Realities NDFD, NDGD, IFPS

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Realities (NDFD, NDGD, IFPS)

• David Ruth
• Meteorological Development Laboratory
• National Weather Service, NOAA
• 3rd NCEP/NWS Ensemble User Workshop
• November 1, 2006

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The National Academies - 2003
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National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

• Contains a seamless mosaic of NWS digital
  forecasts
• Is available to all users and partners public
  and private
• Allows users and partners to create wide range of
  text, graphic, and image products

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How is NDFD Produced?
National Centers Model Guidance

• Detailed
• Interactive
• Collaborative

Grids
Local Digital Forecast Database
Field Offices
National Centers
Collaborate
Data and Science Focus
NWS Automated Products
User-Generated Products
National Digital Forecast Database
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES
ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70.
Digital
Text
Graphic
Voice
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Spatial Detail Evident in the NDFD
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Availability of NDFD

• Grids via FTP
• WMO GRIB v2 format
• CONUS, 16 CONUS sectors, Hawaii, Guam, and Puerto
  Rico
• GIS output available via downloadable GRIB
  decoder
• XML web service
• NDFD points in Extensible Markup Language (XML)
• Element, forecast time, and point location
  requested by user application
• Access via Simple Object Access Protocol
• Web graphics at weather.gov/forecasts/graphical

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Who downloads NDFD grids?
M2M User
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Commercial NDFD graphics
The Weather Underground
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Commercial NDFD graphics
Ham Weather
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Commercial NDFD graphics
AccuWeather Pro (by subscription)
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NDFD in commercial software
WeatherBug Plus (19.95)
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NDFD GIS display
ESRI ArcMap-ArcInfo
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NDFD point forecast via Google Maps
Weather Mole
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NDFD point forecast via Google Maps
Weather Bonk
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Route Forecast from NDFD
Weather Bonk
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Interactive NDFD Airport Forecasts
Weather Meister
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Observed Weather at 3/22 00z
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7 days of forecasts valid 3/22 00z
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NDFD Forecast Elements - original dozen -
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NDFD Forecast Elements - latest additions -
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NDFD Forecast Elements - contribution from SPC -
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NDFD Forecast Elements- contribution from CPC -
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NDFD Forecast Elements- proposed and deferred -
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NDFD Forecast Elements- next in line from WFOs -
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The Digital Forecast Process
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Interactive Forecast Preparation
Observations
User Products
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Proposed Course of Action2003 MDL Science Review

• Phase out software as an external MDL product
  line
• Establish MDL as world leader in the
  Probabilistic Real-time Interpretation of Models
  and Forecasts
• Make MDL interpretative products available in
  database that provides interoperability with NDFD

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PRIMF Digital Flow
Current Observation
Climatology
PRIMF Server
Numerical Output
NDFD
NDGD
NWS Forecast Offices and Centers
NWS Customers and Partners
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PRIMF Components

• High-resolution MOS and updates to MOS (i.e.,
  LAMP)
• Statistical interpretation of NDFD highlighting
  forecast uncertainty (NUANCE)
• Real-time forecast monitoring and feedback
• Probabilistic coastal hazards
• Verification of NDFD and NDGD

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NUANCE

• NUANCE Numerical Uncertainty Assessment of
  
• NDFD via Climatology and Ensembles
• Given the single value NDFD forecast for a
  weather element,
• recent NDFD performance,
• and related guidance (e.g., ensemble spread),
• quantify the expected variability of observations
  for that weather element.

http//ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/techprogram/p
aper_94464.htm
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Personal Views on Reality

• Forecasters at 120 WFOs neither have the time,
  expertise, or tools to quantify uncertainty for
  all NDFD elements.
• Information about forecast uncertainty can be
  derived from NDFD single value forecasts,
  climatology, and ensemble spread.
• NDFD and NDGD provide an ideal avenue to convey
  uncertainty information to those who can use it
  in digital form.
• Complex decision support applications and
  displays should be developed by private weather
  providers for specific user communities.
• Uncertainty information can be added to NWS
  end-user products created from NDFD and NDGD