ARB Work Plan for Conducting an Airborne Environmental Fate and Transport Analysis of EthanolContain

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ARB Work Plan for Conductingan Airborne
Environmental Fateand Transport Analysisof
Ethanol-Containing Gasoline
July 12, 1999
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Staff and Contractors

• Coordination -- Scheible, Croes
• Emission Inventory -- Simeroth, Brisby, Vincent,
  Harley, Hebert
• Air Quality Modeling -- McNerny, DaMassa, Allen,
  Woodhouse
• Data Analysis -- Effa, Bradley, Luo, Grosjean

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Proposed Action

• Preliminary Analysis
• Directional change in exhaust and ambient air due
  to MTBE phase-out
• Modeling and Data Analyses
• Quantitative estimates
• Report
• Formal peer review by UC
• ARB review

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Fuels of Interest

• Pre-1996 Gasoline (pre-CBG)
• Current MTBE-Based Gasoline (CBG)
• 3 Fully Complying Non-MTBE Fuels
• Ethanol at 3.5 oxygen content
• Ethanol at 2.0 oxygen content
• Non-oxygenated

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Compounds of Interest

• Ethanol, Acetaldehyde, PAN
• MTBE, Formaldehyde, Isobutene
• Benzene, Toluene, Xylenes
• 1,3-Butadiene, n-Hexane
• Ozone, PM10, PM2.5, NO2, and PPN not expected to
  change

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Emission Inventory Component

• Total VOC and NOX Emissions
• Constrained by Predictive Model
• VOC Profiles and CO Emissions
• Measured for pre-CBG and CBG
• Estimated for 3 non-MTBE fuels
• Professor Harley Peer Review
• Limited Fuel and Exhaust Testing

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Air Quality Modeling Component

• Urban Airshed Model with SAPRC-97 Photochemical
  Mechanism
• August 27-29, 1987 Meteorology in South Coast Air
  Basin
• Emission Inventories
• 1987 -- model evaluation
• 1993 -- pre-CBG
• 1997 -- CBG
• 2003 -- CBG and 3 non-MTBE fuels

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Air Quality Model Output

• 1- and 24-Hour Average (Days 2 3)
• Compounds
• ethanol, PAN, MTBE, benzene, 1,3-butadiene
• acetaldehyde and formaldehyde (primary and
  secondary)
• ozone, PM10, PM2.5, NO2, PPN
• others as needed by OEHHA

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Data Analysis Component

• Previous Introductions of Ethanol
• Albuquerque, Brazil, Denver
• Extend Modeling Results
• peak 1- and 24-hour averages
• population-weighted annual averages
• spatial and temporal coverage of data varies, so
  use CO as surrogate
• special approaches for aldehydes and PAN

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Proposed Schedule

• Work Plan Review
• July 12 public workshop
• late July peer review
• Draft Report Review
• mid-September public workshop
• October peer review
• Final Report
• December 10-11 to ARB
• late December to Cal/EPA

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Proposed Peer Reviewers

• Subject to Cal/EPA and UC Approval
• Professor Roger Atkinson, UCR
• Professor Barbara Finlayson-Pitts, UCI
• Professor James Pitts, UCI Emeritus
• Professor John Seinfeld, CIT

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Requested Public Input

• Timely Reviews
• Work Plan -- especially proposed VOC profiles and
  modeling approach
• Draft Report
• Information on Denaturants and Co-solvents
• Current Ethanol Air Quality
• Join ARB Fuels List Serve
• http//www.arb.ca.gov/listserv/listserv.htm