Smart Ocean Climatology

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Smart Ocean Climatology For Naval Warfare Tom
Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School
(NPS) murphree_at_nps.edu http//wx.met.nps.navy.mil
/smart-climo/reports.php
Brief Presented at DoD Climate Conference AFCCC/14
WS and FNMOD Asheville, NC 06 November
2007 Updated 10 November 2007
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• Co-Authors
• Tom Murphree, NPS
• Mark LaJoie, Lt Col, USAF
• Adam Stepanek, Capt, USAF
• Damon Vorhees, Capt, USAF
• Joel Feldmeier, LCDR, USN
• Chris Hanson, Capt, USAF
• Sarah Moss, Capt, USAF
• David Meyer, (USN retired), NPS
• Katherine Twigg, Lt, Royal Navy
• Bob Tournay, Capt, USAF
• Christi Montgomery, LT, USN
• Allon Turek, LCDR, USN
• Bruce Ford (USN retired), Clear Science, Inc.
• Paul Frederickson, NPS
• Dave Smarsh, Col, USAF
• Karl Pfeiffer, Lt Col, USAF
• Chuck Wash, NPS
• NPS climatology course students

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Present State of DoD Climatology

• Typical development of DoD climo products
  excludes many modern data sets and methods of
  climate analysis and forecasting.
• Most DoD climatology products fail to account for
  advances in climate science and operational
  climatology during the last 30 years, including
• data sets
• data analysis
• modeling
• monitoring
• forecasting
• This lag in DoD climatology has created
  significant gaps in climatological support for
  war fighters.
• Course correction Start applying smart
  climatology State-of-the-art basic and applied
  climatology that directly supports DoD operations

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Battlespace on Demand
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Battlespace on Demand
Data and methods for generating smart climo
products at all three tiers already exist. Now
we must commit resources to developing these
products.
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Battlespace on Demand
Battlespace on Demand is the Naval Oceanography
communitys strategy and guidance to
Start by using smart climatology to get the
background environment right.
Streamline by building on existing smart
climatology data, methods, and products.
Need to go beyond forecasting the environment to
analyze and forecast the operational impacts and
the best courses of action.
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Naval Oceanography Enterprise Model
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• First Principles
• Know the ground
• Fight on the ground of your choosing
• Own the windward gage

Create and Maintain an Information Advantage

• Smart climatology is critical to
• Knowing the ground well in advance
• Finding and keeping the windward gage well in
  advance

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Smart Ocean Climatology Data Sets
Ocean Currents
Existing civilian smart climatology data sets
provide descriptions of many variables that are
not represented in existing Navy climatologies.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program,
murphree_at_nps.edu
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Smart Ocean Climatology Data Sets
Sea Surface Heights and Surface Currents
Existing civilian smart climatology data sets
provide descriptions of many variables that are
not represented in existing Navy climatologies.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program,
murphree_at_nps.edu
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Smart Ocean Climatology Data Sets
Evaporation Duct Heights
Smart Climatology
Traditional Climatology
Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and
visualization tools to produce more detailed,
accurate, and operationally useful products.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.
Smart Climo 1, murphree_at_nps.edu, Nov07
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Smart Ocean Climatology Analysis Methods
Existing civilian smart climatology data sets
allow development of conditional climatologies
that account for deviations from long term means.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program,
murphree_at_nps.edu
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Smart Ocean Climatology Analysis and Modeling
Methods
Smart Climatological Performance Surfaces
Use of state-of-the-science data sets, analyses,
and modeling can lead to substantial improvements
in climate products. Need to develop related
ocean climate environmental products, including,
for example, smart climatological SLD products,
and smart climatological performance surfaces for
acoustic detection ranges and cutoff frequency.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by K. Twigg, Royal Navy.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program,
murphree_at_nps.edu
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Smart Ocean Climatology Climate Prediction
Short Term Climate Prediction, Iraq Precip,
Oct-Dec
Analyses of climate scale relationships (left)
lead to short term climate predictions (right).
Hindcast for Oct-Dec 2002, during moderate El
Nino event, shows high (low) probability of above
(below) normal precip. Lead time six weeks,
Verifying observed precip was 28 above normal.
Conclusion from many such analyses and forecasts
Short term climate forecasts of T and precip in
Southwest Asia have useful skill, especially
compared to traditional climo.
Apply to the ocean the short term climate
prediction methods already used successfully for
atmosphere. For example, develop smart
climatology predictions of SLD, cutoff frequency,
acoustic propagation.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by C. Hanson, Capt, USAF, and S.
Moss, Capt, USAF.
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Acknowledgements CAPT Jim Berdeguez, CDR Van
Gurley, Dennis Krynen, staff of ASW RBC
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LTM Temperature at 5 m, August, from GDEM
oC

• This slide is the same as slide 30, but with a
  different color range used to highlight the major
• patterns in the GDEM T at 4 m data.
• Compare to reanalysis T at 5 m using a color
  range that highlights major patterns (slide 31).
• Note the larger amount of small scale structure
  (e.g., bulls eyes, patchy patterns) in
• GDEM than in the reanalysis (slide 31),
  probably due to the statistical methods used in
• GDEM to fill in data gaps.

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LTM Temperature Profiles, August, From Reanalyses
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From SODA oceanic reanalysis
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Note Near surface temperatures observed during
VSO7 were, in general, 0.5oC warmer than the
long term mean reanalysis temperatures, and
0.5-1.0oC warmer than the GDEM temperatures.
The warmer waters appears to have been part of
the 2007-08 La Nina event that was developing
during August 2007.
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Preliminary Findings Smart Climatology and VS07

• Overall T and S patterns in oceanic climatologies
  based on existing civilian reanalyses are similar
  to those in Navy climatologies.
• But there are some surprisingly large differences
  in near-surface T magnitudes (GDEM cooler) that
  may be due to efforts during development of GDEM
  to accentuate mixed layer (e.g., avoid rounded
  off upper ocean T profiles).
• GDEM has considerable small scale structure
  (e.g., bulls eyes, patchy patterns) that may be
  an artifact of the statistical processes used to
  fill in data gaps.
• Some Navy marine atmospheric climatologies
  provide very poor representations of well known
  features of the lower tropospheric circulation
  (e.g., monsoon trough) that are important in
  atmospheric forcing of upper ocean.
• Overall accuracy of climatologies based on
  existing civilian reanalyses appears to be equal
  to or greater than that of Navy climatologies.
• A complete comparative assessment is difficult
  because Navy climatologies do not provide a
  number of important variables that are available
  in reanalyses (e.g., SSH, currents,
  precipitation, estimates of deep convection).

See notes section of this slide for more
details.
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ASW Uses of Climatology Present Approach
Overview of process presently used at NAVO
Assimilate near real time observations (remotely
sensed and in situ).
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ASW Uses of Climatology Present Approach
Comments on process presently used at NAVO
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Recommended Directions for Smart Ocean Climatology

• Develop smart climatology data access, analysis,
  and visualization system for use in RBC and other
  METOC support centers.
• Apply smart climatology methods to improve METOC
  analyses and forecasts, including
• climatological versions of Tier 1-3 products
• climatology based improvements in existing Tier
  1-3 products
• Conduct more in-depth and quantitative
  comparisons of civilian reanalysis data sets with
  Navy atmospheric, oceanic, and acoustic
  climatologies. Assess potential of reanalyses
  and other smart climatology data and methods to
  improve Navy climatologies.
• Use operational analysis and modeling to evaluate
  ability of smart climatology to improve
  operational outcomes.
• Develop online learning center on smart
  climatology and its Navy applications.
• Create a smart climatology steering committee to
  help develop a coordinated and collaborative
  approach for improving military climatology.

The next three slides summarize six proposed
projects based on these recommended directions.
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ASW Smart Climatology Project Proposal Summaries
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Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization
Application

• User selections
• Data source
• Time period
• Location
• Basic variables
• Derived variables
• Display type (e.g., map, cross
• section, 3-D, time series)
• Analysis type (e.g., mulit-variable,
• composite, difference, correlation
• Conditional climatology constraints
• (e.g., high winds, high seas, low
• precip, EN, LN, MJO phase)
• Climate forecast (e.g., NAO, -IOZM,
• high TC formation probability)
• Operation type

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Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization
Application

• Sample Output Products
• Conditional climatologies
• for AOR
• Teleconnections to AOR
• Operational impacts
• assessments
• Mission planning tools

Mock up figure, not based on actual analysis or
forecast.
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Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization
Application

• Intended Users
• Mission planners
• Staff officers
• Forecasters
• Ocean analysts
• Acoustic analysts
• Staff METOC officers or other METOC personnel
  involved in
• mission/exercise planning
• NPS students
• Researchers
• C-school instructors
• C-school students
• Estimated C-school class time require to train
  forecasters in effective use of smart climo
  interface 4-5 hours.

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Smart Climatology Learning Center
Smart Climatology Analysis and Forecasting Process
To implement smart climatology, METOC personnel
need hands-on education and training. Process
outlined here for providing smart climatological
support was developed and tested by Navy and AF
METOC officers and NPS faculty.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
Advancede Climatology course projects and thesis
research by M. LaJoie, Lt Col, USAF.
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Smart Climatology Major Findings

• Smart climatology has the potential to
  substantially improve climate support for
  warfighters.
• The potential to make large improvements through
  short term climate prediction is especially high.
• However, smart climo is, for the most part, not
  being done by DoD.
• Thus, warfighters are not being given
  state-of-the-science climate support.
• We need to get smart about doing climatology.

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Smart Climatology Recommendations to Leadership

• Make smart climatology a priority for AFW and
  Naval Oceanography Enterprise.
• Get climate research and operational climatology
  experts together with climatology end users to
  map out the way ahead.
• Be efficient. Build on existing resources,
  especially civilian climatology resources.
• Take a joint approach. Consider creating a joint
  smart climatology reachback center.
• Get off to a fast start Focus first on direct
  operational applications of existing smart
  climatology data and methods.
• Teach smart climo at all levels, and then give
  people the tools to do smart climo themselves.
  Dont leave smart climo up to just the climo
  experts.
• Provide funding.

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Contact Information
Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Department of
Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School 254 Root
Hall 589 Dyer Road Monterey, CA
93943-5114 831-656-2723  commercial 312-756-2723 
DSN 831-241-0561 cell 831-656-3061 
fax murphree_at_nps.edu murphrjt_at_nps.navy.smil.mil
Smart Climatology http//wx.met.nps.navy.mil/sma
rt-climo/reports.php METOC Metrics
http//wx.met.nps.navy.mil/metrics/metrics_reports
.html
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• Smart Climatology Key Concepts
• Smart climo is the application of
  state-of-the-science climatology to supporting
  DoD operations.
• State-of-the-science climatology is routinely and
  successfully used by civilian operational climate
  centers in the U.S., Europe, and many other
  countries to support civilian operations.
• Prior studies have shown that climo support
  provided by DoD is well below the level of the
  state-of-the-science support provided by civilian
  operational climo centers.
• The big shortcomings in DoD climo stem form the
  failure to keep up with modern data sets and
  modern analysis and forecasting methods.
• Compared to the climo products that are available
  in the civilian realm, many DoD climo products
  are very inadequate and out of date, or simply do
  not exist (e.g., subsurface ocean currents are
  available in the civilian climos but not in the
  Navy climos).
• Studies by NPS have shown that smart climo has a
  very high potential to significantly improve
  METOC support to warfighters.

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• Smart Climatology Key Concepts
• The improvements in METOIC support provided by
  smart climo would occur at all planning levels,
  from strategic to tactical. The tactical
  benefits would come from the large role climo
  plays in developing short range forecasts (e.g.,
  short range model parameterizations, ICs, BCs,
  nudging, model selection, model evaluation).
  Tactical benefits also would come from helping
  warfighters avoid the need to deal with short
  range environmental problems. Smart climo can
  help planners select times, locations, routes,
  pre-positioning of personnel and equipment, and
  tactics that minimize the risk of short term
  problems of operation (e.g., determining route
  for carrier group to minimize risk of low
  cig/vis determining best locations to
  pre-position heavy equipment).
• Smart climo involves accounting for climate
  variations (e.g., El Nino high wind regimes over
  the ocean long term trends etc). But there is
  much more to smart climo than that. One of the
  first steps in doing smart climo is to work with
  state-of-the-science data to create
  state-of-the-science long term means. Then move
  on to analyzing and forecasting the impacts of
  climate variations.
• NPS studies have also shown that much of the
  improvement in climo support could happen quickly
  and at relatively little cost, by leveraging off
  of existing and freely available civilian data
  sets, methods, and applications.
• Providing routine smart climo support can be a
  complex process (as is the case for all other
  types of state-of-the-science METOC support). We
  need to develop appropriate ways to deal with
  this complexity in METOC education and training
  (as we have for other types of METOC support).

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• Smart Climatology Key Concepts
• Most METOC personnel need to understand the
  basics of climatology, because climo is
  fundamental for all types of METOC analysis and
  forecasting.
• Analyzing and forecasting the large scale, low
  frequency variations of the environment are the
  first steps in analyzing and forecasting the
  smaller and shorter term variations. Thus, in
  any forecast process, the first step should be to
  assess the state of the climate system. For
  example, in doing an extratropical synoptic
  weather forecast, start by looking at the
  extratropical longwave pattern, a key feature of
  extratropical climate.
• Some uniformed personnel need to be experts in
  climo, especially the operational applications of
  smart atmospheric and oceanic climo (and,
  ideally, smart land and space climo too). These
  experts need to be supported by DoD civilian
  climo experts.
• Smart climo support fits well into the hub,
  production center, and reachback cell concepts.
  The military and civilian staffs at these centers
  should include at least one climo expert per
  center.
• The uniformed and civilian climo experts need to
  be given routine professional development
  opportunities so that they can keep up with the
  state of the science (e.g., opportunities to take
  short courses, attend and present at civilian
  conferences, participate in DoD climo workshops,
  etc.).

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• Smart Climatology Key Concepts
• The METOC climo experts need to be responsible
  for ensuring that DoD climo support also keeps up
  with the times (e.g., by taking on leadership
  roles in identifying critical new methods for
  improving climo support and helping to ensure
  that necessary RD is funded and operationally
  implemented.
• Modern climatology might be a better term than
  smart climatology, since it probably conveys more
  clearly what we are talking about doing without
  antagonizing as many people as smart climatology
  seems to do. However, smart climatology is a
  term CAPT Titley helped put into the METOC
  vocabulary, and it has become a pretty common
  term in METOC circles.
• Ideally, we will one day speak just of
  climatology, with no modifiers like smart or
  modern. We do not speak of smart or modern
  meteorology or oceanography, because we just
  assume that Navy meteorology and oceanography
  should be and are smart, modern, and
  state-of-the-art. Once we can safely make that
  assumption about Navy climatology, we can drop
  the modifiers.

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LTM Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), August,
From Reanalysis
OLR is a very useful proxy indicator of clouds
and associated winds, surface heat fluxes, and
precipitation (e.g., low insolation and high
surface winds associated with deep tropical
convection), and thus has implications for
estimating surface forcing of the ocean and
potential impacts on SLD and other ASW-relevant
oceanic variables. Blue (red) indicates deep
atmospheric convection, high precipitation (clear
skies, low precipitation). Low (high) OLR
indicates longwave radiation from relatively cold
(warm) surface. In tropics, lowest OLR values
indicate deep convection, with low amounts of
longwave radiation from high cold cloud tops
while highest values indicate clear sky
conditions and longwave radiation from relatively
warm surfaces (e.g., sea surface). OLR not
available from SMGC or GMCA.
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From NCEP atmospheric reanalysis
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LTM Salinity Profiles, August, From Reanalyses
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From SODA oceanic reanalysis
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NPS Smart Climatology - Research Development
Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean
(LTM)
Note LTM poleward coastal currents along east
Asia. Results based on 47-year global ocean
reanalysis.
From Ford and Murphree (2007)
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NPS Smart Climatology Prototype Operational
Products
Impacts on Military Operations, Straits of
Taiwan, October
Green favorable for indicated operations /
mission Yellow marginal for indicated operation
/ mission Conditions slightly improved for NE
Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow.
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Smart Climatology - Alternatives for Improving
Ocean Climo

• Proposal --- Based on NPS Climate Support Process
  
• Well before mission planning begins, develop
  background smart climo products using smart climo
  data and methods .
• When mission planning begins, assess the current
  state of climate system. If indicated by current
  state, develop updated smart climo products by
  using smart climo data and methods to adjust
  pre-planning smart climo.
• Assimilate near real time observations (remote
  and in situ) into planning smart climo, according
  to resource availability and operational
  priorities.

• See NPS Smart Climatology site, especially
  LaJoie (2006), at http//wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smar
  t-climo/
• Examples of Smart Climo Data and Methods
• Application of reanalysis and other advanced data
  sets
• Statistical and dynamical analyses of data
• Statistical and dynamical climate modeling
• Climate system monitoring
• Statistical and dynamical climate forecasting

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