SUMMARY OF KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN SOUTH EAST EUROPE

1
SUMMARY OF KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN SOUTH
EAST EUROPE
May 2006
2
Content
Content

• Overview of Macroeconomic Indicators
• Overview of Operational Costs in SEE

3
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Framework
4
Macroeconomic Framework
GDP growth in 2005 has been strong across the SEE
region and is expected to remain strong in 2006,
in spite of rising energy costs.
Source ICEG European Center, EIU Figures are
forecasts 1Average weighted by GDP - excludes
Moldova
5
Macroeconomic Framework
Inflation has largely been kept under control in
2005. It is expected to decline further this year
in Romania and Serbia and Montenegro, but will
rise significantly in Moldova.
Source ICEG European Center, EIU Figures are
forecasts 1Retail price index 2Average weighted
by GDP excludes Moldova
6
Macroeconomic Framework
Unemployment remains high in SEE countries,
especially in the FYRoM, Bosnia Herzegovina,
and Serbia Montenegro - countries experiencing
economic growth without job creation.
Source ICEG European Center, EIU Figures are
forecasts 1Average weighted by GDP excludes
Moldova
7
Macroeconomic Framework
Most SEE countries maintain a balanced budget
policy, with the exception of Albania and Croatia.
Source ICEG European Center, EIU 1Additional
spending compared to tax receipts relative to
GDP Figures are forecasts 2Average weighted by
GDP excludes Moldova
8
Macroeconomic Framework
Trade imbalances continue to be a key issue
across the region. The trade deficit is
counterweighted by capital inflows in the form of
remittances (Albania, BiH, and Moldova) and FDI
(Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia).
Source ICEG European Center 1The balance between
exports and imports of total goods and services
Figures are forecasts 2Average weighted by GDP
excludes Moldova
9
Macroeconomic Framework
Import Growth Rate vs. Export Growth Rate
Source wiiw, National Bank of Moldova Figures
are forecasts or estimates 1Average weighted by
GDP
10
Macroeconomic Framework
The FDI regional split is deepening Bulgaria,
Romania, Croatia, and Serbia attract an ever
growing share of FDI, while in all other
countries FDI inflows are low and declining.
Source ICEG 2006 Source EBRD Estimate ¹
Excludes Moldova
11
Macroeconomic Framework
Stock of FDI Per Capita - 2004
Source WIIW 2005
12
Overview of Operational Costs in SEE
Overview of Operational Costs in SEE
13
Cost of Wages in SEE
Overview of Operational Costs in SEE
Source ICEG Consultants, Economist Intelligence
Unit
14
Cost of Utilities in SEE
Overview of Operational Costs in SEE
Source ICEG Consultants
15
Cost of Real Estate in SEE
Overview of Operational Costs in SEE
Source ICEG Consultants
16
Cost of Transport in SEE
Overview of Operational Costs in SEE
Source ICEG Consultants