carbon
• Evaluation of science questions
• Goal 2 Enhance observations and monitoring
  systems
• Observation systems
• Monitoring systems
• Goal 3 Improve decision support tools
• Identification and estimation
• Improved indicators
• Goal 4 Enhance exploratory research
• Fostering new ideas

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Land Surface Characterization Research Partners
and Collaborators

• MRLC Consortium
• CDC
• USGS Disciplines
• NPS, BLM, FWS
• States
• Multi-agency programs (SFL, CBP)
• EPA, NRCS, USFS, USACOE
• Universities
• Cities (COGs)
• USAID
• International Organizations (IGBP, UNEP)

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Land Surface Characterization Research
Accomplishments

• Developed first-ever validated global land cover
  database at 1-km resolution
• Developed global elevation database at 1-km
  resolution and elevation derivative database for
  most continents that includes slope, aspect, flow
  direction and accumulation, drainage basins,
  streams, and shaded relief
• Developed national-scale soil carbon maps
• Developed time series of vegetation phenology
  that demonstrates changes in the growing season
• Developed approach and techniques for
  documenting, visualizing, and modeling regional
  land cover changes
• Earned international reputation for developing,
  processing, analyzing, and applying global land
  cover and associated data and information

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Land Surface CharacterizationResearch Future
Emphasis

• Quantify human drivers of land use and land cover
  change
• Improve monitoring, measuring, and mapping of
  land use and land cover
• Integrate land-use, land management, and
  land-cover change with other global environmental
  change elements
• Parameterize land surface aspects of atmospheric
  and ecosystem models
• Assess of landscape dynamics (i.e., land use
  change impacts)
• Understand land use impacts on ecosystem status
  and performance

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Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB)
Program
GOALS Investigate long-term changes in small
watersheds to increase understanding of the
effects of natural variations and determine the
influence of climate and human activities  Scale
up information gained in the intensive study of
small watersheds to apply to larger
watersheds OBJECTIVES To understand watershed
processes responsible for hydrologic spatial
variations and decadal scale trends To
understand sediment budgets and biogeochemical
fluxes and how they are influenced by climate and
hydrologic change
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Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB)
Program
GOALS Investigate long-term changes in small
watersheds to increase understanding of the
effects of natural variations and determine the
influence of climate and human activities  Scale
up information gained in the intensive study of
small watersheds to apply to larger
watersheds OBJECTIVES To understand watershed
processes responsible for hydrologic spatial
variations and decadal scale trends To
understand sediment budgets and biogeochemical
fluxes and how they are influenced by climate and
hydrologic change
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WEBB - Long-Term Research Sites

• Luquillo Experimental Forest, PR
• Trout Lake, WI
• Panola Mountain, GA
• Sleepers River, VT
• Loch Vale, CO

Government infrastructure and data support USGS,
NPS, USFS, NSF (LTER), CRREL, NADP, UNESCO, State
Agencies
Collaborative research with scientists from other
USGS programs, Federal and State agencies. Over
50 academic/research institute scientists have
collaborated with USGS at the sites and 50
students have received theses or dissertations
based on work at the sites.
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• CCRI/USGCRP Goals
• Science Base
• Natural and human-induced climatic variability
• Interactions of humans, climate, and
  environmental factors
• Carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles
• Climate-terrestrial ecosystem interactions
• Observation and Monitoring
• Long-term trends
• Decision Support Tools
• Societal and ecosystem response
• Improved indicators
• Exploratory Research
• Novel approaches
• Scientific understanding

WEBB Current Activities Watershed modeling
for intersite comparison Application of a
mass balance approach to understand the
distribution and transport of water, sediment,
and solutes in watersheds Studies of the
linkages of climate, hydrology, and
biogeochemistry (e.g., C, N, Hg)
Investigations of human and climate induced
disturbances to landscapes Research on
climate and chemical weathering Long-term
data collection (hydrologic, chemical, isotopic)
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WEBB Recent Accomplishments

• Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling
• emissions of CO2 and CH4 in a wetland to
  determine C sources/sinks
• annual emissions of CO2 and CH4 in 34 lakes in
  different geologic settings
• linkages of NO3, DOC, and Hg, and discharge
  during snowmelt
• pathways of N cycling using isotopic signatures
• Hydrologic Trends
• partitioning of contributions to stream flow
• hydrologic data related to droughts (Puerto Rico)
• removing climatic effects from trends in
  streamwater load estimates
• modeling hydrologic responses using TOPMODEL
• Chemical Weathering
• impact of temperature on weathering rates of
  granitoids
• differential weathering rates of silicates
• Sediment Disturbances  
• mass wasting, sediment storage, and land
  disturbance in the tropics
• hillslope runoff and soil erosion in forested
  tropical watersheds

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WEBB Future Directions

• For first 10 years, focus has been on
  understanding processes and looking at temporal
  trends within individual watersheds.
• Future will focus more on cross-site comparisons
  and on scaling up findings to larger spatial
  scales
• Adapt and use watershed models
• to compare and contrast findings from WEBB
  watersheds with other watersheds
• to scale up processes to understand larger
  systems.
• Continue use of isotopes (stable and metallic) to
  understand processes of nutrient cycling and
  hydrologic change
• Examine the effects of temperature and spatial
  and temporal variability on biogeochemical and
  hydrologic processes (e.g. surface water- ground
  water interactions).
• QA/QC long-term data sets and analyze the data
  for trends.

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USGS Global Change Hydrology (Hydroclimatology)

• Goal
• Understanding and prediction of --
• spatial and temporal hydrologic variability
  (e.g., stream flow, floods, droughts) --
• in relation to atmospheric circulation and
  climate indices.
• Approaches --
• Observation and monitoring
• Statistical time-series analysis
• Hydrologic modeling

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Hydroclimatology -- Activities

• Key CCRI/USGCRP Goals
• Science base
• (Hydro)climatic variability
• Climate/hydrologic modeling
• Observation and monitoring
• monitoring program
• observation techniques
• Decision making and support tools
• Data sets
• Predictions

• Hydrology in general-circulation and regional
  climate models
• Glacier mass balance and snowpack
• Hydroclimatic variability
• Streamflow trends
• Timing of seasonal snowmelt and runoff
• Historical ice cover in New England lakes and
  streams
• Teleconnections

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Hydroclimatology -- Activities (continued)

• Key CCRI/USGCRP Goals
• Science base
• (Hydro)climatic variability
• Climate/hydrologic modeling
• Observation and monitoring
• monitoring program
• observation techniques
• Decision making and support tools
• Data sets
• Predictions

• Reconstruction of Paleohydroclimates
• Lake sediments
• Mineral deposits
• Packrat middens
• Modeling climate interaction with lakes,
  glaciers, fire, and vegetation

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Hydroclimatology -- Recent Accomplishments

• Sponsored and organized Annual Pacific Climate
  (PACLIM) workshops
• Long-term glacier mass-balance records
• Holocene Nevada-California drought chronology
• Freshwater forcing of abrupt climate change
• Long-term shift to earlier snowmelt and runoff in
  US west
• Fossil record of Holocene plant migration
  provides insights for future vegetation change
• Suppression of greenhouse warming by increased
  evaporation, Mississippi R basin

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Gas Hydrate Project

• Goal Investigations of methane hydrate
  formation, stability, and release in near-shore
  environments
• Objectives
• Determine natural hydrate distributions and the
  amount of methane present in gas hydrate
• Estimate amount of methane in
• gas hydrate for Nation and world

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Gas Hydrate Project

• CCRI / USGCRP Goals
• Goal 1 Enhance the Science base
• - Global cycles of Carbon
• Goal 2 Enhance observation monitoring systems
• - Provide new info on global distribution
• Goal 3 Improve decision support tools
• - Assessment of Earth-economic-energy systems
• Goal 4 Enhance Exploratory Research
• - Fostering new ideas

• Accomplishments
• Field and analytical tools to improve assessments
  of gas hydrate occurrence and concentration
• Analytical tools and model simulations of the
  potential for release of marine gas hydrate
• Better understanding the role of marine gas
  hydrates in global change

Veins of gas hydrate
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Carbon Cycle Proposal
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US Land Cover (1000 hectares. from NCCTI draft)
Cropland 153,000 Forestland
302,000 Grass/Rangelands 225,000 Urban/Suburba
n 40,000 Wetlands 110,000
Proposed USGS wetlands research

• 1. Evaluate C stores and processes in US
  wetlands by type and by region, focusing on those
  in public ownership
• 2. Describe controls on net C storage including
• CO2/CH4 flux
• Accumulation and decomposition rates relative to
  plant community, hydrologic regime, nutrient
  status
• Contribution of below-ground production by
  wetland type
• Response to hydrology, elevated CO2, N
  deposition, increased temperature, sea-level rise
  

Policy-relevant outcomes 1) inventory of C
stocks in US wetlands, 2) understanding of
processes and rates of sequestration , and 3)
technologies and management strategies to prevent
loss/degradation of existing wetlands with high C
storage and/or sequestration capability.
Carbon Cycle Proposal
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Carbon Cycle Proposal
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Carbon Cycle Proposal
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An Historic Agricultural Reconstruction Using
County LevelUnited States Census Data1790-1997
Pam Waisanen Norman Bliss Michael Budde
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Data Sources

• 1790-1840 Extrapolated cropland
• calculated from rural population
• 1850-1920 Improved farmland
• 1940-1997 Cropland

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1790
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1997
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Dam construction lt1800-1993 Based on data in the
National Inventory of Dams. Symbol size and
darkness correspond to the size of the reservoir.
Black and grey symbols correspond to dams older
than the indicated time interval. Red symbols
correspond to dams constructed during the time
interval.
From Before 1800 to 1993
Prepared by Robert Stallard US Geological
Survey Boulder, CO 80303-1066 e-mail
stallard_at_usgs.gov
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NID 1600-2000
Hit space bar to start sequence.
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Carbon Cycle Proposal
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Carbon Cycle Proposal
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DOI/USGS Global Change Research
Contacts Program Overview Paul Dresler
703-648-4114 paul_dresler_at_usgs.gov Earth Surface
Dynamics Martha Garcia 703-648-5330 mgarcia_at_usgs
.gov Terrestrial and Coastal Stan Coloff
703-648-4083 stan_coloff_at_usgs.gov Ecosystem
Changes Satellite Data Management John
Faundeen 605-594-6092 faundeen_at_usgs.gov and
Dissemination Larry Pettinger 703-648-4519
lpetting_at_usgs.gov Land Surface
Characterization David Kirtland
703-648-4712 dakirtland_at_usgs.gov Water Energy
Linda Friedman 703-648-5051 lcfried_at_usgs.gov B
iogeochemical Budgets Global Change Hydrology
Bill Kirby 703-648-5315 wkirby_at_usgs.gov Gas
Hydrates Martha Garcia 703-648-5330 mgarcia_at_usg
s.gov Carbon Cycling Dave Shultz 703-648-5729
djshultz_at_usgs.gov Eric Sundquist
508-457-2397 esundqui_at_usgs.gov