The 2002 Challenge

1
The 2002 Challenge June 4, 2002
The Honorable Kenneth B. Mehlman Deputy Assistant
to the President and Director of Political Affairs
2
2002 Election Outlook
Senate
Governors
Democrat Seats Strong chance of R pickup -
5 Possible R pickup - 3 Republican
Seats Possible D Pickup - 6 Strong Chance of D
Pickup - 2 No Contest - 18
Democrat Seats Strong chance of R pickup -
5 Possible R pickup - 8 Republican
Seats Possible D Pickup - 6 Strong Chance of D
Pickup - 9 No Contest - 8
House
Competitive Republicans (25)
Tier 1- Competitive - 11 Tier 2- Competitive
Now - May Be Better - 8 Tier 3- Worth Watching -
6
Open Seats (19)
Vulnerable Democrats (10)
3
Battle for the House Competitive Republican Seats
AK
NH
WA
VT
ME
MT
ND
MA
MN
OR
NY
WI
RI
ID
SD
MI
CT
WY
PA
NJ
IA
NE
OH
DE
IN
NV
IL
UT
WV
MD
VA
CO
CA
KS
MO
KY
DC
NC
TN
OK
SC
AZ
AR
NM
GA
AL
MS
LA
TX
HI
FL
Competitive Republican Seats (25)
Tier 1- Competitive - 11 Tier 2- Competitive
Now - May Be Better - 8 Tier 3- Worth Watching -
6

4
Battle for the House Vulnerable Democrat Seats
AK
NH
WA
VT
ME
MT
ND
MA
MN
OR
NY
WI
RI
ID
SD
MI
CT
WY
PA
NJ
IA
NE
OH
DE
IN
NV
IL
UT
WV
MD
VA
CO
CA
KS
MO
KY
DC
NC
TN
OK
SC
AZ
AR
NM
GA
AL
MS
LA
TX
HI
FL
Competitive Republican Seats (25)

Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10)
5
Battle for the House Competitive Open Seats
AK
NH
WA
VT
ME
MT
ND
MA
MN
OR
NY
WI
RI
ID
SD
MI
CT
WY
PA
NJ
IA
NE
OH
DE
IN
NV
IL
UT
WV
MD
VA
CO
CA
KS
MO
KY
DC
NC
TN
OK
SC
AZ
AR
NM
GA
AL
MS
LA
TX
HI
FL
Competitive Republican Seats (25)

Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10)
Competitive Open Seats (19)
6
Battle for the Senate
AK
NH 1
NH
ME
ME -5
WA
VT
MT
MT 25
ND
MA
MN
MN -2
OR -0
OR
NY
WI
RI
ID
SD
SD 23
MI
CT
WY
NJ
NJ -15
PA
IA
IA -0
NE
OH
IN
NV
DE
IL
UT
WV
VA
MD
KY
CO 9
MO
MO 3
CA
KS
NC
NC 13
DC
TN
TN 4
OK
SC
AZ
AR
AR 5
NM
GA
GA 12
AL
MS
LA
LA 7
HI
TX 21
Strong Chance of R Pickup (5)
FL
Possible R Pickup (3)
Possible D Pickup (6)
Strong Chance of D Pickup (2)

2000 Bush Margin () shown
No Contest (18)
7
Battle for the Statehouse
AK 31
NH 1.3
NH
ME
ME -5.1
WA
VT -10
MT
MT
ND
MA -27
MN
MN -2
NY -25
OR
OR -0
WI -0
RI -29 CT -17
ID
SD
SD
MI -5
WY
PA -4
NJ
IA
IA -0

OH 3
NE
IL -12
IN
NV
DE
UT
WV
VA
MD -16
CO 9
MO
MO
CA -12
KS
KY
NC
NC
DC
TN
TN 4
SC 16
OK
AZ 7
AR
AR
NM -0
AL 15
GA 12
GA
MS

HI -18
LA
TX 22
FL 0
Strong Chance of R Pickup (5)
Possible R Pickup (8)
Possible D Pickup (6)
Strong Chance of D Pickup (9)

2000 Bush Margin () shown
No Contest (8)
8
2002 Campaign Outlook2002 1st Quarter Finances
( millions)
9
What Well Face2000 Political Expenditures
AFL-CIO 45.0 million Emilys List 20.0
million Planned Parenthood 14.0
million NAACP 11.0 million Sierra Club
9.5 million NEA 9.0 million NARAL 8.0
million Handgun Control 5.0 million LCV
4.0 million 125.5 million
10
(No Transcript)
11
The Strategic Landscape June 4, 2002
The Honorable Karl C. Rove Senior Advisor to the
President

12
Public OpinionSummary of Recent Data
Presidents approval rating still very strong

• Ratings at post-crisis high longer than any in
  history
• Durability is testament to Presidents leadership

Decline is natural and expected

• Rally effect fades as partisan allegiances
  reassert themselves
• No evidence that Enron attacks, POTUS political
  activity or economy has significantly impacted
  the Presidents rating

Republican Party is in strong position

• Congressional Republicans Democrats at parity
  in the generic ballot - Republicans trailed in
  1994
• GOP support on key issues

13
Public OpinionSummary of Recent Data
Economic outlook

• Confidence in current economy low
• Americans optimistic about economic future

14
Unprecedented Support Gallup Presidential Job
Approval
Office of Strategic Initiatives
15
Presidential Job Approval Analysis Public Poll
Average
Office of Strategic Initiatives
Based on Gallup, Fox, ABC/WP, IBD CBS/NYT
5/28/02
16
One Party Will Make History

• For Republicans White House party has won House
  seats in only 3 out of last 25 midterm elections
• For Democrats Only 3 times has either party
  gained House seats 4 elections in a row
• For Republicans White House party has lost
  Senate seats in 16 of 22 mid-terms since direct
  election

Office of Strategic Initiatives
17
Presidents Standing Matters
Average House Seats Lost by WH Party in Mid-Terms
Presidential Approval lt50 41 lost Presidential
Approval 50-59 20 lost Presidential Approval
60 5 lost
Source NBC/WSJ
Office of Strategic Initiatives
18
Mid-Term Political Landscape More Favorable to
Republicans
Control of Congress will turn on handful of races
decided by local issues, candidate quality, money
raised, campaign performance, etc.

• Extremely Popular President
• Recovering Economy
• Increased Importance of National Security Issues
• Redistricting
• No Compelling National Issue for Referendum
• Small Number of Competitive Races

Office of Strategic Initiatives
19
Democratic Strategy

• Support President on War
• Question Presidents Middle East Strategy
• Attack on Domestic Agenda -- Social Security,
  Health Care Costs, Environment, Education
• Use Budget, Tax Cuts and Enron for Class Warfare
• Divide President and Congressional Republicans
• Maximize Outside Resources

Office of Strategic Initiatives
20
Republican Strategy

• Focus on War and Economy
• Promote Compassion Agenda -- Education, Welfare,
  Faith
• Highlight Democrats Obstructionism on Judges,
  Agenda
• Mobilize GOP Base, Reach Out to Hispanics,
  Unions, African-Americans
• Strong Teamwork between White House, Political
  Committees and Members
• Maximize Outside Resources and Create New Forums

Office of Strategic Initiatives
21
2002 Bush Outreach
GROW Latinos Suburbs (esp. Women) Catholics Union
Members Wired Workers
MAINTAIN Base Coal Steel Farmers Ranchers
EXPAND Believers
IMPROVE African Americans
Office of Strategic Initiatives
22
Change in Electoral Apportionment
2000 Bush 271 Gore 267
2004 Bush 278 Gore 260
AK-3
NH-4
WA-11
ME-4
VT-3
MT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
NY-31 -2
OR-7
WI -10 -1
ID-4
SD-3
RI-4
MI-17 -1
WY-3
CT-7 -1
PA-21 -2
NJ-15
IA-7
OH-20 -1
NE-5
IL-21 -1
DE-3
IN-11 -1
NV-5 1
UT-5
WV-5
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9 1
CA-55 1
KS-6
KY-8
MO-11
NC-15 1
DC-3
TN-11
OK-7 -1
SC-8
AZ-10 2
AR-6
NM-5
GA-15 2
AL-9
MS-6 -1
LA-9
TX-34 2
HI-4
FL-27 2
Bush Carried 2000
Gore Carried 2000
23
Won by Less Than 5 78 Electoral Votes
AK-3
NH-4
WA-11
ME-4
VT-3
MT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
OR-7
NY-31
WI -10
ID-4
SD-3
RI-4
MI-17
WY-3
CT-7
PA-21
NJ-15
IA-7
NE-5
OH-20
IL-21
DE-3
NV-5
IN-11
UT-5
WV-5
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9
CA-55
KS-6
KY-8
MO-11
DC-3
NC-15
TN-11
OK-7
SC-8
AZ-10
AR-6
NM-5
GA-15
AL-9
MS-6
LA-9
TX-34
HI-4
FL-27
24
Lost By Less Than 1 29 Electoral Votes -- 307 EVs
AK-3
NH-4
WA-11
ME-4
VT-3
MT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
OR-7
NY-31
WI -10
ID-4
SD-3
RI-4
MI-17
WY-3
CT-7
PA-21
NJ-15
IA-7
NE-5
OH-20
IL-21
DE-3
NV-5
IN-11
UT-5
WV-5
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9
CA-55
KS-6
KY-8
MO-11
DC-3
NC-15
TN-11
OK-7
SC-8
AZ-10
AR-6
NM-5
GA-15
AL-9
MS-6
LA-9
TX-34
HI-4
FL-27
25
Lost By 1-5 63 Electoral Votes -- 370 EVs
AK-3
NH-4
WA-11
ME-4
VT-3
MT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
OR-7
NY-31
WI -10
ID-4
SD-3
RI-4
MI-17
WY-3
CT-7
PA-21
NJ-15
IA-7
NE-5
OH-20
IL-21
DE-3
NV-5
IN-11
UT-5
WV-5
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9
CA-55
KS-6
KY-8
MO-11
DC-3
NC-15
TN-11
OK-7
SC-8
AZ-10
AR-6
NM-5
GA-15
AL-9
MS-6
LA-9
TX-34
HI-4
FL-27
26
Special Concerns
AK-3
NH-4
WA-11
ME-4
VT-3
MT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
OR-7
NY-31
WI -10
ID-4
SD-3
RI-4
MI-17
WY-3
CT-7
PA-21
NJ-15
IA-7
NE-5
OH-20
IL-21
DE-3
NV-5
IN-11
UT-5
WV-5
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9
CA-55
KS-6
KY-8
MO-11
DC-3
NC-15
TN-11
OK-7
SC-8
AZ-10
AR-6
NM-5
GA-15
AL-9
MS-6
LA-9
TX-34
HI-4
FL-27
27

• Rep. Charles Rangel (D-Harlem) drew cheers when
  he hailed Clinton as "the last elected president
  of the U.S." and said, "It is our job to say
  we're not getting over Florida."