The Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study Initial Results of CLRP/CLRP Analysis with Round 6.4 Growth Forecasts and Five Alternative Land Use Scenarios

1
The Regional Mobility and Accessibility
StudyInitial Results of CLRP/CLRP Analysis
with Round 6.4 Growth Forecasts and Five
Alternative Land Use Scenarios

• Robert E. Griffiths
• Technical Services Director
• Department of Transportation Planning
• National Capital Region Transportation Planning
  Board Meeting
• July 21, 2004

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Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study

• Origin
• Special Study called for by the TPB TPB
  R12-2001
• Purpose
• Evaluate alternative options to improve mobility
  and accessibility between and among regional
  activity centers and the regional core
• Elements of Study
• Regional Congestion Management Program (CLRP)
• Land Use considerations and alternative scenarios
• Transportation scenarios with additional highway
  and transit facilities and capacity, including
  Potomac River crossings

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Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study

• Study Approach
• Building-Block Method
• Organization of Study
• Joint Technical Working Group (JTWG)
• TPB Technical Committee
• Planning Directors Technical Advisory Committee
• MWAQC Technical Advisory Committee
• TPB, MDPC and MWAQC Citizen Advisory Committees
• Monthly Meetings
• Briefings/Work Sessions with TPB and MDPC

4
Regional Congestion Management Plan (CLRP
Scenario)

• Coordinated Regional Transit Service Improvements
• Metrorail Core Capacity improvements
• New and Restructured bus routes
• Signal preemption and bus priority lanes
• Commuter rail and commuter bus enhancements
• Traffic Operations Improvements
• Enhanced management of freeway and arterial road
  systems
• Increased Incentives for Ridesharing and
  Telecommuting
• Active promotion of ridesharing and telecommuting
  programs
• Bicycle and Pedestrian Facilities Improvements
• Better designed bicycle and pedestrian facilities
  in regional activity centers and around transit
  stops

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CLRP Scenario with Coordinated Transit Service
Improvements Travel Modeling Results
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Round 6.4 Forecasts of Household and Job Growth
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Regional Activity Centers/Clusters

• 24 Clusters comprise about 455 square miles (13
  percent) of the regions total land area
• These regional activity clusters are forecast to
  capture 70 of the regions job growth and 42 of
  the regions household growth in the 2010 to 2030
  time period

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Five Alternative Land Use Scenarios

• Higher Household Growth in Region
• More Household Growth in Inner Areas and
  Clusters
• More Job Growth in Outer Areas
• Region Undivided
• Transit-Oriented Development

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Higher Household Growth in Region Scenario

• Assumes 216,000 more households by 2030 than in
  Round 6.4 growth forecasts
• Locates additional households in regional
  activity centers / clusters
• Reduces growth in commuter and other vehicle
  trips from areas outside the region
• Assumed additional 200,000 households would
  increase forecast 2010 to 2030 household growth
  by 60

10
More Households in Inner Areas and Clusters
Scenario

• Places more of the regions future household
  growth closer to major employment concentrations
• Improves the mix of jobs and housing in regional
  activity center / clusters
• Improves job / household balance in all
  jurisdictions
• Assumes a shift of 84,000 households, 23 of the
  forecast 2010 to 2030 growth

11
More Jobs in Outer Areas Scenario

• Places more of the regions future job growth in
  outer suburban jurisdictions
• Concentrates more jobs in growing outer area
  regional employment centers / clusters
• Improves job / household balance in all
  jurisdictions
• Assumes a shift of 82,000 jobs, 11 of the
  forecast 2010 to 2030 growth

12
Region Undivided Scenario Household Growth
Pattern Changes

• Places more future job and household growth in
  eastern portion of region
• Concentrates more household growth in eastern
  area regional activity centers / clusters
• Improves job / household balance in eastern and
  western portion of region
• Assumes a shift of 57,000 households, 16 of the
  forecast 2010 to 2030 growth

13
Region Undivided Scenario Employment Growth
Pattern Changes

• Places more future household and job growth in
  the eastern portion of the region
• Concentrates more job growth in eastern area
  regional activity centers / clusters
• Improves job / household balance in eastern and
  western portion of region
• Assumes a shift of 114,000 jobs, 15 of the
  forecast 2010 to 2030 growth

14
Transit-Oriented Development ScenarioHousehold
GrowthPattern Changes

• Places more of the regions future household and
  job growth around current and planned Metrorail
  stations, commuter rail stations or other transit
  centers
• Assumes a shift of 125,000 households, 35 of the
  forecast 2010 to 2030 growth

15
Transit-Oriented Development Scenario Employment
Growth Pattern Changes

• Places more of the regions future household and
  job growth around current and planned Metrorail
  stations, commuter rail stations or other transit
  centers
• Assumes a shift of 150,000 jobs, 19 of the
  forecast 2010 to 2030 growth

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Travel Modeling Results for Alternative Land Use
Scenarios Change in 2030 Vehicle Trips by Land
Use Scenario
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Percent Change in 2030 Vehicle Miles of Travel
(VMT)
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Percent Change in 2030 VMT Per Capita
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Percent Change in 2030 Daily Transit Trips
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Percent Change in 2030 Carpool/Vanpool Commuters
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Percent Change in 2030 Walk and Bike Commuting
Trips
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Percent Change in 2030 Lane Miles of Severe AM
Peak Period Congestion
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Next Steps

• Estimate the effects of CLRP traffic operations,
  ridesharing and telecommuting incentives
  bike/pedestrian improvements on regional travel
  demand measures
• Develop and refine the alternative transportation
  scenarios to be modeled with the alternative land
  use scenarios
• Further specify the network coding and land use
  assumptions for an enhanced HOV/HOT/Express Toll
  Lane transportation scenario to be analyzed and
  evaluated with the other alternative scenarios
• Evaluate the alternative transportation and land
  use scenario for all measures of effectiveness
  developed for this study.