A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming

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A System Dynamics Approach to Global Warming

• (Noah) Junho Kang

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Introduction

• Global Warming Debate
• Greenhouse gases
• Why should we worry?

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Purpose/Goals

• Create a convincing model of global warming
  scenario
• Complicated enough to explain the whole scenario
  to a reasonable extent, but simple enough to be
  understood easily and applied

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Scope of the Project

• Estimate, to a certain degree, the effects that
  increasing amount of Carbon Dioxide gas will have
  on the Earth's atmosphere over a fixed period of
  time. The "effects" currently include, but is not
  limited to, global temperatures, frequency of
  hurricanes, methane release, and other
  consequences that will arise from increasing
  global temperature.

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Background

• Daisyworld
• Parallel Computing-based Climate Simulations
• System Dynamics Modeling and Agent-based Modeling
• Netlogos System Dynamics Modeler

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System Dynamics Model (Carbon Cycle)
Ocean
Atmosphere
Fossil Fuel
Soil
Land Biota
Out/In (Negligible)
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Explanation of Variables Used

• Fossil Fuel Amount of Carbon present in Fossil
  Fuel
• Atmosphere Amount of Carbon inside Atmosphere,
  directly affects Global Temperature
• Land Biota Amount of Carbon present in Land
  organisms, like plants. Help control the amount
  of carbon by Photosynthesis/Respiration

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Explanation of Variables Used

• Soil Amount of Carbon present in Soil, controls
  the amount of Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere by
  respiration (and slowly recovers the amount of
  Fossil Fuel).
• Ocean Amount of Carbon present in Ocean, mostly
  in the form of Carbon Dioxide and Methane
  dissolved in water. Potentially very important,
  helps control amount of carbon by dissolving it.

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System Dynamics Model (Secondary)
Global Temperature
Ice
Hurricanes
Albedo
Ocean Temperature
Methane
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Explanation of Variables Used

• Global Temperature
• Amount of Ice Directly affects albedo of earth
• Albedo Reflectance of earth, ranging from 0-1
• Ocean Temperature
• Methane
• Hurricanes

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Other Factors

• Great ocean conveyer belt shut-down
• Changes in sunlight intensity
• Polar ice caps melt resulting in sudden salinity
  changes
• ?

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Netlogo Model
Secondary Model
Variables Used
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Results
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Results

• Temperature increase of about 1-5 degrees
  globally?
• Even if carbon output was to completely shut down
  now, temperature will keep on increasing for a
  while
• Results hint at a possibility of accelerating
  temperature increase, aided by melting of ice
  caps and release of methane gas