Distribution Systems Availability Assessment

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Distribution Systems Availability Assessment
Monte Carlo and Antithetic Variates Method
Andreea Ocnasu GIE - IDEA - France Yvon Bésanger
G2Elab - France Jean Pierre Rognon G2Elab -
France Philippe Carer EDF/RD - France
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Introduction

• Market liberalization strong development of
  Distributed
• Generation (DG)

• Operation schemes and operational reliability
  distribution
• system modification

Re-evaluation of distribution system reliability
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Method employed

• Time sequential Monte Carlo
• simulation gives the expected
• reliability indexes

• Monte Carlo acceleration gt
• variance reduction technique
• (Antithetic Variates)

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Application

• Small isolated distribution system with DG

FC 10kW fuel cell Cog 160kW cogeneration Cus
6kW customer Cus 30KW 30kW customer
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Results

• Relative uncertainty (precision) 7

Acceleration
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Final results
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Thank you!