Information and communications technologies and the economy

1
Information and communications technologies and
the economy

• Highlights from
• OECD Information Technology Outlook 2002 and
  Electronic commerce Business Impacts Project
• Graham Vickery ICCP

2
Information Technology Outlook 2002

• ICTs and their role in the economy
• IT firms
• Globalisation of the ICT sector
• The software sector
• E-commerce intensity

• ICT skills and employment
• ICT diffusion and the digital divide
• Technological trends
• IT policies in OECD countries
• Statistics

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ICT investment is a significant share of total
investment in OECD countriesShare of ICT in
total non-residential investment, 2000 ()
4
ICTs contribute to growth in producing and using
sectorsLabour productivity growth in selected
OECD countries (), 1995-99
5
ICT output declined rapidly from
late-2000Quarterly ICT shipments in the United
States, 1999-2001 Year-to-year growth in
percentage
6
but the upturn is close?Monthly
inventory-to-shipments ratio for computer and
electronic products United States, 1999 to
end-2001
7
ICT demand stable across regionsOECD spending by
region / country, 1992-2001
8
Telecommunications and software growingOECD ICT
spending by segment, 1992-2001
9
Non-OECD ICT demand growing rapidlyICT markets
in selected countries, 1992 and 2001billions of
USD and per cent growth
10
Trade in ICT products is dynamic ...Average OECD
imports and exports 1990-2000. 1990100
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.. and in some countries represents a large share
of GDPICT equipment exports / GDP, 1990 - 2000.
Percentages
12
Computers remain the largest traded good OECD
trade in ICT products, 1990-2000Billions current
USD
13
IT services trade is even more dynamic than ICT
goods trade ..Spending on IT services and trade,
1995-2000 1995100
14
ICT firms very active in MAs ..ICT and total
MAs, 1990-2000. 1990100
15
.. now mostly between ICT firmsShare of
horizontal MAs in the ICT sector, 1990-2000.
Percentages
16
ICT industries are RD-intensiveRD expenditure
in selected industries, 1999 or latest year
17
Software firms are most RD intensiveAverage RD
intensity in top ICT firms, 2000
18
ICT sectors take large share of VCShare of ICT
sectors in total venture capital (), 1995-2000
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ICT sector jobs increasingly importantShare in
business sector employment, 1999
20
Demand for ICT skills continues to
grow...Computer workers as a of all
occupations, 1995-1999
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.. and IT graduates are only part of the
supplyTertiary-level graduates in computing as a
of all fields of study
22
Software patents are growingPatents granted in
the US, 1990-99 1990100
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User needs for e-commerce indicators
24
Most businesses use the InternetProportion of
businesses with ten or more employees using the
Internet for purchasing and selling 2000
25
Despite high Internet use, transaction values
still lowInternet or electronic commerce sales
as percentage of industry sales
26
Many individuals use the InternetIndividuals
using and ordering goods and services over the
Internet, 2000
27
.. but retail sales are also lowInternet sales /
total revenue or sales of the retail sector, 2000
28
EBIP 220 firm case studiesNevertheless the
Internet is having large impacts on how firms
conduct businessExpected/actual e-commerce
impacts by business function
29
EBIP 220 firm case studies.. Reshaping many
business processesExpected/actual e-com process
impacts by business process
30
EBIP 220 firm case studies.. With generally
positive benefits
31
Technological trends

• Ubiquitous computing
• Open source
• IPv6
• Wireless
• Peer-to-peer