PRA

1

• PRA 3
• Interannual and longer time variability in the
  SAMS region
• Need to define metrics for evaluation of the
  beginning of the monsoon season. Is it possible
  to define monsoon start from the moisture flux
  point of view ( a box in Central Brazil is a
  reliable measure or the flux along the northern
  boundary? Or is the moisture flux at 10S?.
  Charge to define the metrics and explore its
  use in diagnostic and operational work.
• Regional moisture recycling needs to be explored
  in the context of the memory of the system
  through soil moisture and the vegetation control
  on surface processes
• There are indications the coupling the
  meteorological model with other components of the
  climate system (ocean, biosphere) are important
  to understand the interannual to longer time
  scales in the SAMS region
• Some SH teleconnection patters are well studies
  such as the AAO, PSA1 and PSA2. However, there
  are other SH modes (e.g., summer connection
  between SACZ, SPCZ, SICZ) which are much less
  understood
• Important issue on predictability models
  reproduce the signal associates to major
  teleconnection patterns but the predictability is
  very low.
• What is the role of the interdecadal variability
  in the interannual and shorter time scales?
  E.g. are the weak/strong ENSO cases uniformly
  distributed in time? Is the probability of
  occurrence of extreme events associated to the
  longer time scales? Proxy data such as glacier
  ice cores, tree rings, speleothemes shoud be used
  to identify the decadal and longer time scale
  control.
• There is a strong concern about the metrics for
  classification of the ENSO events (CDC) and the
  potential impact of the metrics on the analysis
  on long term series in order to explore the
  longer time variability.