AGFS Product Development Team

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Aviation Weather Applications of Polar-orbiting
Satellites
Polar Max 2005 25 October
Lynn A. Sherretz Global Systems Division Earth
System Research Lab (formerly FSL)
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Topics

• Most-cherished aspect of every program!
• Importance and benefits of aviation
• Forecasting philosophy
• POES contributions to aviation wx forecasts
• Direct use by forecasters (volcanic ash, CV)
• Numerical Wx Prediction (NWP)
• Verification
• Opportunities

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Most-cherished Aspect of Programs

• Acronyms!

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Most-cherished Aspect of Programs

• Acronyms!
• Please pardon possible mistakes with
  acronyms--many are new to me and my background is
  civilian side.

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Most-cherished Aspect of Programs

• Acronyms!
• Please pardon possible mistakes with
  acronyms--many are new to me and my background is
  civilian side.
• My favorite FAA algorithm PAMRI

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Most-cherished Aspect of Programs

• Acronyms!
• Please pardon possible mistakes with
  acronyms--many are new to me and my background is
  civilian side.
• My favorite FAA algorithm PAMRI
• Portable Adaptor Module Replacement Item

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Role of Aviation in U.S. Economy
Civil aviation generates 900 B in annual
economic activity (9 of GDP 11 million
jobs.) --2002 Study by DRI-WEFA and
Campbell-Hill Aviation Group airlines,
box carriers, business and general aviation, and
aircraft builders
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General Aviation

• General Aviation (GA) contributes significantly
  to our economy and recreation

200K aircraft fly 30M hours each year
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Most of Us Fly to Only a Few Airports
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Many More Exist in CONUS and AK
Scheduled flights serve only 3 of these airports
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..and Many More Private Airstrips
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Alaska Relies Heavily on Aviation
Flying through mtn passes can be very dangerous
Few highways
AK has 6x pilots 16x planes per capita as rest
of U.S.
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Forecasting Philosophy Use All Obs!
VAAC Domains
Aviation forecasting is science and art Use
(and make sense of) all available obs! POES
provides obs at high latitudes where other
types of obs are sparse many aviation operations
occur
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Possible 4-Tier Obs Scenario for GEOSS
VAAC Domains
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Direct Use by Forecasters Volcanic Ash
VAAC Domains
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Local Airport in Ecuador
VAAC Domains
Problem Flight Routes and Volcanoes Coincide
Problem Volcanoes and Flight Routes Coincide
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Ash reaches flight levels 20-25 times each
year (worldwide)
Mt Redoubt (AK) 1989
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Forecasting Problem
Immediate Is ash high enough to affect jet
routes? Ongoing Where will winds carry ash?
NASA shuttle near New Guinea September 1994
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Impacts of Encountering Ash

• Danger Engine failure, loss of visibility, loss
  of critical instruments.
• Cost 100 jets damaged in past 20 years with
  total cost of 250M. Airports closed and planes
  grounded. 100K to divert an international
  flight.
• Far-reaching Impact Engines have failed 600 mi
  away and damage has occurred 1800 mi away.

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Mt Redoubt Erupted in 1989
103 miles SW of Anchorage
USGS
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KLM 747 Descending into Anchorage
VAAC Domains
All engines failed and plane fell 13K ft before
restarting. Came within 1-2 min of crashing.
KLM 747 231 folks
231 passengers/crew
Damage 80M
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Turbine Damage (courtesy of NASA)
VAAC Domains
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Cooling Turbine with Melted Ash
VAAC Domains
Courtesy of NASA
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Looks Are Deceiving!
Volcanic ash looks fluffy like ash from wood
but is extremely abrasive.
Ash is made of rock, mineral, and glass
fragments.
USGS photo
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Ash is Highly Abrasive
Holes are caused by expanding gasses
Sarna-Wojcicki photo
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North Pacific Airspace

• About 200 flights cross N. Pacific each day
  carrying 20 K folks and 6 K tons cargo
• and 100 active volcanoes may emit ash there.
• 41 in Alaska/Aleutians
• 29 in Kamchatka
• 30 in Kurile Islands
• POES obs have much utility for N. Pacific
  airspace

USGS photo
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Active Volcanoes of Aleutian Arc
Cleveland (Feb 2001)
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Mt. Cleveland
AK Volcano Observatory
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Ash Crosses Flight Routes
Mt Cleveland 2001 White lines flight routes
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Mt Spurr (1992)
103 miles SW of Anchorage
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NOAA-14 Observation
Mt Shishaldin
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MODIS Observation
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NOAA-15 Observation
Mt Shishaldin
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Landsat 7 Observation
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Direct Use by Forecasters CV
VAAC Domains
Adverse CV contributes to more than 35 of all
weather-related accidents (many of which are
fatal) in U.S. civil aviation and causes flight
delays nationwide. POES obs have much utility
for improving CV forecasts--especially at high
latitudes.
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IDing Clouds and Surface Features
VAAC Domains
MODIS
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IDing Clouds and Surface Features
VAAC Domains
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IDing Clouds and Surface Features
VAAC Domains
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Utility of POES Obs to NWP
VAAC Domains
Title page
NCEP computing center
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Ops Models that Support Aviation
VAAC Domains
Many organizations (e.g., NCEP, ECMWF, The Met
Office, Canadian Met Centre, Japanese Met Agency,
Navy) run ops models that support aviation.
NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)--6h
cycle N. American Mesoscale Model (NAM)--6h
cycle Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)--1h cycle
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FAA/NWS Aviation Wx Algorithms
VAAC Domains
FAA Aviation Wx Rsch Program (AWRP) is funding
development of algorithms that forecast key
impact variables such as icing, turbulence
convection. Algorithms running ops at NWS
Aviation Weather Center (AWC) Forecast Icing
Potential (FIP) Graphical Turbulence Guidance
(GTG) National Convective Wx Forecast
(NCWF) Subsequent versions will increasingly use
POES obs.
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RUC Background
VAAC Domains
RUC was born from a key recommendation made by
Aviation Weather Forecasting Task
Force Develop a 4-D data assimilation system
for aviation weather Task Force commissioned
by FAA in 1984. Members NOAA, NCAR, NASA,
universities
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Data Assimilation
VAAC Domains
Assimilation provides analysis--the starting
point for the forecast process. Meld diverse obs
(sampled at different times, intervals and
locations) with latest forecast to produce a
unified and consistent description of the
atmosphere.
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RUC Background (cont.)
VAAC Domains

• To specifically address aviation requirements,
  RUC development focused on
• very frequent updates (hourly)
• regional domain (enabling frequent updates and
  covering where most U.S. aviation ops occur)
• assimilating new obs (e.g., made by aircraft)

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Obs Assimilated by RUC
VAAC Domains
Commercial aircraft (wind and temp) Wind
profilers (404 and 915 MHz) Rawinsondes/dropwinso
ndes (wind, temp, moisture) Sfc stations buoys
(inc. cloud, visibility, current wx) POES SSM/I,
GOES, GPS (total precipitable water) WSR-88D
radars (VAD velocity-azimuth display
winds) Radio Acoustic Sounding System
(RASS)--temperature GOES (high-density visible
and IR cloud drift winds)
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Some POES Obs Used by NCEP Models
VAAC Domains
HIRS 1b radiances MSU 1b radiances AMSU-A 1b
radiances AMSU-B 1b radiances SSM/I precipitable
water SSM/I precip estimates SSM/I winds TRMM TMI
precip estimates AIRS radiances MODIS winds
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Polar Troposphere Winds (MODIS)
Wind estimates are obtained by tracking cloud
and WV features
Image from CIMSS
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Future Use of POES in Ops NWP
VAAC Domains
POES obs will be used increasingly by next-gen
model suite Weather Research Forecast
(WRF). Reasons Model domains are expanding to
high latitudes to serve additional
customers WRF will use Grid-point Statistical
Interpolation (GSI)--for which advanced methods
are being developed to assimilate satellite obs.
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Joint Ctr for Satellite Data Assim
Established in 2002. Partnered by NOAA (NESDIS,
NWS, OAR), NASA, Navy and Air Force. UCAR
supports visiting scientist program on
GPS. Located at NCEP.
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Recent Success
Incorporating HIRS obs into ops NCEP GFS has
improved accuracy of 5-6 day forecasts by 4.
Similar improvements usually take two years.
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Proposed WRF Rapid Refresh Domain
VAAC Domains
Proposed RR domain (operational in 2-3 yrs)
Domain of RR will extend farther north than RUC
domain--making it necessary practicable for RR
to use POES obs.
Current RUC domain
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Real-time Verification System (RTVS)
VAAC Domains
Provides statistical and graphical verification
of aviation wx forecasts Developed by NOAA ESRL
GSD with funds provided by FAA AWRP.
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Opportunities
VAAC Domains
Forecast models and algorithms will increasingly
use satellite obs.. as advances in computing
assimilation methods ..enable exploiting finer
spatial, temporal and spectral resolution
afforded by NPOESS.