Carrying Capacity Definition

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Carrying Capacity Definition
Transition Training 2007
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Carrying capacity - notes

• Main points
• Carrying capacity is the population that can be
  sustained, at a given level of consumption, on a
  given area
• The global population passed the planets
  carrying capacity in about 1980
• Additional Notes
• What the carrying capacity is depends on how much
  natural resource is taken by humans, how much we
  allow for other species
• The current human population of the earth is 6.5
  billion. Best estimates are that earths long
  term sustainable population is 2 billion (if
  everyone had a low level of Western consumption
  and technology), and maybe less.
• Quote from Vandana Shiva the best way for a
  population to make good decisions about carrying
  capacity is for the people to own their land.

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Ecological footprint
Transition Training 2007
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Ecological footprint

• Wackernagel and Rees introduced the concept of
  ecological footprints.
• The idea can be applied to any item, person or
  activity
• The footprint is the total area required to
  sustainably supply all the energy and resources
  needed, and to absorb all the waste produced by
  the item, person or activity

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UK ecological capacity
Transition Training 2007
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UK Capacity notes

• Main Point
• The land available if you divide the surface area
  of the UK by the population gives each person an
  area of 2.4 ha.
• In fact the average footprint of those living
  here is 5.4 ha
• Additional points
• Most of this is for energy for all aspects of
  our lives
• Our footprint is about half a US person, and
  about 20 times that of a Bangladeshi or African.

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The UK living beyond our means
ghost acres taking from others
fossil acres taking from the past (ancient
sunlight)
draw down taking from the future
Transition Training 2007
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Overshoot

• Main Point
• If we are living beyond our means ecologically
  speaking How is that possible?
• Because we use three sources of extra inputs and
  waste removal
• Ghost acres. We import food, trees, clothing,
  minerals and other resources as raw or finished
  goods from other countries.
• Fossil acres. Our one-off legacy from the past,
  mainly in the form of fossil fuels for energy
  but also the most easily mined metals and other
  minerals
• Draw down. We use renewable resources without
  regard to the time for them to renew. We pass on
  an increasingly degraded world to our children
  with less water, forest, fish, wilderness, trees,
  species, land etc
• Additional Points
• Ghost acres can be seen as a post-colonial form
  of empire taking from those less powerful than
  us. The other two are like a business using up
  its capital as if it is income. The Last hours
  of ancient sunlight is a wonderful book about
  this.
• In exchange for importing goods and exporting
  waste to other countries? We provide services
  such as financial markets, and sell debt. 97 of
  the money circulating in the world is debt,
  issued by rich countries

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technology x affluence x population
Environmental impact
Environmental Impact
Transition Training 2007
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Environmental impact

• Environmental impact is the product of all three
  elements
• Higher levels of technology mean high levels of
  complexity which require high levels of
  infrastructure.
• Rich people have greater impact than those with
  less income or capital
• The more people there are the larger the impact
  this is the most obvious to most people, hence
  the emphasis on China and India as the problem
• Additional points
• A silicon chip is a very small device but its
  production requires a vast amount of energy input
  and environmental degradation mining and
  refining the minerals and creating very high
  precision labs to manufacture them
• Poor people spend more of their income on the
  basic necessities food, housing, basic
  transport which are more likely to be locally
  produced. They are less likely to have access to
  cars, changing fashions, imported goods (though
  the world trade system distorts this)

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Global inequality is growing
Transition Training 2007
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Global inequality

• Main points
• Each horizontal band shows 20 of the worlds
  population, the horizontal width shows their
  income
• The richest 20 earn 82 of the worlds income
  and the vast majority of this is earned by the
  top 10
• Additional points
• This trend is becoming more extreme.

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Inequality of energy use
1 USA 2 EU 13 Chinese
Transition Training 2007
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Inequality of energy use

• Main Point
• An American citizen consumes about 13 times as
  much energy as a Chinese person with Europe
  somewhere in the middle
• Additional points What about China?
• If 1bn Chinese still have a lower energy use (and
  environmental footprint) than 300m Americans, who
  is the problem?
• A high percentage of Chinese energy is used
  manufacturing goods for export to the west. Some
  estimate this at 40 60 of their energy.

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Fair shares
Is an unequal world sustainable?
If not, whose way of life needs to change?
Transition Training 2007
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Fair shares

• Main Point
• Large differences of wealth are themselves
  unsustainable the poor will always want to
  catch up.
• Whose lives need to change to resolve this
  situation?
• Additional points
• The same applies within a society having rich
  and poor living next to each other creates social
  division and tension
• Great divisions of wealth can only be sustained
  in the long term by means of control and violence
  this is the culture of empire

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Contraction and Convergence
Transition Training 2007
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Contraction and Convergence

• Main Point
• Contraction and convergence is a global political
  framework that addresses both social justice and
  the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
• Additional points
• It was devised by Aubrey Meyer, and has many
  supporters at high levels across the world
• The objective is fair shares that every
  person should ultimately have an equal share of
  the worlds carbon emissions
• There are arguments about how the burden of
  reducing emissions is shared between richer and
  poorer nations.

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A part of the solution?
Transition Training 2007
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Tradeable energy quotas

• Main Point
• It is a form of carbon rationing which provides a
  local or national framework that would ensure
  carbon reductions and give everyone a fair slice
  of the emissions cake.
• Additional Points
• Originally devised by David Fleming, this is a
  proposal for a national model to reduce carbon
  emissions
• Using market mechanisms pricing or a tax
  regime to lower emissions would be very socially
  divisive, effectively pricing an increasing
  proportion of the population out of energy use,
  transport and so on.
• There are stepped annual reductions allowing
  people and businesses time to plan their energy
  budget
• It includes a market for trading energy to allow
  flexibility

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A diagram of everything
Transition Training 2007
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A diagram of everything
Main Point The model of the industrialised growth
system is that there are unlimited resources as
inputs and an unlimited sink for receiving
outputs - waste Although we focus on climate
change and peak oil and some people have
questions about the analysis of these problems, a
closer look reveals that every part of this
system is in crisis. (following slides go into
each aspect in more detail)
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Resource issues
Transition Training 2007
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Resource Issues

• Main Point
• There are problems with most of the main
  resources for our society
• Transition focuses on energy peak oil and gas
  but other critical issues include
• Fresh water supply, especially drinking water is
  shrinking
• Collapsing fish stocks
• Widespread and continuing deforestation
• Decreasing land as well as soil erosion and
  decreasing fertility
• The peaks for many minerals are in sight e.g.
  peak uranium in 65 year at current use rates

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System issues
Transition Training 2007
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A diagram of everything

• Main points
• The system in the centre values high consumption
  rates and short product lifetimes assisted by
  changing fashions, technical advances and built
  in obsolescence,
• 99 of stuff we buy has been used up or thrown
  away within 6 months of its production
• The capitalist system has created a lot of
  growth, but distributes benefits very unequally.
• Additional Points
• We need an advertising industry that itself
  requires 2.5bn (in the UK alone) of resources to
  persuade us to buy this much stuff
• How is social inequality maintained?

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Output issues (waste)
Transition Training 2007
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Output issues (waste)

• Main points
• Climate change is the output issue dominating
  discussion currently. Yet other issues also
  affect our health and environment
• In nature there is no waste an output from one
  process is an input for another.
• Additional points
• Radioactive waste we still dont have
  satisfactory solutions for what we have already
  produced.
• There are problems with fertliser run off from
  intensive agriculture toxic substances in the
  food change many respiratory illnesses from air
  pollution and so on..

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The solution closing the loops
Transition Training 2007
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The solution closing the loops

• This slide shows the concept of thinking in terms
  of cycles
• Solutions to our disconnected resources in
  rubbish out system would include ideas such as
• Relocalisation the output from one system is an
  input somewhere else. E.g. waste card as biofuel
• Permaculture is a very helpful thinking tool for
  designing closed systems
• Indigenous living systems also show us how to
  close these loops
• You might like to think of some examples of
  closing loops..