Monica Bansal and Michael Eichler

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Progress on CLRP Aspirations What Would it
Take? Scenarios
TPB SCENARIO STUDY

• Monica Bansal and Michael Eichler
• Department of Transportation Planning
• Presentation to the TPB Technical Committee
• December 5, 2008

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The Two New Scenarios
CLRP Aspirations
What Would it Take?
Draws on past studies and public outreach to
provide an ambitious yet attainable vision of
land use and transportation for the 2010 CLRP
update and to eventually serve as an
unconstrained long range plan.
Starts with COG regional CO2 goals and assesses
what scales and combinations of interventions
will be necessary to achieve the goal for the
transportation sector.
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Study Timeline
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The Two New Scenarios
CLRP Aspirations
What Would it Take?
Draws on past scenarios (5 transportation/land
use scenarios and 2 value pricing scenarios) to
provide an ambitious yet attainable vision of
land use and transportation for the 2010 CLRP
update.
Starts with CO2 goals (80 below 2005 levels in
2050 and 20 reduction by 2020) and assesses what
scales and combinations of interventions will be
necessary to achieve the goal.
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The Starting Point

• Baseline
• Round 7.1 Cooperative Forecast
• 2008 CLRP
• RMAS Land Use/Transportation Scenarios
• More Households Scenario
• Households In Scenario
• Jobs Out Scenario
• Region Undivided Scenario
• Transit-Oriented Development Scenario
• Value Pricing Scenarios
• DC and Parkways Restrained
• Public Outreach/Feedback on Previous Scenarios

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Building the Scenario
Goal To move jobs and housing closer together to
create highly accessible and developed areas, and
achieve more efficient transportation systems
Land Use Decisions
Supportive Transit
Pricing Options

• Address congestion through pricing of new and/or
  existing lanes
• Provide alternatives through enhanced transit

• Concentrating projected growth in activity
  centers and existing/planned transit stations
• Consistent review and refinement by planning
  directors

• Use menu of transit options from past scenarios
• Connect activity centers
• Review by Regional Bus Subcommittee

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Scenario Criteria

• Within Reach
• 1. Land use shifts should be within reach for
  inclusion in the COG Cooperative Forecast
• 2. Transportation projects should be
  financially within reach through tax revenues,
  developer contributions, or pricing.

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CLRP Aspirations Land Use Component
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CLRP Aspirations Transportation Component
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Existing System
Existing system of activity centers and high
quality transit shows mis-match. Many transit
stations without activity and many activity
centers without high-quality transit.
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CLRP Projects
The transit projects in the CLRP work to address
some of these concerns.
Bi-County Transitway
Corridor Cities Transitway
Dulles Metrorail
Columbia Pike Streetcar
Anacostia Streetcar
Crystal City/Potomac Yard Transitway
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Recommended RMAS Projects
Additional projects evaluated under RMAS should
be carried forward, with minor modification to
provide transit service to additional activity
centers.
Georgia Ave Transitway
Extend Purple Line to New Carrollton
VRE Extension to Haymarket
US 1 Transitway
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Studied Network of Variably Priced Lanes
A value pricing study completed by the TPB in
February of 2008 evaluated a regional network of
variably priced lanes, made up of new capacity
and selected existing facilities.
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BRT Network Recommended for Scenario Study
A regional network of BRT operating mostly on the
priced lanes will provide high-quality transit
service to nearly all activity centers in the
region.
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BRT to Provide Rail-Like Level of Service
BRT stations will provide many features to
decrease boarding time

• All-door, level boarding
• Off-board payment
• Room for 60 articulated multi-door buses

Other Operating Details

• 12 minute peak headways
• 30 minute off-peak headways
• 45 MPH on priced lanes
• 15 MPH on priority corridor network
• Circulator service in activity centers

The Shirlington Transit Station in Arlington, VA.
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Full Scenario Transit Network
This network will provide another layer of
high-quality transit on top of existing and
proposed transit services.
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Transportation Component of the CLRP Aspirations
Scenario
Summary

• Evaluates a regional network of priced lanes that
  serves as the right-of-way for a high-quality Bus
  Rapid Transit (BRT) network.
• Uses previously studied transportation facilities
  as starting points
• 2008 CLRP Baseline
• Regional network of variably priced lanes
• RMAS transit
• Focuses accessibility improvements on regional
  activity centers
• Direct access ramps from priced lanes to activity
  centers
• BRT stations serve activity centers, Metro
  stations, park-and-ride lots
• Include RMAS projects that provide access to
  activity centers
• New activity centers proposed Fort Detrick,
  Wheaton, Westphalia and Fort Belvoir
• Makes use of WMATA Priority Corridor Network
  (PCN) to provide service to the urban core.

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The Two New Scenarios
CLRP Aspirations
What Would it Take?
Draws on past scenarios (5 transportation/land
use scenarios and 2 value pricing scenarios) to
provide an ambitious yet attainable vision of
land use and transportation for the 2010 CLRP
update.
Starts with CO2 goals (80 below 2005 levels in
2050 and 20 reduction by 2020) and assesses what
scales and combinations of interventions will be
necessary to achieve the goal.
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Setting up the WWIT Scenario
Goal To reduce CO2 emissions by 10 in 2012, and
20 and 80 below 2005 levels in 2012, 2020 and
2050 respectively
3 categories of strategies to reduce mobile CO2
emissions
USE of FLEET
FLEET
Fuel Efficiency
Fuel Carbon Intensity
Travel Efficiency
Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel
behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve
operational efficiency
Beyond CAFE standards currently 35 mpg by
2020
Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen,
electricity)
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Analyzing the WWIT Scenario
3 categories of analysis for each strategy

1. Effectiveness
2. Cost-effectiveness
3. Timeframe for Implementation

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What can we do with the fleet?
Fuel Efficiency
Fuel Carbon Intensity
Travel Efficiency
Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel
behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve
operational efficiency
Beyond CAFE standards currently 35 mpg by
2020
Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen,
electricity)
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What can we get with CAFE?
2010 Travel and CO2 Emissions 2010 Travel and CO2 Emissions 2010 Travel and CO2 Emissions 2010 Travel and CO2 Emissions 2010 Travel and CO2 Emissions
8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area

  VMT (Billions) - Annual CO2 Emissions (Mil. Annual Tons)
Passenger Cars 19.06 47 6.76 24
Light Duty Trucks (SUVs, etc) 18.94 46 15.38 56
Heavy Duty (Trucks, Buses, etc) 2.94 7 5.46 20
Total 40.95 100 27.60 100


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Characteristics of the Regions Vehicle Fleet
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What can we do with the fleet?
Fuel Efficiency
Fuel Carbon Intensity
Travel Efficiency
Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel
behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve
operational efficiency
Beyond CAFE standards currently 35 mpg by
2020
Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen,
electricity)
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Forecast Characteristics of the Regions Vehicle
Fleet
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How do we use the fleet? (and how can this change)
Fuel Efficiency
Fuel Carbon Intensity
Travel Efficiency
Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel
behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve
operational efficiency
Beyond CAFE standards currently 35 mpg by
2020
Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen,
electricity)
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How We Use the Fleet, An Example
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Analyzing the WWIT Scenario
3 categories of analysis for each strategy

1. Effectiveness
2. Cost-effectiveness
3. Timeframe for Implementation

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Cost-effectiveness
How can we begin to prioritize strategies?
Initial analysis of cost-effectiveness of
Transportation Emissions Reduction Measures (
per ton of CO2 reduced)


Number Category Description CO2 Cost Effectiveness Range
1 Telecommute Programs 10 to 40
2 Signal Optimization 30 to 50
3 Park Ride Lots (Transit and HOV) 100 to 500
4 Transit Service improvements 100 to 800

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Analyzing the WWIT Scenario
3 categories of analysis for each strategy

1. Effectiveness
2. Cost-effectiveness
3. Timeframe for Implementation

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Timeframe for Implementation
Early action is essential to meet the goals
Example Reductions for Measures
While all 3 example measures reduce 100 units of
CO2 in 2020, the cumulative emissions reductions
from 2011-2020 differ based on the time required
for implementation and realization of benefits.
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Products
Sliders metaphor
Different combinations of interventions can be
assessed for cost-effectiveness and feasibility.
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