The Axioms of Complex Environmental Systems

1
The Axioms of Complex Environmental Systems

• recognizing complexity when you see it

2
Axioms of Complex Environmental Systems

• Complexity is multi-disciplinary
• Leadership is a challenge
• Complexity is not deterministic, but it may be
  stochastic
• There are multiple best or even optimal
  solutions to problems
• Solutions that work in one time and place may not
  work in other times and places
• Complexity is characterized by an abundance of
  diverse data and information at many different
  temporal and spatial scales
• Interpretation is difficult
• Complex systems are stiff systems, i.e. some
  things change fast while other things change more
  slowly or some things change on small scales
  while other things change on big scales
• Delays in response make management difficult
• Cause and effect are not always closely related
  in time and space.
• Complex systems have no well defined beginning or
  end
• Complex systems are circular without beginning
  or end
• Complex systems are characterized by loops that
  result in positive and negative feedback.

3
The Laws of Complex Environmental Systems

• the strange ways that
• systems work

4
Laws of Complex Environmental Systems

• Todays problems come from yesterdays
  solutions.
• The harder you push, the harder the system pushes
  back.
• Behavior grows better before it grows worse.
• The easy way out usually leads back in.
• The cure can be worse than the disease.
• Faster is slower.
• Cause and effect are not closely related in time
  and space.
• Small changes can produce big results but the
  areas of highest leverage are often the least
  obvious.
• You can have your cake and eat it too but not
  at once.
• Dividing an elephant in half does not produce two
  small elephants.
• There is no blame.

5
Modeling Complex Environmental Systems

• trying to make some sense

6
Modeling Complex Environmental Systems
E
B
D
A
B
or
or
E
D
A
B
?
7
Controlling Complex Environmental Systems

• Places to Intervene
• Adaptive Management

8
Places to Intervene inComplex Environmental
Systems

• 9.  Numbers (subsidies, taxes, standards)
• 8.  Material stocks and flows
• 7.  Regulating negative feedback loops
• 6.  Driving positive feedback loops
• 5.  Information flows
• 4.  The rules of the system (incentives,
  punishment, constraints)
• 3.  The power of self-organization
• 2.  The goals of the system
• 1.  The mindset or paradigm out of which the
  goals, rules, feedback structure arise
• 0. The power to transcend paradigms

9
Adaptive Management ofComplex Environmental
Systems