Skeptics of Human-Caused Global Warming

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Skeptics of Human-Caused Global Warming
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Who are the skeptics?

• Two rough categories
• Constructive criticism, founded in science
• Others - rehash old arguments, cherry-pick
  literature, sometimes deceptive

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Category 1 - Constructive Critics

• Some examples
• Richard Lindzen (moisture/radiation feedbacks)
• John Christy (upper atmosphere temperatures)
• Chris Landsea (hurricanes and global warming)
• Roger Pielke, Sr. (instrumental measurements)

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Category 2 - Others

• Some examples
• Frederick Seitz
• S. Fred Singer
• A. B. Robinson and colleagues

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Growth in Climate-Change Awareness
(Growth in the Peer-Reviewed Literature)
Lindzen, 1990 Some coolness concerning global
warming.
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Growth in Climate-Change Awareness
(Growth in the Prestige Literature)
Lindzen, 1990 Some coolness concerning global
warming.
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Lindzen - Importance of Water
The most likely place to search for severe
problems is in the interaction of climate with
water (in all its phases). (Lindzen, 1990)
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Lindzen Iris Effect - 1
(Lindzen, 1990)
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Lindzen Iris Effect - 2
(Lindzen, 1990)
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Global mean temperatures 1980 vs. 2003
? ?
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Lindzen et al. (2001) Does the Earth Have an
Adaptive Infrared Iris?
Clouds as surrogate for high tropical humidity?
Lindzen et al. (2001)
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Lindzen et al. (2001) Cloud Area vs. Ocean
Temperature
Hypothesis Precipitation processes are more
efficient (faster, more thorough) in a warmer
climate.
Lindzen et al. (2001)
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Lindzen et al. (2001) Satellite Observations
over Tropical Pacific
High clouds
Thicker clouds
Lindzen et al. (2001)
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Hartman Michelsen (2002) No Evidence for Iris
Cloud cover ? as SST under clouds ?
Regression of cloud fraction at each point (1 x
1 grid) with the cloud-weighted SST (average SST
under clouds)
Cloud cover ? as SST under clouds ?
the subtropical clouds that provide most of the
variation in cloud-weighted SST and most of the
negative correlation with mean cloud cover are
not physically connected to deep tropical
convective cores...
Cloud cover ? as SST under clouds ?
Hartmann Michelsen (2002)
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Lindzen et al. (2002) A rebuttal - 1
Deep convection occurs all over the tropics (05
August 1998)
Lindzen et al. (2002)
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Lindzen et al. (2002) A rebuttal - 2
Results not sensitive to threshold for high-cloud
detection (?)
Lindzen et al. (2002)
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Lindzen et al. (2002) A rebuttal - 3
Results stronger for region closer to equator
25 S - 25 N
30 S - 30 N
R -0.301
Lindzen et al. (2002)
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Further on Iris
Lin et al. (2002) - Observations show
cirrus-anvil clouds have much higher albedo and
moderately larger longwave fluxes than in Lindzen
et al. ??Cloud decreases has significant but
weak positive feedback instead of strong negative
feedback.
Horvath Soden (2005) - No causal link between
cirrus anvils and moistening of atmosphere
below. - higher SST leads to stronger cumulus
convection (thunderstorms) and slightly larger,
longer lasting cirrus anvils
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Category 2 - Others

• Some examples
• Frederick Seitz
• S. Fred Singer
• A. B. Robinson and colleagues

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Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide
Printed 1. 1998, by A. B. Robinson, S. L.
Baliunas, W. Soon and Z. W. Robinson. Made to
look like a reprint from the Publications of the
National Academy of Sciences. Mailed to tens of
thousands of U.S. scientists, with cover note
signed by Frederick Seitz, Past President of the
National Academy of Sciences a
petition. National Academy of Sciences press
release The NAS Council would like to make it
clear that this petition has nothing to do with
the National Academy of Sciences and that the
manuscript was not published in the Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences or in any
other peer-reviewed journal The petition does
not reflect the conclusions of expert reports of
the Academy.
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Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide
Printed 1. 1998, by A. B. Robinson, S. L.
Baliunas, W. Soon and Z. W. Robinson. Made to
look like a reprint from the Publications of the
National Academy of Sciences. Mailed to tens of
thousands of U.S. scientists, with cover note
signed by Frederick Seitz, Past President of the
National Academy of Sciences a petition. 2.
1999, by W. Soon, S. L. Baliunas, A. B. Robinson
and Z. W. Robinson, in Climate Research.
Peer-reviewed - but controversy surrounding its
acceptance. 3. 2007, by A. B. Robinson, N.E.
Robinson and W. Soon, in Journal of American
Physicians and Surgeons. New petition drive.
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Their Fig. 1 Temperature Reconstruction
Sargasso Sea
This does not represent the whole hemisphere! (
2 of NH) (Nor do they try to show that it does)
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Contrast Their Fig. 1 with Hemispheric
Reconstructions
AR4 - WG 1 - Chapter 6
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Their Fig. 3 High Latitude Temperature and Solar
Variability
Uses outdated estimate of solar irradiance (see
AR4,WG1,Ch2)
Ignores attribution to solar forcing based on
physical computations (see AR4,WG1,Ch 6,9)
Does not understand (or misrepresents)
relationship between CO2 increase, forcing
change, and Earths response (see AR4,WG1,Ch 6, 8)
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Their Fig. 9 Land-Falling Hurricanes
A small portion of all hurricanes
Ignores shifts in distributions of hurricanes
(storm tracks)
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Singer Avery Book
(published 2008)
Evidence that our warming is natural is found in
more than 100 peer-reviewed papers published in
professional journals, with literally hundreds of
co-authors, cited in this book
(Used to claim warming was not occurring)
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Timing of Temperature Changes
U.S. 2 of global surface area
The fact that there has been no warming trend in
the U.S. since the 1930s seriously undermines
claims that the effects of global warming are
already being felt in the U.S. (J. Bast -
Editor of the book)
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Temperature Reconstruction?
How much warmer was it?
Not 1995 report - 1990 report A schematic sketch!
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Temperature Reconstruction?
Six years later in the TAR, the IPCC was
either bolder or more desperate..
Mann was named an IPCC lead author and an editor
of the Journal of Climate signaling the new
order of things to the rest of his profession.
In effect, the IPCC told us to ignore the
overwhelming historic and physical evidence
(AR4-WG1-Ch6)
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Upper Troposphere Water Vapor
(from satellite observations)
There is no evidence that the upper atmosphere
is retaining more water vapor. Singer Avery
(2008)
Baseline 1982-2004
Soden et al. (2005)
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Heat Vent?
A team of researchers from NASA and MIT recently
discovered a natural climatic heat vent in the
Earths atmosphere that appears to be big
enough to vent all the heat the models predict
would be generated by a doubling of CO2. Singer
Avery (2008)
Baseline 1982-2004
Referring to Iris Effect (2001), ignoring later
counter evidence
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Cosmic Rays and Cloud Cover?

• A possible natural effect not included in climate
  models
• more cosmic rays lead to
• more cloud condensation nuclei
• more cloud cover
• cooler climate
• with warming when cosmic rays are weaker (blown
  away from the earth by a stronger solar wind

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Reflected Solar Radiation
Satellites
Models
Deceasing Cloud Cover?
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Cosmic Rays and Cloud Cover?

• A possible natural effect not included in climate
  models
• more cosmic rays lead to
• more cloud condensation nuclei
• more cloud cover
• cooler climate
• with warming when cosmic rays are weaker (blown
  away from the earth by a stronger solar wind

(Fig D.E. Vincent)
The mechanism by which cosmic rays might affect
climate is as yet purely speculative and
unquantified. While it has long been known that
radiation could form ions and, in theory,
ultimately lead to cloud formation, the
importance of this process compared to all the
other major sources of particles and cloud
condensation nuclei has not been proven. Indeed,
there is no evidence that the flux of cosmic rays
has decreased over the last 30 years. - UK Met
Office
(www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/myths)
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Other Contentions
Its the sun
Reconstructed irradiance Temperature records
(Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research)
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Other Contentions
Models cant forecast weather beyond a few days
so they cant show climate decades ahead.
Model projections of global temperature
(IPCC AR4 Ch. 1)
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Other Contentions
Climate has changed without humans. Its all
natural cycles.
Simulations with natural forcings only
(IPCC AR4 Ch. 9)
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Other Contentions
Climate has changed without humans. Its all
natural cycles.
Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere Temperature
(IPCC AR4 Ch. 6)
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Other Contentions
In the 1970s scientists said an ice age was
coming. Now theyve flip-flopped
Global Temperature Indicator from Ice Cores
Thousands of yr
(IPCC AR4 Ch. 6)
New Ice Age Starting?
Interglacial Periods
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How should you view discussions?

• Dont rely on one source of information
• Watch for false balance
• Watch for carefully selected data
• Lies, lies and statistics (M. Twain and
  others)
• Be wary of information sources, especially those
  that
• attack the credibility of opponents
• engage in name calling
• provide little evidence from peer-reviewed
  literature

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Skeptics of Human-Caused Global Warming