Human Dimensions of the Arctic System HARC Synthesis Workshop

1
Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC)
Synthesis Workshop

• Implications for SEARCH
• 5 October 2007
• Alexandria, Virginia

2
Workshop Purpose

• Assess the current state of HD research within
  ARCSS
• Share methods, data, and results
• To make advances in data integration
• Identify of commonalities, gaps, outliers, needs
  for moving towards formal synthesis and/or new
  synthesis efforts
• Foster synthesis-focused communication, and
  co-ordination

3
Participants

• HARC resides in ARCSS but many HARC-type projects
  and SEARCH-relevant human dimensions projects are
  funded through other venues at NSF (and
  elsewhere. i.e., NOAA)
• PIs from ARCSS, AON, BEST, IPY Observing and
  Understanding initiatives
• Other ARCSS investigators (past and present)
• ARCSS committee and HARC SSC members

4
Disciplinary Expertise

• Applied Anthropology
• Biochemistry
• Biological Oceanography
• Civil Engineering
• Computer Simulation Modeling
• Cyberinfrastructure
• Economics
• Enthnology
• Environmental Archaeology
• Environmental Biology
• Environmental Engineering
• Environmental Systems Analysis

• Geochemistry
• Geography Regional Development
• Geophysics
• Historical Climatology
• Wildlife Management
• Resource Management Science
• Sociology
• Natural Resources Regional Planning
• Paleoecology
• Physical Geography
• Terrestrial Ecology

5
Disciplinary Engagement
6
Projects (NSF only)

• Humans and Hydrology at High Latitudes (SASS I)
  Richard Lammers
• Heterogeneity and Resilience of Human-Rangifer
  Systems A Circumpolar Social-Ecological
  Synthesis (SASS I) Gary Kofinas
• Synthesis of Sea Ice, Climate, and Human Systems
  in the Arctic and Subarctic (SYNICE, SASS
  II)Astrid Ogilvie
• Environmental Variability, Bowhead Whale
  Distributions, and Iñupiat Subsistence Whaling
  Whaling Linkages and Resilience of an Alaskan
  Coastal System (SNACS) Craig Nicolson
• Nelson Island Natural and Cultural Knowledge
  Project (BEST) Ann Riordan
• ELOKA (IPY/AON) Henry Huntington
• Is the Arctic Human System Moving to a New State
  (IPY/AON Jack Kruse/Larry Hamilton)
• Bering Sea Sub-Network (IPY/AON) Victoria Gofman
• Employment and Sustainability in a Time of
  Transition Human Capital Development, Firm
  strategy, and Community in the Arctic (IPY/HPR)
  Hal Salzman
• Long Term Human Ecodynamics in the Norse North
  Atlantic Cases of Sustainability, Survival, and
  Collapse (IPY/HPR)Tom McGovern

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SEARCH-Relevant Observational Data

• Data Commonalities and Indexed Time Series
• Parallel time series across multiple data sets
  from present day water use to historic faming
• Demographics , wage labour, land use including
  high latitude agriculture, sea ice, some
  subsistence
• Local and regional scale
• Spatial and Temporal Coverage - Large data gaps
• Historic sea ice data and sea ice services for
  North Atlantic
• Historic land use data for Iceland and Greenland
• Recent water use for Alaska (key water
  indicators)
• Recent human/marine system interactions including
  sea ice and bowheads (north slope AK, Labrador,
  Iceland only)
• Some pan-Arctic but very limited in scope (i.e.
  human/rangifer systems)
• Multi-decadal to century-scale in some regions
• Annual and daily resolution in others
• In general, most time series very short or even
  snapshot quality

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Observational Needs

• Broader Human/Biophysical Domain Coverage
• Observations of ecosystem/human systems (outside
  the range of those currently collected and
  including physical/oceanographic, paleoecology)
• Observations relevant to understanding,
  mitigating and responding to arctic change,
  including changing pathways, regional scale
  predictability, economic development
• Observations of features most sensitivity to
  natural variability, including features of the
  human domain (i.e., seasonally dependent
  activities, food production and access, energy
  production and access, political in/stability
  etc.)
• For Example
• Oil infrastructure is built on the premise of the
  existing ice structure
• Increasing unpredictability in variability in
  access to water for ice road construction
• Impacts and feedbacks of alternative forms of
  access at regional and global scales
• Specialist vs. generalist systems and ability to
  respond to change in oil availability whether as
  a function of access to oil or shift in price
  etc.

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Understanding Objectives

• Understanding human interactions with and
  feedbacks to upper trophic levels and a wide
  range of ecosystem services
• Understanding responses and feedbacks to changes
  in seasonality (bio/physical domain)
• Predicting impacts and feedbacks from changing
  access to ecosystem services (competition,
  conflict etc.)
• Predicting impacts and feedbacks of arctic and
  global development activities
• On the natural system (i.e. increased pollution,
  change in human footprint on marine and
  terrestrial systems )
• On human system (i.e. rural/urban communication
  networks, food systems including high latitude
  agriculture and aquaculture developments,
  changing disease patterns, changing chemical
  transport pathways, shifting parasite loads
  etc.)

10
Understanding Needs

• Increased data integration and analysis of
  diverse data sets
• Common observational data collections protocols
• Implementation of advanced multivariate
  statistical approaches to data analysis
• Downscale modeling of feedbacks and interactions
• Ability to characterizing potential state changes
  (downscale)
• Ability to predict/understand potential
  alternative states across all domains (downscale)
• Ability to predict future conjunctions and
  trajectories of change in the context of global
  system
• Global teleconnections across domains

11
Responding to Change

• Major Challenges
• Identifying environmental signals in human
  behaviour
• Determining what kind of an environmental signal
  will begin to impact decision making at all
  levels (from individual to global government)
• Developing and communicating policy relevant
  scientific information
• Developing best practices for communication of
  model outputs (from GCM to downscale) and options
  for mitigation and adaptation to stakeholders at
  all levels
• Effecting behaviour change mitigation and
  adaptation