FUNDAMENTALS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

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FUNDAMENTALS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

• Physical Causes
• Consequences
• Prevention, Mitigation, Monitoring, and
  Adaptation

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FUNDAMENTALS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

• Physical Causes

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PLANET EARTH
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GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE LITHOSPHERE-HYDROSPHERE-ATM
OSPHERE-BIOSPHERE INTERACTIONS
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PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS OCCUR ON MANY SCALES

• Propagation, reflection, and refraction of light
  and EM waves from the sun (creating the solar
  input)
• Absorption, storage, and re-radiation of light
  and EM waves (causing the natural greenhouse
  effect).
• Absorption of heat by greenhouse gases in the
  atmosphere (causing the Unnatural greenhouse
  effect).

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WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

• THE NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT KEEPS THE EARTH
  WARM AT ABOUT 57.9 DEGREES F, AND
• THE UNNATURALGREENHOUSE EFFECT CAUSES THE
  ATMOSPHERES TEMPERATURE TO RISE, FOLLOWED BY A
  RISE IN LAND AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES, CAUSING
  CLIMATE CHANGE ON A GLOBAL SCALE

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OCCURS WHEN AN EARTH
  WARMED BY THE SOLAR SPECTRUM RADIATES INVISIBLE
  INFRARED LIGHT BACK, BUT

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• CONTINUED
• INSTEAD OF GOING BACK TO SPACE, IT IS
  PARTLY ABSORBED BY GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE
  ATMOSPHERE
• NOTE ABSORPTION MAKES THE ATMOSPHERE WARMER.

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A WARMING EARTH SEPT 25, 2007
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THE AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN 1.7
DEGREES F IN PAST 150 YEARS
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2005 - HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD

• According to NASA and other organizations, 2005
  was the hottest year on record for the Northern
  Hemisphere.
• Temperatures were about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit
  above the historical average.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE THAT THE
  TROPO-SPHERE IS WARMING FASTER THAN THE EARTHS
  SURFACE.
• NOTE THIS INDICATES THAT GREENHOUSE GASES IN
  THE ATMOSPHERE ARE ABSORBING TOO MUCH HEAT.

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SOLAR INPUT

• After hitting Earth's upper atmosphere, about one
  - third of the sun's energy is reflected back
  into space.
• The two-thirds that gets through the atmosphere
  drives Earth's weather engine

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• THE SUN PROVIDES AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 1370
  WATTS OF POWER THROUGH EM RADIATION TO EVERY
  SQUARE METER OF SURFACE IT STRIKES.
• NOTE THIS IS CALLED THE SOLAR CONSTANT.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• THE SOLAR SPECTRUM INCLUDES VISIBLE LIGHT
  (ROYGBI), ULTRAVIOLET LIGHT (A WAVE LENGTH TOO
  SHORT TO SEE), AND INFRARED LIGHT (A WAVE LENGTH
  TOO LONG TO SEE).

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• ABOUT 33 PERCENT OF THE INCOMING SOLAR
  SPECTRUM IS REFLECTED BACK TO SPACE FROM CLOUDS,
  SNOW, AND, TO A LESSER DEGREE, BY LAND SURFACES..

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• THE BALANCE (ABOUT 70 PERCENT) OF THE
  INCOMING SOLAR SPECTRUM IS ABSORBED BY LAND, AIR,
  WATER, OR ICE.

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THE OCEANS STORE HEAT

• Oceans, the source of moisture in the air, store
  heat more effectively over the long term than
  land and transports it efficiently over
  distances of thousands of miles.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• THE EARTHS OCEANS ABSORB 20 TIMES AS MUCH
  HEAT AS THE EARTHS ATMOSPHERE.
• THE pH LEVEL OF THE EARTHS OCEANS HAS
  INCREASED.
• NOTE THE pH INCREASES AS CARBON DIOXIDE IS
  ABSORBED.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• SEA LEVEL RISES FOR TWO REASONS
• WATER EXPANDS WHEN IT IS WARMED, AND
• WATER VOLUME INCREASES AS MELT WATER IS ADDED.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• AVERAGE GLOBAL SEA LEVEL HAS INCREASED BY
  4.7 INCHES SINCE THE LAST ICE AGE.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• IF THE FLOATING ARCTIC ICE CAPS MELT,
  GLOBAL SEA LEVEL WILL NOT BE AFFECTED.
• IF ALL THE SNOW AND ICE IN GREENLAND
  MELTED, GLOBAL SEA LEVEL WILL RISE 24 FEET.

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CLOUDS CAUSE BOTH COOLING AND WARMING

• Clouds cool Earth by reflecting incoming solar
  energy.
• Clouds cool Earth by slowing evaporation.
• Clouds warm Earth by trapping heat being
  re-radiated upward from the Earths surface.

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LAND SURFACES AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE

• Mountain ranges can block clouds, creating "dry"
  shadows downwind.
• Sloping land facilitates water runoff, leaving
  the land and air drier.

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ICE AND SNOW

• Ice and snow reflects heat outward into space,
  cooling Planet Earth in the process.
• When ice melts into the ocean, the ocean water
  losses some of its stored heat.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• THE ALBEDO (PERCENT OF LIGHT REFLECTED) FOR
  FRESH SNOW IS 80-90 PERCENT,
• BUT IT IS ONLY 50 60 PERCENT FOR MELTING ICE.

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GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE

• Greenhouse" gases include water vapor, carbon
  dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

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WATER VAPOR

• Higher air temperatures increase the rate of
  water vaporization.
• Water vapor is the most potent greenhouse gas.

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VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

• Volcanic eruptions add water vapor and ash to
  the atmosphere.

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UNNATURALGREENHOUSE EFFECT

• Greenhouse gases trap heat inside the atmosphere.
• Too much trapped heat increases temperatures in
  the atmosphere and on the land and ocean
  surfaces, which causes climate change.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OCCURS NATURALLY.
• HUMAN ACTIVITIES EXACERBATE THE
  UNNATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT BY INCREASING
  CERTAIN GREENHOUSE GASES (E.G., CO2) ABOVE
  HISTORIC LEVELS.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• WITHOUT THE NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT, PLANET
  EARTH WOULD BE MUCH COLDER E.G., A TEMPER-ATURE
  OF ABOUT
• MINUS 2 DEGREES F.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• WITH AN UNNATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT, PLANET
  EARTH WOULD BE WARMER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE
  TEMPERATURE OF 57.9 DEGREES F.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• CARBON DIOXIDE ENTERS THE ATMOSPHERE
  NATURALLY, AND
• NATURE REMOVES CARBON DIOXIDE FROM THE
  ATMOSPHERE NATURALLY.

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THE OCEANS ARE A NATURAL CARBON SINK

• The oceans and marine life remove and/or consume
  huge amounts of carbon dioxide.

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WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• AS THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT INCREASES TEMPERATURES
  IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THE REMOVAL RATE OF CARBON
  DIOXIDE IS DECREASED.

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HUMAN INFLUENCES

• Humans are exacerbating warming by adding much
  more carbon dioxide to the greenhouse gases that
  are naturally present in the atmosphere, through
  .
• Extensive use of fossil fuels.

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HUMAN INFLUENCES

• Aerosols, smoke and sulfates reflect sunlight
  away from the Earth, which outweigh ----.
• The temporary, localized cooling effects from
  aerosols and the smoke and sulfates from industry.

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HUMAN INFLUENCES ON LAND SURFACES

• Once tropical forests (a carbon sink) are cleared
  for cattle ranching or community development, the
  cleared land can becomes a major source of
  methane, a greenhouse gas.

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FUNDAMENTALS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

• Consequences

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THE WATER CYCLE AND THE UNNATURAL GREENHOUSE
EFFECT

• Higher air temperatures increase the rate of
  water vaporization (Water vapor is the most
  potent greenhouse gas) and accelerate the melting
  of ice.
• .

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THE CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

• Worldwide rise in sea level.
• Collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation
  (The Atlantic Conveyor Belt).
• Increased probability of severe windstorms.
• Larger storm surges in seasonal hurricanes and
  typhoons.
• Prolonged droughts in some regions and heavy
  precipitation in others.

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THE CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

• Reduced fresh water for a large portion of
  humankind that presently obtains its fresh water
  from glacier-fed rivers.
• Loss of function of activities such as winter ski
  resorts.

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ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION

• The Atlantic Conveyor Belt keeps Europe from
  becoming a deep freeze in the winter.
• Ancient sediments, ice cores, and fossils
  indicate that the Atlantic Conveyor Belt shifted
  abruptly about 8,200 years ago, when a sudden
  cooling occurred.

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ATLANTIC CONVEYOR BELT

• As a result, the land temperature in Greenland
  dropped more than 9 degrees Fahrenheit within ONE
  OR TWO decades, an effect that could prove
  disastrous for Europe.

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GREENLANDS ICEBERGS
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GREENLAND

• Greenland's glaciers are melting into the sea
  twice as fast as the previously calculated rate
  of four miles per year.
• This faster rate, if continued in concert with
  similar observations in the Himalayas and South
  America, makes predictions of how quickly Earth's
  oceans will rise over the next century
  questionable and probably obsolete.

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GREENLAND AND ANTARCTICA

• The ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are
  among the largest reservoirs of fresh water on
  Earth.
• How much sea level will rise as a result of
  faster melting is unclear.
• Current estimates of around 50 cm (20 in) over
  the next century may be much too low.

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DECREASING ICE THICKNESS AT QUELCAYA, PERU
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GLACIAL RETREAT COLOMBIA
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GLACIAL RETREAT BALAIS, SWITZERLAND
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GLACIAL RETREAT GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, MONTANA
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SHEPHARD GLACIER 1913 (LEFT) AND 2005 (RIGHT)
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GRINNELL GLACIER 1938 (LEFT) AND 1991 (RIGHT)
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CORAL BLEACHING

• Ocean temperatures that are too warm stress
  corals, causing them to expel symbiotic
  micro-algaetheir food supply-- which lives in
  their tissues.
• As a result, the reefs appear bleached.
• Bleaching that lasts longer than a week can kill
  corals.
• One of the significant long-term impact is on the
  fishing industry.

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CORRAL BLEACHING FROM TEXAS TO TRINIDAD
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FUNDAMENTALS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

• Prevention, Mitigation, Monitoring, and
  Adaptation

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THE TIPPING SCENARIO ISSUE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE

• The Tipping Scenario Issue is
• Within a few decades, will humans be virtually
  helpless to slow, much less, reverse the risks
  associated with global warming?

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THE TECHNOLOGY ISSUE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

• The Technology issue is Can the global
  community slow and possibly reverse the perceived
  increasing adverse risks through timely
  technological innovations for prevention,
  mitigation, monitoring, and adaptation?

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BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE -
Perspectives On Science, Policy, And Change
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LOCAL REGIONAL SCALES
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN
UP AFTERSHOCKS
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Living with Global Climate Change
NO DISASTER
INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
INCREASED CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY
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Living With Global Climate Change
A DISASTER
DECREASED CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY
INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
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Prevention, Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

• PREVENTION (CONTROL THE SOURCE)
• MITIGATION (REDUCE THE IMPACTS)
• ADAPTATION (ANTICIPATE)

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Measures (continued)

• MONITORING
• SCENARIOS
• ADAPTATIVE RESPONSE TO MONITORING AND SCENARIOS
  

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ADAPTATION THAMES RIVER, LONDON
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AN ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE
UNITED STATES

• A report of the U.S. Climate Change Science
  Program, a joint effort of more than a dozen
  government agencies
• The full report is online at www.usgcrp.gov
• June 20, 2008

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BASED ON A CONTINENTAL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
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HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT

• "Heat waves and heavy downpours are very likely
  to increase in frequency and intensity.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT

• "Substantial areas of North America are likely
  to have more frequent droughts of greater
  severity.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT

• Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and
  storm surge levels are likely to increase.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT

• The cold season storms are likely to become more
  frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme
  wave heights."

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ADDITIONAL IMPLICATIONS

• Soil amplification of earthquake ground shaking
  is likely to be more pervasive.

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ADDITIONAL IMPLICATIONS

• Landslides triggered in earthquakes are likely
  to be more extensive.

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ADDITIONAL IMPLICATIONS

• The effects of tsunami wave run up will be more
  extensive.

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PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY

• By the end of this century rainfall amounts
  expected to occur every 20 years now could be
  taking place every five years.
• y the end of this century rainfall
  amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be
  taking place every five years.
• Such an increase "can lead to the type of events
  that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl,
  though he did not directly link the current
  flooding to climate change.

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PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY

• Such an increase "can lead to the type of severe
  floods that we are seeing at present in the
  Midwest.
• y the end of this century rainfall
  amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be
  taking place every five years.
• Such an increase "can lead to the type of events
  that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl,
  though he did not directly link the current
  flooding to climate change.

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ARE MIDWEST USA FLOODS A SIGN OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN
IN FUTURE?
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MIDWEST USA FLOODS A RESULT OF GREENHOUSE GASES
OR MAN'S AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES?
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MAN'S PAST ACTIVITIES ALTERED IOWA'S LANDSCAPE

• The heavy rains fell on a landscape that had
  been radically reengineered by humans for 50
  years.
• Plowed fields have replaced tall grass prairies.

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IOWA'S ALTERED LAND WAS VULNERABLE TO FLOODING
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MAN'S ACTIVITIES ALTERED IOWA'S LANDSCAPE

• Former prairie grass fields were meticulously
  drained with underground pipes.
• Streams and creeks were straightened.

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MAN'S ACTIVITIES ALTERED IOWA'S LANDSCAPE

• Most of the former wetlands were gone.
• Community development had taken over former
  floodplains.
• w

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LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS

• Comprehensive emergency management will be more
  difficult to plan and implement in the future.
• Sustainable infrastructure will also be
  difficult to plan and achieve.