THE NORTH AMERICAN

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THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
Briefing for the CLIVAR SSC July 17, 2002 NAME
Science Working Group

• NAME Science and Implementation Plan
  http//www.joss.ucar.edu/nam
  e/

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U.S. CLIVAR ISSUES FOR NAME

• What is the relative balance of activities
  between CLIVAR and GEWEX?
• How will NAME contribute to the improvement of
  global climate models?
• How will advances in seasonal prediction be
  pursued?
• Has NAME developed partnerships between
  observationalists and climate modelers to improve
  the representation of key processes in coupled
  climate models?
• How will NAME address regional-scale (Tier 2) and
  continental-scale (Tier 3) warm-season
  precipitation variability and predictability?

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OUTLINE

• OVERVIEW
• What is NAME?
• Balance of Activities
• CLIVAR/PACS interests in NAME
• GEWEX/GAPP interests in NAME
• Project Structure/Timeline
• NAME MODELING AND DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES
• Predictive Capabilities / Science Issues /
  Observational Needs
• Global Modeling Observations Team
• Regional Modeling Observations Team
• Additional Issues and Opportunities
• Satellite Precipitation Estimation (TRMM/GPM) and
  NAME
• NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN
• Observational Network
• International Partnerships

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WHAT IS NAME?

• NAME is an internationally coordinated, joint
  CLIVAR GEWEX process study aimed at determining
  the sources and limits of predictability of warm
  season precipitation over North America.

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NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
HYPOTHESIS The NAMS provides a physical basis for
determining the degree of predictability of warm
season precipitation over the region.
Topographic and Sea-Land Influence

• OBJECTIVES
• Better understanding and
• simulation of
• warm season convective
• processes in complex terrain
• (TIER I)
• intraseasonal variability of
• the monsoon (TIER II)
• response of warm season
• circulation and precipitation
• to slowly varying boundary
• conditions (SST, soil
• moisture) (TIER III)
• monsoon evolution and
• variability (TIER I, II, III).

Intraseasonal Variability
Boundary Forcing?
YEAR (2000) 00 01 02 03 04 05
06 07 08 Planning -------------- Preparat
ions -------------- Data
Collection - - -
---------------- Principal Research
---------------------------------- Data
Management ----------------------
-------------------
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NAME IMPLEMENTATION

• Empirical and modeling studies that carry forward
  the joint PACS/GAPP Warm Season Precipitation
  Initiative (2000 onward), and initiate new
  elements.
• NAME Field Campaign (JJAS 2004) including
  build-up, field, analysis and modeling phases.

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NAME STATUS

• NAME has been endorsed by the WCRP/CLIVAR
  Variability of the American Monsoons (VAMOS)
  Panel as the North American Implementation of
  VAMOS.
• The US CLIVAR Pan American Panel has formally
  recommended that US CLIVAR join with US
  GEWEX/GAPP and VAMOS to implement NAME as a warm
  season process study of the North American
  Monsoon.
• NAME is a part of the GEWEX/GAPP Science and
  Implementation plan, with emphasis on topographic
  influences on precipitation, hydrology and water
  resources, and land-surface memory processes.

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CLIVAR / PACS NAMS Research

• Established enhanced PIBAL upper air sounding
  network in Mexico and Central America
• Developed improved satellite and in-situ surface
  climate, precipitation, and upper air data sets
• Implemented real time monsoon monitoring at CPC
• Investigated monsoon climatology and SST-monsoon
  relationships.

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PACS/GAPP North American Warm Season
Precipitation Projects

• Examining the relative influence of ocean and
  land surface processes
• Investigating the inverse relationship between
  precipitation in core monsoon region and over
  central US
• Studying antecedent winter influence on monsoon
  strength
• Evaluating influence of InterAmericas Seas warm
  pool variability
• Establishing enhanced raingauge network in
  Mexico.

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CLIVAR/PACS Interests in NAME

• To obtain a better understanding and more
  realistic simulation of the continental-scale NAM
  and its variability (emphasis on b.cs)
• To demonstrate that observed connections between
  the leading patterns of climate variability (e.g.
  ENSO, MJO) and the monsoon are captured in
  climate models
• To develop partnerships between NAME
  observationalists and model development experts
  to improve the representation of key processes in
  coupled climate models
• To advance the development of the climate
  observing system in southwestern North America
  and Central America.

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GEWEX / GAPP Components
Hydrometerology Orographic Systems
Predictability in Monsoonal Systems
Predictability in Land Surface Processes
Integration of Predictability
Into Prediction Systems
CEOP Data and Studies for Model Development
Testing of Models in Special Climate
Regimes
Use of Predictions for Water Resource Management
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(No Transcript)
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GAPP-NAME GOAL

• The GAPP-NAME goal is to determine the sources
  and limits of predictability of warm season
  precipitation over North America, with emphasis
  on the role of the land surface.

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GAPP INTERESTS IN NAME

• Fine resolution, gauge-only and satellite/gauge
  merged precipitation products (e.g. for LDAS,
  Regional Reanalysis and model validation
  studies)
• The role of land in the onset and intensity of
  the monsoon
• The role of NAMS in the variability of the water
  budget components over the US and Mexico
• Improved understanding of summer orographic
  precipitation processes.

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NAME PROJECT STRUCTURE

• 3-Pronged
• NAME Science Working Group (Science Focus)
• VAMOS / NAME Project Office (Field
  Implementation, Data Management, Logistics)
• NAME Program Management (Agencies that fund NAME)

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NAME SCIENCE WORKING GROUP

• NAME science is managed by a SWG that has been
  approved by the CLIVAR/VAMOS and CLIVAR Pan
  American panels in consultation with U.S. GEWEX.
• The SWG Develops and leads research to achieve
  NAME objectives
• The NAME SWG members
• Jorge Amador, Univ. of Costa Rica Rene Lobato,
  IMTA, Mexico
• Hugo Berbery, UMD José Meitín, NOAA/ NSSL
• Rit Carbone, NCAR Chet Ropelewski, IRI
• Miguel Cortez, SMN,Mexico Jae Schemm, NOAA/CPC
• Art Douglas, Creighton Univ. Siegfried
  Schubert, NASA
• Michael Douglas, NOAA/NSSL Jim Shuttleworth,
  UAZ
• Dave Gutzler, UNM Dave Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL
• Wayne Higgins, NOAA/CPC (Chair) Chidong Zhang,
  RSMAS

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VAMOS / NAME PROJECT OFFICE
(Leader C. B. Emmanuel)
1. Program Planning and Field Implementation
Provide the infrastructure for effective design
and implementation of the NAME Field Campaign,
including management of field operations. 2.
Scientific Data Management Provide all facets
of data collection and dissemination of
information for the NAME Program. 3.
Logistics Provide specialized logistics support
specifically for the effective implementation of
the NAME Field Campaign, including administrative
support, workshop coordination and outreach
(e.g. webpage, logo)
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NAME TIMELINE

• PHASE 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
  07 08
• Planning -------------
• Build-Up -------------
• Data Collection - - - - ------------
• Principal Research ----------------------------
  --
• Data Management -----------------------------
  --------
• Workshop/Conf.
• Planning (25th CDPW) X
• SWG (26th CDPW) X
• SWG (VPM5) X
• SWG (27th CDPW) X
• Science Workshop X
• Science Conference X

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NAME MODELING AND DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES

• GOALS
• Help specify a ramp-up strategy for the NAME
• Field Campaign.
• Provide guidance on needs and priorities for
  NAME
• field observations.
• Identify sustained observational requirements
  for
• climate models.
• Identify additional process studies necessary to
  reduce
• uncertainties in climate models.

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NAME TEAMS

• The predictive capabilities, science issues and
  observational needs of the global and
  regional/hybrid modeling communities are
  different. NEXT
• In response to this, NAME has organized two
  teams that preserve the modeling-observations
  linkage for both communities.
• This is a strategy to integrate modeling needs
  for improved warm season precipitation prediction
  into the planning for NAME observational efforts.
• The teams consist of observationalists and
  modelers with vested interests in specific
  high-priority issues.
• These teams are flexible and can evolve with the
  CPT concept.
• The NAME teams are small and relatively focused.
  Currently setting goals tied to the 2004 NAME
  Field Campaign.

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GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS

• PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES
• Some descriptive / predictive ability has been
  demonstrated in the core monsoon region, but with
  significant shortcomings.
• SCIENCE ISSUES
• To understand why some models give
  predictability in the core monsoon region.
• To diagnose / correct weaknesses.
• OBSERVATIONAL NEEDS
• Document basic climatology esp. precipitation
  at appropriate spatial / temporal scales
  (including the mean diurnal cycle).
• Give guidance on weaknesses in convective /
  boundary layer parameterizations radar /
  radiosondes / profilers.

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NAME GCM-OBS TEAM
In response to these needs, NAME has organized a
team (Siegfried Schubert, chair) that links NAME
observational efforts to climate model
development at GFDL/NASA/NOAA. This team
preserves the modeling-observations linkage for
NAME and forms the core of a "Climate Process
Team. Currently unfunded proposal
submitted. INITIAL FOCUS Warm Season Diurnal
Cycle over the US and Mexico in AGCMs PIs
Affiliation Key
role ------------------------- ----------
-------- Siegfried Schubert (lead)
NASA/GSFC lead and link to NAME Max Suarez
NASA/GSFC focus on
NSIPP model Arun Kumar
NOAA/CPC focus on NCEP model Isaac Held
NOAA/GFDL focus on
GFDL model
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NAME GCM-OBS TEAM
STRATEGY (1) Assess quality of diurnal cycle
in several AGCMs focus on convective / PBL
parameterizations. (2) Examine relationships
between diurnal circulation and monsoon
precipitation behavior of the
parameterizations (3) Assess the impact of
resolution (from 2 lat/lon to about ¼
lat/lon). (4) Carry out process-oriented
sensitivity experiments role of convection
and PBL in shaping the diurnal cycle. (5)
Exploit observations from NAME as well as ARM and
NASA Aqua (especially profile information) to
validate parameterizations. (6) Define new
observational requirements for improving the
parameterizations.
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Correlation between ensemble mean and observed
precipitation anomalies (JJA 65-97)
NCEP-MRF9
GSFC-NSIPP
CCM 3.2

• Conclusion global models have some worthwhile
  predictive capability in the core monsoon region,
  but we need to understand why.
• These models were driven with observed SST, so
  this is potential predictability given SST. It
  does not include any potential predictability one
  my gain from knowing the land surface boundary
  conditions.

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ANALYZED AND SIMULATED (850-MB WIND AND 200-MB
STREAMLINES)
Schemm, Zhou and Higgins (2002)
EXPERIMENT Ensembles of 10 / 6 month simulations
(May-Oct 1979-2000) with climatological (left)
and NCEP reanalysis II (right) soil moisture ICs
using NCEP/MRF May ICs. CONCLUSIONThe location
of the monsoon anticyclone is sensitive to
initialized soil moisture.
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REGIONAL / HYBRID MODELS

• PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES
• Significant descriptive / predictive ability in
  predictive mode.
• Substantial ability to document the NAM when
  operating in analysis mode.
• SCIENCE ISSUES
• To improve the representation of convective
  precipitation, especially in
• complex terrain.
• OBSERVATIONAL NEEDS
• Improved precipitation observations gauge,
  remote sensing that resolve the diurnal cycle,
  that sample the topographic influence and that
  are distributed and integrated.
• Investigate topography-induced circulations
  radar.
• Document the low-level wind / moisture fields
  radiosondes 4-6 times per day

NAMAP is the basis for a second NAME team
focused on the modeling-observations link for
the regional / hybrid models.
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NAME RMM-OBS TEAM

• STRATEGY
• Document ability of models to simulate the life
  cycle and intensity of the monsoon - NAMAP.
• Examine topographic influence on convective
  precipitation.
  behavior of the parameterizations
• Compare existing parameterization schemes and
  models using NAME observations for
  validation.
• (4) Improve physical parameterizations (e.g.
  convection/boundary layer)
• that influence precipitation, with a focus
  on defining the relationship of such
  parameterizations to topography.
• (5) Define new observational requirements for
  improving the parameterizations

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NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON ASSESSMENT PROJECT (NAMAP)

• STRATEGY
• NAMAP Phase I (D. Gutzler, Chair)
• Document ability of models to simulate the NAMS
  (JJAS 1990).
• Protocols (domain, boundary conditions, output
  format, simulated variables) defined by the
  modeling community during 2001.
• Hosted by the NAME Project Office at UCAR/JOSS
  http//www.joss.ucar.edu/name/namap
• NAMAP is currently unfunded and voluntary.
  Current Participants
• Liang (MM5, WRF) Schemm (NCEP
  MRF)
• Mo (RSM) Schubert (NASA NSIPP)
• Mitchell / Yang (ETA) Liz Ritchie / Dave Gutzler
  (MM5)
• Kanamitsu (ECPC/RSM) Peter Fawcett
• Fox Rabinovitz (NASA Hybrid)
• Hahmann (MM5)
• Castro / Pielke (RAMS)
• Preliminary results will be presented at 27th
  Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop,
  George Mason University.

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EDAS 925-hPa MOISTURE FLUX AND NASA 3-H
PRECIPITATION (JAS 1998-2001)

• The GOC LLJ may often be located over the
  coastal plain, not over the GOC. However, the LLJ
  may be mixed with the sea-breeze circulation, so
  semantics may be involved.
• This may be a useful hypothesis to test with the
  NAME in situ sounding network

Berbery et al. (2002)
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Cumulative Rainfall-Runoff in SMO Basin
Gochis and Shuttleworth (2002)
(MM5 simulations July 1999 Chen and Dudhia land
surface )
GRELL
KAIN-FRITSCH
precip
precip
runoff
runoff

• Surface runoff is more correlated with
  individual precip events of sufficient intensity
  than monthly total precipitation.
• This is a critical issue for those seeking to
  enhance monthly-to-seasonal predictability of
  water resources. NAME will investigate.

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KEY QUESTIONS FOR NAME TEAMS

• How well is the life cycle of the monsoon (onset,
  maintenance and demise) simulated and predicted?
  
• What are the links, if any, between the strength
  of the monsoon in SW North America and
  summertime precipitation over the central US?
• Can models reproduce the observed summertime
  precipitation in average years and years with
  ENSO influence?
• How is the evolution of the warm season
  precipitation regime related to the seasonal
  evolution of continental and oceanic boundary
  conditions?

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CONTINENTAL-SCALE PRECIPITATION PATTERN

• The continental-scale precipitation pattern is
  characterized by
• an out-of-phase relationship between the U.S.
  Southwest and the U.S. Great Plains.
• an in-phase relationship between the U.S.
  Southwest and the U.S. Southeast.
• Phase reversals in this pattern are related to
  the onset and decay of the monsoon

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ONSET OF THE SUMMER RAINS(July June 1971-2000)
CHANGE IN OBSERVED PRECIPITATION MM DAY-1
CHANGE IN 200 hPA WIND MS-1 AND DIV10-6 S-1
H
Higgins et al. (1997)

• Changes in the tropospheric circulation and
  divergence (mean vertical motion) are broadly
  consistent with changes in the continental-scale
  precipitation pattern
• SW enhanced DIV, VVEL and PRECIP
• GP suppressed DIV, VVEL and PRECIP

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INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY(OBSERVATIONS)

• Simultaneous
• The continental-scale precipitation pattern is a
  continental-scale pattern of interannual
  variability. Anomalously wet (dry) summers in the
  Southwest U.S. tend to be accompanied by dry
  (wet) summers in the U.S. Great Plains.
• Antecedent
• Wet (dry) summers in the Southwest U.S. often
  follow winters characterized by dry (wet)
  conditions in the Southwest U.S. and wet (dry)
  conditions in the Northwest U.S.

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COMPOSITE MEAN PRECIPITATION OVER AZ AND NM FOR
WET, DRY AND ALL MONSOONS (1963-2000)
Higgins et al. (1998)
Note No signal
Higgins e t al. (1998)
ONSET
WINTER
SPRING
SUMMER
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COMPOSITE SUMMER (JJAS) 200-MB WIND, 200-MB
STREAMFUNCTION AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES
Higgins et al. (1999)
Shading indicates anomalies greater than 0.25
mm day-1
10

• El Niño features
• upper-level easterly wind anomalies southward
  shifted ITCZ
• upper-level anticyclonic couplet enhanced local
  Hadley circulation
• lower-level westerly wind anomalies dry
  conditions over Mexico

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ADDITIONAL ISSUES / OPPORTUNITIES

• POTENTIAL ROLE OF NAME IN TRMM/GPM
• ISSUE
• Satellite estimates of precipitation in complex
  terrain are often inaccurate.
• OPPORTUNITIES
• NAME will collect new precipitation data gauge,
  radar, so it is a campaign of opportunity for
  TRMM and GPM validation of satellite estimates of
  precipitation in complex terrain.
• TRMM/GPM can leverage NAME observations for
  algorithm development.
• OBSERVATIONAL NEEDS
• Orographic influences on precipitation gauge,
  radar.
• Radar estimates of precipitation over the Gulf
  of California and nearby areas of the Pacific.

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NAME FIELD CAMPAIGN
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BUILD-UP PHASE

• (1) Establish VAMOS / NAME Project Office for
  design and implementation of the NAME Field
  Campaign, data management, and logistics support.
• (2) Establish NAME cooperative teams for global
  model-observations and regional model
  observations linkages.
• (3) Plan, integrate and implement NAME networks
  and conduct site surveys.
• Ramp-up activities in the region.
• (4) Build National and International NAME
  Partnerships.
• (5) Develop an effective education and training
  program in the region (US activities,
  International activities).

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NAME ENHANCED OBSERVATION PERIOD (JJAS 2004)

1. Conduct EOP for a period of 4 summer months
   (JJAS) to coincide with the peak monsoon season
   and maximum diurnal variability.
2. Conduct Intensive Observing Period (IOP) of up to
   one month (mid-July to mid-August) within the EOP
   during which time all networks are operational.

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RAINGAUGE NETWORK
Shuttleworth, Watts, Garatuza-Payan, Gochis (2001)

• 90 new event logging gauges, indicated by red
  and blue dots, in SW-NE transects to sample
  gradients in rainfall from the GOC to the SMO.

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NAME RAINGAUGE NETWORK DESIGN(OBJECTIVES)

• To improve estimates of the diurnal cycle and
  topographic variation of precipitation in the
  core region of the NAM.
• To facilitate hydrologically relevant diagnostic
  studies, including
• intensity-duration-frequency analyses
• rainfall accumulation spatial structure
• spatial structure of mean rainfall
• To facilitate modeling studies that use the new
  data to investigate, validate and improve the
  parameterization of precipitation processes in
  models.

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DIURNAL VARIABILITY
(1) The amplitude of the diurnal cycle in the
core monsoon region is larger than the amplitude
of the annual cycle. (2) There are large-scale
shifts in the regions of deep convection during
the day from over land to over water. (3)
There is large intraseasonal and interannual
variability of the diurnal cycle, but it is not
well understood. (4) Improved monitoring and
modeling of the diurnal cycle will go a long way
towards improved warm season precipitation
forecasts not just for Tier 1, but for Tiers 2
and 3.
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NAME SIMPLE RAINGAUGE NETWORK
Current site in CPC real-time daily
Precipitation analysis
Transects of simple raingauges

Approximate regions for network enhancements
Lobato et al. (2002)

• NW-SE transects are needed to help resolve Gulf
  surge / precipitation relationships

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CURRENT SOUNDING NETWORK

• SMN Contribution to NAME
• Operate all once-daily observation sites at 12
  UTC (2003-04)
• Operate twice-daily observations (May-Nov) in 8
  sites (2003-04)
• Add 2 sites (Altamira and Tapachula) (2003)
• Maintenance of the upper-air sounding network
  (2003-04)
• Observer training (2003-04)

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NAME RADIOSONDE / PIBAL NETWORK
Douglas et al. (2002)
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MOISTURE BUDGET OF THE INTRA AMERICAS SEA
Radiosonde
NCDC Buoys
PACS SONET
Zhang et al 2001

• Estimates of the moisture budget of the IAS
  region are in progress using this network, which
  is routinely available (2x daily) during the NH
  warm season.
• These estimates will be combined with new
  estimates over the core (and peripheral) monsoon
  regions (based on a new network of in situ
  soundings) to quantify the Q flux-precipitation
  relationship over the entire region (inc. U.S.).

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PROPOSED RADAR-PROFILING-SOUNDING NETWORK
Carbone et al. 2002
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NAME RADAR-PROFILING-SOUNDING(OBJECTIVES)

• To describe the daily evolution of
  ordinaryconvective rainfall over the SMO, the
  GOC coastal plain and the southern Gulf region.
• To describe the principal mechanisms that force
  organized mesoscale rainfall systems within the
  diurnal cycle (organization to larger scales).
• To clarify relationships between convection over
  the SMO and Q-flux from the GOC and the GOM.
• To observe moisture surges and associated LLJs
  in the GOC in the broader regional context of
  tropical easterly waves and mid-latitude westerly
  trough passages.
• To clarify relationships between GOC moisture
  surges and precipitation.

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Proposed Use of the R/V Ronald H. Brown During
NAME Steve Rutledge, Walt Petersen, and Rob
Cifelli Department of Atmospheric Science,
Colorado State University

• Instruments
• Radar (Scanning C-band Doppler Vertically
  pointing Ka-band Doppler)
• Rawinsonde
• 915 MHz wind profiler
• DIAL/Mini-MOPA LIDAR
• Multi-spectral radiometers
• Air-sea flux system
• Meteorological observation (T,RH, P), rain gauges
  and ceilometer
• Oceanographic measurements including SST, CTD and
  ADCP

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Proposed Location of the R/V Ron Brown During
NAME IOP

• Addressing NAME Tier-1 Science
• Surge origins
• Sources of moisture and transports
• Precipitation statistics including diurnal cycle
• Structure of southern end of GC LLJ
• Surge coupling to easterly waves
• Surface fluxes/Ocean coupling

Figures adapted from Fuller and Stensrud (MWR,
2000) and Brenner (MWR, 1974)
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RESEARCH AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS(OBJECTIVES)

1. To measure horizontal gradients associated with
   low-level circulation features.
2. To measure along-flow and cross-flow variations
   of mesoscale diurnal variations.
3. To provide over-ocean depiction of the
   synoptic-scale conditions associated with
   moisture surge generation.
4. To sample orographic modulation of precipitation.

(Douglas et al. Smull et al.)
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INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS

• Mexican Weather Service
• Meteorological Infrastructure
• 79 synoptic stations
• 16 radiosonde sites
• 60 automated weather stations (15 more in 2003)
• 12 radars (4 in northwestern Mexico)
• Historical and real-time data
• Working group during NAME (meteorologists,technici
  ans)
• Joint Forecast Center
• (2) Universities and Institutions in NW Mexico
• (Univ. of Vera Cruz, Univ. of Guadalajara,
  UNAM, IMTA, CICESE)
• Equipment, personnel, transportation, data
  collection, research
• (3) Central American Collaborative Interests
• Costa Rica-USA (CRUSA) Foundation supports
  bilateral projects

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JOINT MEXICO-US FORECAST CENTER

• Longevity?
• Short term focus briefings for NAME Field
  Campaign as needed
• Long term focus joint US-Mexico products
• Where?
• NW Mexico
• Collocated with existing radar (e.g. Obregon?)
• (3) Products?
• Forecasts (e.g. North American monthly, seasonal)
• Monitoring (e.g. North American drought monitor)
• Assessments (e.g. hazards)
• (4) Other functions of Center
• Training for Meteorologists
• Personnel exchange
• (5) Affiliation?
• CNA/SMN
• CICESE
• UNAM
• Polytechnic Institute
• Center SEP CONACYT (Federal Government)

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NAME EDUCATION / TRAINING

• (1) Exchange Program between U.S. NWS and Mexican
  SMN
• Central / South American desk at NCEP
• (2) Central American Training Course (M. Douglas)
• Training on climate, weather forecasting and
  observations
• Designing regional meteorological / climate
  services
• Workshop held in July 2001 attracted participants
  from 12 countries
• (3) NWS COMET Course on Climate Variability (W.
  Higgins)
• Available to Mexican / Central American
  participants in NAME
• (4) Central American Collaborative Interests (J.
  Amador)
• Costa Rica-USA (CRUSA) Foundation supports
  bilateral projects
• (5) Linkages to human dimensions / applications
  (A. Ray)

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NAME DELIVERABLES

• Coupled climate models capable of predicting
  North American monsoon variability
• diurnal variability short-term goal
• monthly to seasonal variability long-term goal
• Infrastructure to observe and monitor the North
  American monsoon system
• More comprehensive understanding of North
  American summer climate variability and
  predictability
• Contributions to the assessment of climate
  variability and long-term climate change in the
  North American monsoon region
• Strengthened multinational scientific
  collaboration across the Americas.

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NAME PERFORMANCE MEASURES

• (1) Summer Precipitation Forecasts
• Diurnal cycle / daily mean (monsoon onset)
• Performance Measure area mean
  precipitation in AZNM, NWMEX, SWMEX
• Performance Goal improved
  comparisons/validation against observations
• Seasonal (monsoon intensity)
• Performance Measure Heidke skill score
  for US precipitation used at CPC
• Performance Goal keep the skill score on
  an upward trend
• (2) New Products
• Forecasts (e.g. North American monthly, seasonal
  P and T)
• Monitoring (e.g. North American drought monitor)
• Assessments (e.g. hazards)
• Performance Goal address societally
  relevant needs