December Noreaster, LBI, 121993

1
Sea-level ChangeShould I Sell My Shore House?
School of Arts and Sciences
The Shore
Hurricane Isabelle, Avalon, 9/18/2003
http//www.geocities.com/jfm292/LBI92Storm/lbi92st
orm1.htm

• December Noreaster, LBI, 12/1993

View of NY harbor, ice-free world (73 m rise)
2
Clip from An Inconvenient Truth
3
Flooding of NYC An Inconvenient Truth
If Greenland broke up and meltedthis is what
would happen to Manhattan. They can measure this
precisely, just as the scientists could predict
precisely how much water would breach the levee
in New Orleans the WTC memorial would be
underwater. Al Gore
NYC after 5 m (15 ft) sea-level rise
time to sell??
Screenshot from the movie
4
Should I Sell My Shore House?
How long to achieve Gore World 5 m rise? sea
level 125,000 y ago IPCC 2001 300-700 years
2007 700-1000 yr New Greenland surging, much
sooner, but gtgt100 yr
Otto-Bleisner et al. (2006) simulation
2007 2300 2700 3100 3800 AD
125,000 y ago last interglacial
The future IPCC (2007)
5
How long to achieve Gore World 5 m rise?
3000
Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change IPCC (2001)
6
Should I Sell My Shore House?

Waretown, NJ
J. Hansen 9/13/2006 NYTimes Greenland melting
puts NYC underwater NJ PIRG 1/18/2007 With
global warming and sea-level rise, the NJ shore
will easily disappear within 100 years"
7
5 m
8
Higher CO2 Anthropogenic Influence
The Keeling curve

What exit? Looking for America on the NJ turnpike
Observatory at top of Mauna Loa, the big Island
9
Higher CO2 Anthropogenic Influence

10
Higher CO2 Predicted Global Warming
IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001
Synthesis Report

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007
11
Historical Link CO2, Global Warm, Sea level
12
Sea-Level Forecast IPCC 2001 2007
40 cm (1.25 ft) rise by 2100, 1 m (3.3 ft) by
2200 IPCC 2001 error estimate 20-80 cm IPPC
2007 error 20-60 cm (does not include ice sheet
melting)
2007
2001
http//www.realclimate.org/images/sealevel_1.jpg
13
Sea-Level Measurements

• Satellite altimetry
• Tide gauges
• Coastal sediments
• lt 20,000 yr
• Reef terraces
• lt 130,000 yr
• Oxygen isotopes a proxy record
• increasing uncertainty 125,000-7,000,000 yr
• Sequence stratigraphy
• lt 1,000,000,000 yr

instruments / modern
rock record / ancient
14
Global Sea Level Is Rising

• 20th Century 1.8 mm/yr tide gauge data
• cm every 100 y
• 7 inches every 100 y
• 0.6 ft every 100 y
• Satellite data
• 2.80.4 mm/yr 93-03
• 11 inches every 100 y
• 3.20.4 mm/yr 93-06 best current est.
• 12.6 inches every 100 y

15
Why Is Global Sea Level Is Rising Today?

Thermal Expansion ocean has gained heat Warmer
water less dense global 20th century warming
0.6C 1.6 mm/yr sea-level rise
Melting Glaciers Ice Caps Melting land ice
adds to ocean volume, but not sea ice
Alpine
IPCC2001
16
Why Is Global Sea Level Is Rising Today?

Melting Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps Alpine
glaciers 0.6 mm/yr Greenland Ice Cap IPCC2001
near 0 Cazenave Nerem (2004) gt0.15 mm/yr New
data increased from 0.23 mm/y 1996 to 0.57 mm/y
2005 (Sterns Hamilton 2007)
.
17
Today Global Sea Level Is Rising
Tide gauge data 20th Century 1.8 mm/yr 7
inches every 100 y Satellite data, 93-06
3.30.4 mm/yr 12.6 inches every 100 Warmer
oceans 1.6 mm/yr Alpine 0.6
mm/yr Greenland gt0.6 mm/yr Total 2.8 mm/yr ?
0.5 mm/yr Undetected warming or accelerated
melting
Kilimanjaro
http//www.ec.gc.ca/EnviroZine/images/Issue48/melt
_e_l.gif
18
We are tracking high end predictions
Not a Gorian 5 m, but not IPCC2007 4020 cm Best
estimate gt80 cm global Rahmsdorf et al.
(2007) max. 1 m? 2m?? MWP1a maximium 20-40 mm/yr
Satellite Altimeter
IPCC
Tide Gauges
Rahmstorf, Cazenave, Church, Hansen, Keeling,
Parker and Somerville (Science 2007)
19
Sea Level Forecast
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's
about the future. Niels Bohr
20
Global, Regional, and Local Effects

• NY/NJ/DE region
• higher sea-level rise
• Processes
• Global (eustatic) rise
• 1.8 mm/yr
• Regional subsidence flexural unloading
  Laurentide removal
• 1 mm/yr
• Local subsidence
• due to water withdrawal compaction
• 1 mm/yr

Modified after Psuty and Collins (1986)
21
Impacts of Sea-level Rise
Venice Poster Child
Atlantic City, NJ
Piazza San Marco acqua alta
Ammerman McClennen 2000
http//img129.exs.cx/img129/1714/atlantis6lu.jpg
http//www.nature.com/news/2005/050718/full/news05
0718-13.html
22
Venice Rapid Sinking (50-70) Groundwater
Withdrawal
Gatto Carbognin (1981)
23
Bangladesh 17 million displaced 22nd century
Ammerman McClennen 2000
24
What about the Jersey Shore?
Ammerman McClennen 2000
25
Sea-level Rise Impacts
Atlantic City 1.0 m rise Red/yellow Atlantis
Titus and Richman, Climate Research, CR
18205-228 (2001)
Titus and Richman, Climate Research, CR
18205-228 (2001)
26
Carteret Is., Vanuatu, Tuvalu, and the Maldives
27
1.5 m Sea-level Rise Impacts U.S. Coast
1.5 m rise causes beach to migrate 1500 m 11000
gradient
Titus and Richman, Climate Research, CR
18205-228 (2001)
28
Howzibout the Jersey Shore?
Ammerman McClennen 2000
29
Effects of Sea-Level Rise Land Loss
Function of rise and gradient (11000) rollback
(Brule rule 1300) Global rise by 2100 40 cm
(1.2 ft) 10-20 cm subsidence ?Worst case
scenario by 2100 1 m (3 ft) Would result in a
natural movement beach 900 ft Fight back with
replenishment ( and often does not work)
Estimated land area susceptible to inundation at
case study area, Cape May Point, New Jersey.
After Cooper et al. (2005)
30
Long Beach Island, NJ
Human stabilized
400 m
Natural movement
Courtesy N. Psuty
31
Fight back with replenishment
Courtesy N. Psuty
32
Beach NourishmentSurf City, NJ 2007
http//loveladies.org/news.php
http//graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/05/15/nyr
egion/190-sand-03.jpg
33
Fight back with beach nourishment?
Sea Bright before/after at right Nourishment
lasts 0 to 7 years Generally 90 lt 5 yrs (Pilkey
Dixon, 96) Future is now at Deal, NJ 2008
overflight
Sea Bright
Fight back with replenishment
Deal
http//www.sptimes.com/2002/05/12/Worldandnation/Y
ou_bought_this_beach.shtml
34
Effects of Sea-Level Rise Coastal Flooding
Coastal marshes cannot retreat as they must to
survive sea-level rise
Increased effects of storm surges
100 yr
http//hypercomp.net/personnel/cmr/gallery/campics
/NJ05/pageimg_9850.jpg.html
Ammerman McClennen 2000
Left 100 year storm October 12, 2005
35
The Bayside is Vulnerable
My shore house is an island during three
100-year storms Hallloween 91, Dec. 92, Oct.
05
36
Effects of Sea-Level Rise Coastal Flooding
Increased effects of storm surges By 2100, the
equivalent of the moderate 1/87 storm (5-year
flood) will have the flooding of a 100 year
storm
After Cooper et al. (2005) and Psuty (1986)
Ammerman McClennen 2000
37
Lessons from the Southern Louisiana
2.6
9
16.5
11.9
9.4
14.9
11.6
http//coastal.er.usgs.gov/LA-subsidence/figure1.h
tml
Top land loss in yellow 2.6-16.5 mm/year
subsidence vs. NJ 2-3 mm/year today or 6 mm/y by
2100
38

Harvey Cedars, NJ 3/62 Ash Wednesday Storm
39
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Harvey Cedars, LBI
41
The last 18,000 years (last glacial-now)

http//www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/clisci100k.html
Emery (1969)

Barbados Acropora palmata (fossil sunshine) 120 m
lowstand 18 ka Fairbanks, 1989 Rate up to 20
m/1000 yr (20 mm/yr _at_ 14 ka)
Surf City Shipbottom
42
Geological Methods to Measure Sea Level
Direct measurement coastal sediments
Last 18 ka (last glacial-now) emerged
shorelines submerged beaches, bars, deltas,
freshwater peat
Emery (1969)
Problem samples not in place peats in situ,
not shells
43
Barbados Curve
Barbados lowstand Acropora palmata (fossil
sunshine) 120 m below present day at 18 ka
(Fairbanks, 1989, 1990) 120 m 5 m lowstand
Last Glacial Maximum Rate up to 3210 m/1000
yr (2 cm/yr _at_ 14 ka MWP1a) Being tested in Tahiti
by IODP Exp. 310
44
By sampling Acropora palmata (Elkhorn coral) in a
series of borehole and dating this "fossil
sunshine" (lives in lt 5m water), Fairbanks
obtained a sea level record for the last 18 k.y.
LGM at 120 m 5 m
45

Sea-level Risepast 5000 y
New Jersey Delaware Southern New England 1.8
mm/y global vs. regional rise? Peltier this
region experiencing 1 mm/y subsidence Eustatic
estimate 0.8 mm/y QED lt0.8 mm/y
pre-anthropogenic rise only 15-25 of modern,
rest due to human influence
46
Global Rise

• Fairbanks (1989) based on Caribbean reefs (Lighty
  et al.)
• 1.1 mm/y 5000-200 yBP
• But what is global?
• Models (e.g., Lambeck et al.) suggest 0.5-0.6
  mm/y of Caribbean rise is global, rest is
  glacio-hydroeustasy deforming geoid
• QED 0.5-0.8 mm/y pre-anthropogenic rise only
  15-25 of modern, rest due to human influence

47
Sea-level Rise past 5000 y
Is sea-level rise today part of natural cycle?
Prior to 1850 0.750.25 mm/yr 20th Century
1.8 mm/yr Today 3.2 mm/yr Therefore, the
natural background rise only 15-25 of modern,
rest due to human influence
Left Miller et al. (in press)
48
Peltier (1997) isostatic model
49
Measure directly from atolls and reef terraces
Barbados lowstand Acropora palmata (fossil
sunshine) found at 120 m below present day at 18
ka (Fairbanks, 1989, 1990) 120 m 5 m lowstand
Last Glacial Maximum Rate up to 20 m/1000 yr (2
cm/yr)
MWP1b
MWP1a
50
Barbados Terraces Fairbanks and Matthews, 1978
Below Huon, New Guinea, Terraces
Uplifted terraces, 230Th dating, assumes uniform
uplift rate Barbados, New Guinea,
Haiti Mostly highstands stages 5a, 5c, 5e,
Precise eustatic estimates e.g., 125 ka
(stage 5e/5.5), 6m Sea level/?18O calibration
0.11/10 m
51
?18O Proxy Ice-volume (sea-level) Measurement
reflects both temperature and ice-volume
changes
Wright, Miller, Sheridan, Cramer, submitted
52
?18O Records Astronomical Scale Sea-level Change
but what is role of Temperature vs. Ice?
20, 41, 100 k.y. Astronomical periods
J. Wright, unpublished
53
Effects of Global Warming Storms (J. Church
Extreme Sea-level Events)

• Have storms increased?
• Storm frequency debatable
• 2) Hurricane intensity
• Emanuel Yes, Gray No
• Mid-Atlantic most damage from Noreaster storms

http//www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/uslandfalling1950-200
5-revjan31.jpg
Hurricanes (cat. 1 or gt) hits
Ammerman McClennen 2000
54
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55
Processes effecting the stratigraphic record must
consider processes affecting the stratigraphic
record and how we extract sea-level from
strata eustasy ( global sea level
change) tectonics subsidence/uplift,
loading, compaction, flexural effects sediment
supply
Reynolds et al. (1991) Illustration of the
effects of eustasy, tectonics, and
sediment input on the geometry of sequences
56
Eustasy Global Sea-level Rise
Rise/fall of sea level relative to the center
of the Earth (Posamentier et al., 1988 Exxon
Production Research)
Not really true sea-level today varies by 180 m
from the center of the earth best definition is
relative to the geoid, an equipotential surface.
57
Relative Sea-level Rise
Function of eustasy and subsidence/uplift Chang
e with respect to crust (Posamentier et al.,
1988) Best example, Mississippi Delta region,
undergoing rapid relative rise in sea level due
to subsidence, yet global sea level is only
slowly rising
Posamentier et al., 1988
58
Transgressions Regressions
Function of eustasy, subsidence, sediment
supply Caused by relative sea-level changes or
sediment supply for example, regression during
relative a sea-level rise
59

• Example of regression during sea-level rise
• Regional Mississippi Delta
• Relative sea level rapidly rising loading
  subsidence, eustasy
• Local
• Atchafalaya Bay transgression
• Near river mouth Regression

60
Mechanisms for Global Sea-level Change
Add water to the tub

• Create new water? - no creation of juvenile
  water assumed to be trivial
• (i.e., constant on 100 m.y. scale)
• Melt land glaciers high amplitude, 193 m fast,
  20 m/1000 yr (2 cm/yr)
• Antarctic 65 m SL change
• Greenland 6 m SL change
• Alpine 1 m
• Last Glacial 120 m

Antarctica from Galileo http//www.solarviews.com/
r/earth/antar2.jpg
Fairbanks (1989, 1990)
61
Add water to the tub
Dessicate ocean basin (e.g., Mediterranean)
rapid (k.y.), lt 10 m Lakes and groundwater
small amplitude 1-6 m SL equivalent fast
Warm/expand oceans surface 0 - 500 m up to 1 m
can occur in 10's to 100's yrs deep gt 500 m, up
to 10 m 1,000- millions of yrs
62
Change the volume of the tub

• Increase rate of seafloor spreading
  tectonoeustasy
• fast spreading rate shallower average depth
  oceans
• accounts for 175-250 m fall since 80 Ma
• Though Rowley (2002) disputes this
• rate changes can produce lt10 m of SL change in 1
  m.y. (1 cm/k.y.)
• Create ocean plateaus
• Up to 50 m, rapid rise,
• very slow fall
• Add more sediments
• Slow (1 cm/k.y.),
• Moderate amplitude (60 m)

63
Mechanisms of Sea-level Change
64
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65
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66
An ad Haq hypothesis? Un-Vailing eustasy ODP
pursues a public database
67
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68
Seismic Profiles Image Unconformities Associated
with Sea-level Falls
69
Top Cape May, NJ bottomJOIDES Resolution
Top Island Beach, NJ bottom Atlantic City
70
Transgressive-Regressive successions
71
Sequence Boundaries Subdivide Record
14 Miocene, 8 Oligocene, 12 Eocene, 7 Paleo.,
15-17 Late K
72
Onshore Sequences
Example lo. Miocene onshore sequences, Cape
May,NJ
Characteristics erosional boundaries shoaling
upwards, paleodepth from litho- and biofacies
each ends near shore ages Sr-isotopic dating
biostrat. 0.3-0.5 Ma 1.5 Ma duration
73
Dating Sequences Age control primarily
Sr-isotopes Some Biostratigraphy Magnetostrat.
Age-depth plot Cape May, NJ Miocene section
74

Glacioeustasy Controls Icehouse Sequence
Boundaries
Onshore Hiatuses Offshore seismic sequence
boundaries baselevel lowerings
Miller et al. Science (1996)
75
Was the Cretaceous-Eocene an ice-free Greenhouse
or was glacioeustasy alive well?
Global rise of 50 m http//www.ldeo.columbia.edu/
small/GTop/w17.html
An Ice-Free World eastern U.S. Shoreline
assuming 73 m higher sea level
76
Ancora-Bass River Dip transect 33 km, 66 m
paleodepth 1500 backstripped gradient (Steckler
et al., 1999)
77
In Search of Greenhouse Sequences
Left Bass River, NJ 1996
Right Ancora, NJ 1998
78
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79
Backstripping Provides Eustatic Estimate

• Backstripping onshore NJ
• 1-D backstripping accounts for
• compaction
• loading (Airy)
• thermal subsidence fit McKenzie stretching
  exponential curve
• 2-D (Oligocene) accounts for flexural loading
• (Kominz Pekar)
• Residual R2 eustatic estimate

80
Paleowater Depth Largest Error Source
Lithofacies excellent shoreface to 20-30m 5-10 m
Benthic foram. Inner 0-30 m 15 Middle 30-100 m
30 Neritic 100-200 m 50 Better relative error
81
Backstripping Provides Eustatic Estimate
Van Sickel et al. (2004) and Miller et al.
(2005) 6 onshore sites (only 2 Cretaceous)
82
The Phanerozoic Record of Sea-Level ChangeK. G.
Miller, M. A. Kominz, J. V. Browning, J.D.
Wright, G.S. Mountain, M.E. Katz et al. (2005,
Science)pdf available http//geology.rutgers.edu
/miller.shtmlThis ppt is available at
http//geology.rutgers.edu/kgm
The New Miller curves
83
New Sea-Level ?18O curves

• Backstripped result blue
• Sea-level from ?18O purple
• Long term (first empirical orthogonal function
  SS) heavy black
• ?18O smoothed (remove periods lt 1 m.y.) red
• Sea-level lowstands thin black

84
?18O and Sea Level 105-106 yr scale

• Scale ?18O to sea-level
• Late Miocene ice volume similar to today, ?18O
  0.5 lower due to 2 C cooling

85
New Sites
2007 New sites

• Leg 174AX onshore
• 4-5 sites Cretaceous
• 10-11 sites Cenozoic
• Browning et al. (in review)

86
New Sea-Level ?18O curves

• Backstripped result
• Blue Miller et al. 2005
• Brown Kominz et al., 2008
• Red Kulpecz et al. (in prep.)
• Sea-level from ?18O purple
• Sea-level lowstands thin black

Download data, papers http//geology.rutgers.edu/m
iller.shtml
87
Continental Flooding Backstripped Estimates

• Late Cretaceous estimates
• Ours 50-70 m
• Exxon 250-300 m
• Pitman Ridge 320 m
• Kominz Ridge 45-365 m (230 best estimate)
• Scotian backstrip 110 m
• Watts and Steckler, 1979
• Continental flooding
• 130 m Harrison, 1990
• 80-150 Bond, 1970
• QED Late Cretaceous eustatic high was 10050
• Consistent with small changes in spreading rates
  since 100 Ma (not Rowley 2002), but not Pitman!

88
Long-term (107 yr)

• Peak sea level 50-100 m (not 250 m)
• Fell 100 m from 50-0 Ma
• Long-term ?18O variations co-vary with sea level
• 80 long-term ?18O must be temperature
• Ridge variations controlled greenhouse gases,
  causing global temperature changes

89
?18O and Sea Level 105-106 yr scale

• Late Cretaceous-Eocene Ephemeral Antarctic ice
  sheets 15-30 m sea-level changes
• Oligocene-early Pliocene large, variable
  Antarctic ice
• 30-60 m sea-level changes
• late Pliocene-Recent Antarctic and large,
  variable Northern Hemisphere ice sheets 30-120 m
  sea-level changes

90
Cretaceous-Eocene An ice-free Greenhouse? Or
was glacioeustasy alive well?
Large (gt25 m), rapid sea-level change only
explained by glacioeustasy, yet high latitudes
were warm
An Ice-Free World eastern U.S. Shoreline
assuming 73 m higher sea level
91
Sea-level Fall d18O Greenhouse Increases
Limited Late Cretaceous d18O data due to recovery
and diagenesis Exception Campanian/Maastrichtian
boundary ca. 71.5 Ma direct link to sea-level
fall (Miller et al., 1999, 2003) Other data
hints of mid-Cenomanian, mid- Turonian, other
links
92
Vision of Ice Sheets in a Greenhouse World
Antarctic Ice Sheet

• 15 Ma modern, 63 m

33 Ma e Oligo, 50-60 m
70 Ma largest K, 40 m K Cretaceous
92, 96 Ma, big K, 25 m
93 Ma, typical K, 15 m
Maps from models of Deconto and Pollard (2002)
93
Comparison with EPR Estimates

• Timing falls correct
• long-term 100 m vs. 250-300 m
• million year scale amplitudes 30-80 m, not 100
  m
• It has been said that ours is the worst form of
  sea-level curves except all the others that have
  been tried. Churchill, 1947

94
Future Work
Test Eustatic Estimates Pose Thorny Problem ODP
Leg 194 drilled NE Australian margin estimated
eustatic lowering 8530 m ca. 11 Ma late middle
Miocene i.e., double NJ but 1/2 of Haq Then
reduced to 3312 m story of flexural vs. Airy
John et al. 5515 m NJ 4015 m (but we miss
Miocene lowstands onshore)
95
IODP Ex. 313 NJ/Mid-Atlantic Transect
Summer 2008?
Integrated Ocean Drilling Program
96
Conclusions
107 yr scale

• Long-term sea level 10050 m 100-60 Ma
• Fell 100 m from 50 to 0 Ma
• Consistent with small changes spreading rate
• ??18O co-varies with sea level Ocean crust
  production controls CO2, global temp.

97
Conclusions
105-106 yr scale

• Late Cretaceous-Eocene (100-33 Ma) Ephemeral
  Antarctic ice sheets 30 m sea-level changes
• Oligocene-early Pliocene (33-2.5 Ma) Large,
  variable Antarctic ice sheets 30-60 m sea-level
  changes
• Late Pliocene-Recent (2.5-0 Ma) Antarctic and
  large, variable Northern Hemisphere ice sheets
  30-120 m sea-level changes

104 yr scale

• Natural sea level globally rising since 5 ka,
  0.5-0.8 mm/yr
• 20th century, 1.8 mm/yr
• Today, 3.2 mm/yr, gtgt1/2 modern rise
  anthropogenic