Population Scale

1
Population Scale

• Population biology and control of infectious
  disease
• Long history of work on nonlinear epidemic
  dynamics
• Many applications to policy in control of human
  and animal disease

IMAG
2
Population Scale

• a) How modeling has impacted epidemiology
• basic research Modeling (along with
  statistical analyses of rich epidemiological data
  sets) captures the essence of the epidemic
  clockwork in many settings.

IMAG
3
Population Scale

• Key role of individual and population
  heterogeneities
• Eg Measles in the UK and the impact of baby booms
  and schooling (Grenfell et al Nature 2001)

IMAG
4
Population Scale

• Epidemics, models and policy (examples)
• Control of measles and rubella
• HIV epidemic
• BSE/CJD
• The UK Foot and Mouth epidemic of 2001
• Antibiotic resistance
• Assessing threats and possible control of
  smallpox
• Pandemic influenza, both pre- the current
  epidemic (mainly via the NIH/NIGMS MIDAS Program)
  and in the current pH1N1 pandemic.
• Key ingredients The right data and biology
  understanding uncertainty realistic
  expectations several voices

IMAG
5
Population Scale

• b) To what extent has the broader research
  communities accepted modeling as a critical tool
  for driving research or policy?
• Works especially if models seek to engage with
  biology (grant schemes can help this, eg MIDAS,
  NSF/NIH Fogarty EID Program)
• However, many inroads still to make still a
  basic skepticism in some quarters about utility
  of modeling

IMAG
6
Population Scale

• c) How far can we go? Huge potential, but
• Theorists not always integrated into mainstream
  research (as physicists or engineers would be).
• ..this can cause obvious problems in
  communicating results, as well as limiting
  realism of models and opportunities for model
  validation if key data sets are neglected.
• More quantitative training would obviously help,
  especially in developing a feel for whats under
  the hood of models.
• Modeling disciplines in biomedicine still too
  siloed, especially across integrative scales...

IMAG
7
Population Scale

• Major research challenges eg integrating
  epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of
  pathogens
• Significant recent progress, eg immune escape in
  seasonal influenza. But problem is essentially a
  cross-scale one (from viral and immune molecules,
  through transmission to epidemic dynamics and
  global viral phylogenies

IMAG
8
Population Scale

• Major issue gaps in cross-scale data
• Eg relating genetic change of influenza to
  transmission rate via immune escape (Park et
  al Science 2009)

IMAG