Santa Barbara

1
The City of Oxnard
Economic Outlook
Bill Watkins
September 15, 2004
2
Outline

• Oxnard
• Baby Boomers
• Building Oxnard
• Forecast

3
Oxnard

• How is it doing?
• Compared to

4
How is Oxnard doing?
5
So Many Influences

• International Politics
• United States
• Los Angeles
• Other Ventura County communities
• Santa Barbara County

6
Population
Comparison
Index (1991 100)
7
Unemployment Rate
Ventura County
8.9
9.0
Los Angeles Countys Is 6.8
7.8
7.5
7.1
6.6
5.6
5.4
5.3
4.8
4.6
4.5
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
8
Total Employment (jobs)
Oxnard Metro Area
9
Employment
Comparison
Index (1991 100)
150.7
Oxnard Metro Area
146.0
145.2
Ventura County
136.2
124.6
123.6
100.0
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
10
1-Year Employment Growth by Industry
Oxnard Metro Area - 2003
Services
Finance, Ins. Real Estate
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Trans., Comm. Utilities
Non-Durable Goods
Durable Goods
Construction
Mining
Agriculture
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
jobs
11
Employment Distribution (jobs)
Oxnard Metro Area - 2003
Agriculture
10,859
Mining
187
Other Services include Repair-Maintenance Laundry
Religion Civic Professional .
Construction
1,823
Durable Manufacturing
3,034
Non-Durable Manufacturing
2,959
Trans., Comm., Utilities
2,840
Wholesale Trade
2,653
Retail Trade
10,192
Finance, Ins. Real Estate
2,961
Other Services
17,280
12
Salary Comparison ( per worker)
Oxnard Metro Area - 2003
21,270
Agriculture
34,291
Mining
38,703
Construction
58,171
Durable Manufacturing
33,415
Non-Durable Manufacturing
39,174
Trans., Comm., Utilities
39,552
Wholesale Trade
22,017
Retail Trade
50,026
Finance, Ins. Real Estate
37,029
Other Services
13
Lets talk about agriculture for a minute.
Bill Says
14
Retail Sales 1-year Growth Distribution
City of Oxnard - 2003
Other Retail
Household Products
General Merchandise
Service Stations
Food Stores
Eating and Drinking
Automobiles
Building Materials
Apparel Stores
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
percent
15
Hotel / Motel Room Sales
Oxnard City
millions
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
19901
19921
19941
19961
19981
20001
20021
20041
16
Oxnardand otherVentura County cities
17
2004 Hispanic Proportion of Population
Cities in Ventura County
75.7
70.2
69.4
44.2
31.0
27.0
18.4
17.7
17.0
14.7
Santa
Thousand
Camarillo
Moorpark
Oxnard
Paula
Oaks
Port
Fillmore
Ojai
Ventura
Simi Valley
Hueneme
City
18
2003 Population Growth
Cities in Ventura County
19
2004 Median Age
Cities in Ventura County
42.5
39.4
38.1
37.2
35.3
31.4
30.6
30.2
30.2
29.4
Camarillo
Fillmore
Moorpark
Ojai
Oxnard
Port
Santa
Simi Valley
Thousand
Ventura
Hueneme
Paula
Oaks
City
20
2003 Nominal Median Home Prices
Cities in Ventura County
477,186
442,500
411,854
407,545
388,088
369,921
345,833
299,083
297,292
268,231
Cama-
Fill-
Port
Moor-
Ojai
Oxnard
Simi
Santa
Thousand
Ventura
rillo
more
Hueneme
park
Valley
Paula
Oaks
City
21
2004 Median Household Income
Cities in Ventura County
84,653
84,053
79,155
69,394
58,114
52,539
52,744
49,089
45,976
44,729
Camarillo
Fillmore
Moorpark
Ojai
Oxnard
Port
Santa
Simi Valley
Thousand
Ventura
Hueneme
Paula
Oaks
City
22
2004 Owner-Occupied Housing
Cities in Ventura County
81.7
77.0
75.0
73.2
63.1
58.3
58.3
57.1
57.0
48.0
Camarillo
Fillmore
Moorpark
Ojai
Oxnard
Port
Santa
Simi Valley
Thousand
Ventura
Hueneme
Paula
Oaks
City
23
2003 Real Gross Regional Product
Metro Regions in Ventura County
millions
10,656.4
6,605.8
6,261.4
4,764.2
4,605.9
788.1
Cama-
Oxnard
Simi
Santa
Ventura
Thousand
rillo
Valley
Paula
City
Oaks
24
2003 Real GRP per Worker
Metro Regions in Ventura County
172,418
134,605
127,830
118,108
113,850
101,042
Camarillo
Oxnard
Simi
Santa
Ventura
Thousand
Oaks
Paula
City
25
2003 Real Retail Sales
Cities in Ventura County
millions
1,708
1,430
1,259
842
511
104
87
64
63
48
Cama-
Fill-
Port
Moor-
Ojai
Oxnard
Simi
Santa
Thousand
Ventura
rillo
more
Hueneme
park
Valley
Paula
Oaks
City
26
2003 Real Retail Sales Per Capita
Cities in Ventura County
thousands
13.8
12.1
8.4
7.9
7.9
7.2
4.4
3.6
2.5
2.2
Cama-
Fill-
Port
Moor-
Ojai
Oxnard
Simi
Santa
Thousand
Ventura
rillo
more
Hueneme
park
Valley
Paula
Oaks
City
27
Oxnard is Changing

• Agriculture
• Military
• Industry
• Commuters
• Demographics

28
An Introduction to Baby Boomers
29
What a drag it is getting old.
Mick Says
30
For the rest of history, there are unlikely ever
again to be more toddlers than grey heads.
The Economist Says
31
Baby Boomers

• are starting to retire
• are going to inherit 3 to 5 trillion
• like coastal California
• are used to getting what they want
• will get what they want

32
Interesting Facts

• Longer life does not imply more years of ill
  health.
• The onset of old age is related to years
  remaining, not age.
• Early gains in life expectancy were a result of
  childhood issues.
• Recent gains have impacted the years after
  retirement.
• In 2003, over half of all Harley-Davidson buyers
  were over 45.

33
Just the Numbers, Maam

• In 1963 there were 11 centenarians.
• In 2003 there were 2050 centenarians.
• By 2050 expect over a million centenarians.
• The first person to live to 150 years of age is
  probably already born.

34
Things Baby Boomers Buy

• Sports cars and Harleys
• Travel and cruises
• Exercise machines and electronic stuff
• Beauty aids and cosmetic surgery
• Viagra and hormone-replacement pills
• Hip and knee replacements

35
Better to burn out than to fade away.
Neil Young Says
36
Building Oxnard
37
Nominal Median Home Price
City of Oxnard
412,600
345,800
277,100
233,900
198,700
165,800
167,000
149,000
148,000
139,300
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
38
Look for Oxnard real estate prices to continue
their upward trend.
Bill Says
39
Housing Affordability
Ventura County
40
Housing Density
City of Oxnard
people per household
41
Total New Residential Building Permits
City of Oxnard
1145
1146
1083
1032
SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
MULTIPLE-FAMILY HOMES
785
503
473
448
425
387
367
348
290
253
227
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
42
New Non-Res Bldg. Permit Value by Type
City of Oxnard
43
Total Building Permit Value Growth
City of Oxnard
44
What are we going to do about farm-worker
housing?
Bill Says
45
The Forecast

• Outside Influences
• Macro Trends
• Short Term

46
Outside Influences
47
The United States Economy
48
Bill Says
Unless something goes seriously wrong, the
national economy looks pretty good.
49
How Bad is the California Economy?
Maybe not as bad as you think.
50
Job Growth Rates
Percent Change From Prior Year
51
California Issues

• Budget
• Energy
• Housing Costs
• Workers Compensation Insurance
• Health Insurance
• Tort Law
• High costs
• Onerous Regulation

52
What about the new Governor?
53
Clint Eastwood Says
A man has got to know his limitations.
54
California is unlikely to see per-capita
economic growth rates comparable to that of the
United States.
Bill Says
55
Trends
56
Remember the Baby Boomers
57
Display (Retail) Advertising
Tri-Counties
Jan. 2002 100
131.0
128.1
122.1
122.1
116.3
115.0
110.1
109.3
102.7
102.4
101.9
101.4
100.0
97.5
93.8
93.1
91.8
75.1
68.2
200201
200204
200207
200210
200301
200304
200307
200310
200401
200404
200407
58
Lines of Help Wanted Ads
Tri-Counties
59
Trends

• Los Angeles County
• Santa Barbara County
• Other Ventura County communities

60
TheShort Run
61
Ventura County
Output Share of Tri-Counties
61.7
61.4
61.2
60.0
59.0
56.5
55.9
55.4
54.8
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
62
Real Gross Regional Product Growth
Oxnard Metro Area
63
Real GRP per Worker Growth
Oxnard Metro Area
64
Oxnard Metro Area
Output Share of Ventura County
65
Total Employment (jobs)
Oxnard Metro Area
66
Total Employment Growth
Oxnard Metro Area
14.1
8.7
5.9
5.3
5.0
4.2
3.1
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.6
-0.5
-8.5
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
67
Nominal Average Salary
Oxnard Metro Area
68
Real Average Salary Growth
Oxnard Metro Area
69
Nominal Median Home Price
506,900
City of Oxnard
464,000
412,600
345,800
277,100
233,900
198,700
165,800
167,000
149,000
148,000
139,300
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
70
Real Median Home Price Growth
City of Oxnard
21.6
16.8
16.0
15.3
13.9
9.9
8.7
6.6
3.5
0.2
-3.3
-5.7
-5.7
-6.5
-8.8
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
71
Real Retail Sales per Capita Growth
City of Oxnard
72
Bill Says
Oxnard is still creating itself. It will be a
very different place in 10 years.
73
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