Modeling Peru Upwelling Ecosystem Dynamics: from Physics to Anchovy

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Modeling Peru Upwelling Ecosystem Dynamics from
Physics to Anchovy
Yi Xu, Fei CHAI, Lei Shi University of
Maine Richard C. Dugdale (SFSU) Yi Chao
(JPL/NASA) Kenneth Rose (LSU) Francisco Chavez
(MBARI) Richard T. Barber (Duke University)
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Carbon, SIlicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem Model CoSINE
(Chai et al. 2002 Dugdale et al. 2002)
Air-Sea Exchange
Small Phytoplankton P1
Micro- Zooplankton Z1
Biological Uptake
Total CO2 TCO2
Grazing
NO3 Uptake
NH4 Uptake
Predation
Nitrate NO3
Iron
Excretion
Ammonium NH4
N-Uptake
Meso- zooplankton Z2
Fecal Pellet
Advection Mixing
Iron
Grazing
Fecal Pellet
Diatoms P2
Lost
Iron
Detritus-N DN
Detritus-Si DSi
Si-Uptake
Sinking
Physical Model
Silicate Si(OH)4
Dissolution
Sinking
Sinking
Chai et al., DSR 1996
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Basin to Regional to Local Physics and Biology
3-km
Multi-scale (or nested) ROMS modeling simulates
the 3D ocean at the spatial scale (e.g., 1-km)
measured by satellites
1-km
4-km
1-km
12-km
ocean observing system, data assimilation, real
time simulation, short- and long-term
forecasting
12-km SST
1) ROMS-CoSINE2) Coarse Resolution at 50-km3)
Eddy-Resolving at 12-km4) NCEP Daily and Monthly
Forcing
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ROMS-CoSINE (50-km) SST, 19-21 December 1998
ROMS-CoSINE Si(OH)4 Supply (WSi(OH)4 at 50m),
19-21 December 1998
ROMS-CoSINE Surface Diatoms, 19-21 December 1998
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ROMS-CoSINE (12-km) SimulationAnnual Mean
Conditions near Peru Coast
Surface Chlorophyll (mg/m3)
Sea Surface Temperature (oC)
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Surfare Chlorophyll Comparisonin situ, the
modeled, and SeaWiFS
Francisco Chavez
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Strong CCS Low Catchability
Weak CCS High catchability
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Diatoms
ROMS-CoSINE (12-km), Annual Mean Si(OH)4,
Diatoms, Meso-zooplankton along 10oS
Si(OH)4

• Meso
• zooplankton

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Jan.1998
ROMS-CoSINE (12-km), Si(OH)4 and Diatoms along
10oS
Jan. 1999
Si(OH)4
Offshore Distance
0
400 km

• Jan. 1999

Diatoms
Jan.1998
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ROMS-CoSINE (50-km) SST and Surface
Chlorophyll along 10oS during Jan. 1997 and Dec.
2004
SST

• Chlorophyll

Offshore Distance
0
700 km
Offshore Distance
0
700 km
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Seasonal Cycle of Surface Chlorophyll along the
Coast of Peru, 0-200km, 4oS-18oS
in situ

• SeaWiFS

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SST
Seasonal cycle of along shore wind and SST
(0-100km, 5oS-15oS)
along shore wind
Seasonal cycle of surface Si(OH)4 and chlorophyll
(0-100km, 5oS-15oS)

• Si(OH)4

Chlorophyll
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Time series measurements at Paita (5S), Peru
10m Nitrate
10m Chlorophyll
10m Coccolithophores
10m Dinoflagellates
10m Diatoms
F. Chavez
1982 1983
1984
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Offshore distance (400km - 0)
February (high chlorophyll), Si(OH)4 (low) along
10oS
Weaker wind Gentle upwelling Stratified Higher
biomass
Depth (0 -100m)

• August (low chlorophyll), Si(OH)4 (high) along
  10oS

Stronger wind Too much upwelling Dilution
effects Low biomass Deeper MLD
Depth (0 -100m)
Offshore distance (400km - 0)
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Monthly Mean SeaWiFS PAR (W m-2)
Peru Upwelling
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Anchovy spawning have two peaks a year
Eggs produced in the early year have
higher Recruitment (or grow faster and better)
Pauly 1989
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ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature,
Currents, Planktons
ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature,
Currents, Planktons
Life Cycle of Peruvian Anchovy, and Modeling
Linkage with ROMS-CoSINE
ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature,
Currents, Planktons
ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature,
Currents, Planktons
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Time series of SST, plankton, and recruitment
index along Peru coast
SST
Phytoplankton

• Zooplankton

Recruitment index (or how fast grow to 4cm)
1997 1998 1999 2000
2001
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1982-83 El Niño changed my life
1982 1983
1984
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California
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Peru
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De regreso al Peru
Underway measurements of ocean surface pCO2 along
the west coast of the Americas. Supported by
MBARI (central California), NOAA (CalCOFI) and
NASA (Chile, Mexico, Peru). PIs Chavez and
Friederich.
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Are physical models good enough for
biogeochemistry?
If not are they good enough for anything else?
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Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem
Model CoSiNE, Chai et al. 2002 Dugdale et al.
2002
Air-Sea Exchange
Small Phytoplankton P1
Micro- Zooplankton Z1
Biological Uptake
Total CO2 TCO2
Grazing
NO3 Uptake
NH4 Uptake
Predation
Nitrate NO3
Iron
Excretion
Ammonium NH4
N-Uptake
Meso- zooplankton Z2
Fecal Pellet
Advection Mixing
Iron
Grazing
Fecal Pellet
Diatoms P2
Lost
Iron
Detritus-N DN
Detritus-Si DSi
Si-Uptake
Sinking
Physical Model
Silicate Si(OH)4
Dissolution
Sinking
Sinking
Chai et al., DSR 1996
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A proposed system to deliver three-tier of
operational model forecasts for Peru coastal
upwelling ecosystem
Step4
ENSO forecast fields (3,6,9 month)
Wind Heat flux
Physical Model 12.5km ROMS (Yi Chao at JPL/NASA)
SST Stratification Upwelling x,y Currents
Interface process for user
Step1
Output1
Ecological Model CoSINE (Fei Chai)
Nutrients Phytoplankton Zooplankton
User
Step2
Output2
Fish Population Model (Fei Chai)
Larvae Juvenile Adult
Step3
Output3
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5/1/1999
7/31/1999
COADS 100 km Monthly Wind at M1
COAMPS 9 km Daily Wind at M1
5/8/1999
5/26/99
Surface NO3 Comparison at M1
9km daily wind
Cruise Data
Observed Mean
Cruise Data
COADS monthly wind
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7/31/1999
5/1/1999
COAMPS 9 km Daily Wind at M1
Upwelling Period
Bloom Period
Surface NO3 Comparison at M1
Cruise Data
9km daily wind
Observed Mean
Cruise Data
Surface Chlorophyll Comparison at M1
9km daily wind
COADS monthly wind
Observed Mean
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